NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+20OKC

OKC

35-7

11191

HOU

23-15

NBAThu, Jan 15FinalSeriesOKC leads series 2-0VegasOKC -4.5

OKC · top performer

Chet Holmgren

C · #7

21.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Kevin Durant

F · #7

11.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowOKC ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 18pp · 3rd Quarter · 3:01

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. HolmgrenC · #7	29	18	7-9	2-3	2-3	+12	9	1
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	33	20	6-11	1-3	7-8	+15	2	4
L. DortG · #5	21	13	5-8	3-5	—	+15	3	1
A. WigginsG · #21	19	5	2-8	1-4	—	+4	5	0
Jal. WilliamsG · #8	31	6	2-11	0-1	2-2	+11	5	10
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	16	6	2-4	0-2	2-2	+10	2	0
O. DiengF · #13	3	0	0-2	0-1	—	0	2	2
A. CarusoG · #9	18	5	2-7	1-5	—	+12	4	2
K. WilliamsG · #34	14	7	3-7	1-5	—	+9	2	0
I. JoeG · #11	8	6	2-5	2-4	—	-1	1	0
C. WallaceG · #22	22	8	3-7	2-4	—	+4	3	2
C. YoungbloodG · #3	3	0	—	—	—	0	1	0
A. MitchellG · #25	23	17	7-10	3-4	—	+9	5	3
Team		111	41-89	16-41	13-15		44	25

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	37	19	7-23	0-5	5-5	-20	7	3
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	34	17	5-15	3-6	4-4	-15	10	1
A. SengunC · #28	33	14	7-15	0-1	—	-15	13	5
J. OkogieG · #20	22	5	2-6	1-3	—	-10	5	1
A. ThompsonG · #1	40	13	4-16	—	5-8	-15	9	3
Bench
J. GreenF · #32	4	3	1-2	1-1	—	-2	2	0
J. TateF · #8	4	2	1-2	—	—	-2	0	0
S. AdamsC · #12	25	6	3-6	—	—	-7	11	0
A. HolidayG · #0	4	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
J. DavisonG · #4	21	5	2-9	1-5	—	-2	1	1
R. SheppardG · #15	19	7	3-10	1-3	—	-10	2	3
Team		91	35-104	7-24	14-17		60	17
DNP: C. Capela

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

OKC

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

41-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-104

FG %

16-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-24

13-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

OKC leads series 2-0

Oct 21

HOU124@

OKC125

Jan 16

OKC111@

HOU91today

Feb 7

HOU112@

OKC106

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

221.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

OKC-17564%

HOU+14541%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -4.5↗SpreadBet OKC -4.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

221.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat HOU 111-91. C. Holmgren led with 18 PTS, 9 REB, 1 AST. OKC outscored the other side 34-16 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs OKC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

OKCstarters 56% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 24 REB · 16 AST

GS 54

Bench(8)

49 PTS · 20 REB · 9 AST

GS 44

HOUstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 44 REB · 13 AST

GS 48

Bench(6)

23 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST

GS 19

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

OKC3rd Quarter · 5:28 · 69-63

+8pp→ 75% WP

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · misses driving floating jump shot

OKC3rd Quarter · 3:01 · 73-67

+18pp→ 78% WP

JD Davison · misses 25-foot three point jumper

OKC4th Quarter · 10:53 · 82-77

+9pp→ 74% WP

Ajay Mitchell · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
OKC	21	34	22	34	111
HOU	19	29	27	16	91

Period scoring

OKC won 3 · HOU won 1

Holmgren 11

Thompson 5

Gilgeous-Alexander 10

Jr. 8

Gilgeous-Alexander 9

Thompson 9

Mitchell 8

Sheppard 5

OKC

HOU

Shooting comparison

OKC

HOU

46%

41-89

34%

35-104

39%

16-41

3PT

29%

7-24

87%

13-15

82%

14-17

Play-by-play · 493 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 111·HOU 91
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 111·HOU 91
Q4·0.0
Rockets offensive team rebound
OKC 111·HOU 91
Q4·0.0
Jeff Green misses heave jump shot
OKC 111·HOU 91
Q4·1.9
shot clock turnover
OKC 111·HOU 91
Q4·26.0
Jeff Green makes 26-foot three point jumper
OKC 111·HOU 91
Q4·38.0
Jeff Green defensive rebound
OKC 111·HOU 88
Q4·39.9
Ousmane Dieng misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
OKC 111·HOU 88
Q4·49.8
Jae'Sean Tate makes 12-foot two point shot
OKC 111·HOU 88
Q4·1:02
Kenrich Williams makes 18-foot pullup jump shot
· ·
OKC 111·HOU 86
Q4·1:09
Chris Youngblood defensive rebound
OKC 109·HOU 86
Q4·1:10
Chris Youngblood blocks JD Davison 's 7-foot driving floating jump shot
·
OKC 109·HOU 86
Q4·1:27
Isaiah Joe makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ousmane Dieng assists)
·
OKC 109·HOU 86
Q4·1:49
Reed Sheppard makes 25-foot three pointer
OKC 106·HOU 86
Q4·2:02
Kenrich Williams makes 24-foot running jump shot (Ousmane Dieng assists)
· ·
OKC 106·HOU 83
Q4·2:08
Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound
OKC 103·HOU 83
Q4·2:09
Jeff Green misses running layup
OKC 103·HOU 83
Q4·2:16
Jeff Green defensive rebound
OKC 103·HOU 83
Q4·2:16
Ousmane Dieng misses running pullup jump shot
OKC 103·HOU 83
Q4·2:24
Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound
OKC 103·HOU 83
Q4·2:25
Jae'Sean Tate misses 10-foot fade away jump shot
OKC 103·HOU 83
Q4·2:34
Reed Sheppard defensive rebound
OKC 103·HOU 83
Q4·2:35
Isaiah Joe misses 24-foot three point jumper
OKC 103·HOU 83
Q4·2:48
Chris Youngblood enters the game for Alex Caruso
·
OKC 103·HOU 83
Q4·2:48
Kenrich Williams enters the game for Jalen Williams
· ·
OKC 103·HOU 83
Q4·2:48
Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Chet Holmgren
·
OKC 103·HOU 83
Q4·2:48
Isaiah Joe enters the game for Luguentz Dort
·
OKC 103·HOU 83
Q4·2:48
Ousmane Dieng enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
·
OKC 103·HOU 83
Q4·2:48
Thunder Full timeout
OKC 103·HOU 83
Q4·2:48
Alex Caruso defensive rebound
OKC 103·HOU 83

Betting line

OKC -4.5·O/U 221.5·OKC -175/HOU +145

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder went into Houston Rockets and beat them, 111–91. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

OKC -4.5 cashed (won by 20). Total stayed UNDER 221.5 by 19.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296
Jalen WilliamsOKC · G
DRIVES12.594

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · OKC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs OKC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high

Rebounds

Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high
Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high

Assists

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high

Blocks

Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Marcus SmartHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

OKC

league avg

HOU

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

48.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

47.4%

118.5

PPG

◀

114.9

114.1

25.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

11.9

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR