MEM
17-23
ORL
23-18
MEM · top performer
Jaren Jackson Jr.
F · #8
30
Pts
3
Reb
1
Ast
ORL · top performer
Paolo Banchero
F · #5
26
Pts
13
Reb
4
Ast
Biggest swing: 18pp · 1st Quarter · 10:31
NBA · Memphis Grizzlies at Orlando Magic · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 33 | 30 | 12-22 | 3-5 | 3-3 | -21 | 3 | 1 | |
| 27 | 17 | 6-12 | 3-7 | 2-2 | +5 | 3 | 2 | |
| 18 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-2 | — | -22 | 2 | 0 | |
| 30 | 6 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| 27 | 7 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 3-3 | +10 | 7 | 11 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 30 | 18 | 6-11 | 4-4 | 2-3 | -1 | 5 | 1 | |
| 22 | 15 | 5-6 | 3-3 | 2-2 | +21 | 1 | 2 | |
| 14 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-3 | — | -13 | 2 | 2 | |
| 18 | 6 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | |
| 21 | 10 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 2-2 | -14 | 1 | 4 | |
| Team | 111 | 38-83 | 17-36 | 18-21 | 37 | 27 | ||
| DNP: B. Clarke, S. Pippen Jr. | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 37 | 26 | 9-16 | 4-8 | 4-4 | +13 | 13 | 4 | |
| 27 | 18 | 6-16 | 3-4 | 3-4 | +5 | 9 | 2 | |
| 29 | 9 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 2-2 | +13 | 6 | 3 | |
| 34 | 13 | 5-13 | 1-5 | 2-2 | +16 | 4 | 5 | |
| 36 | 21 | 7-13 | 4-7 | 3-3 | +17 | 6 | 7 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 14 | 7 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 2-2 | -2 | 4 | 0 | |
| 22 | 8 | 3-11 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | |
| 18 | 9 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | -7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 12 | 5 | 2-5 | — | 1-2 | -10 | 3 | 1 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-3 | — | -10 | 0 | 2 | |
| Team | 118 | 41-95 | 15-40 | 21-23 | 54 | 28 | ||
| DNP: J. Isaac, J. Cain, J. Howard, J. Richardson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
43
27
Ast
28
Team stats
MEM
Away
Stat
ORL
Home
38-83
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
41-95
46
FG %
43
17-36
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
15-40
18-21
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
21-23
27
Assists
28
16
Turnovers
16
Season series
ORL leads series 1-0
MEM111@ORL118todayORL109@MEM126Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
ORL -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
Total
227.5
Standard · +1.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MEM+19034%ORL-23070%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
0.0 since open
Total
227.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
ORL beat MEM 118-111. P. Banchero paced them with 26 PTS, 13 REB, 4 AST. MEM outscored the other side 39-23 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ORL vs MEM
Starters vs bench
production by unitMEMstarters 56% of ptsStarters(5)
62 PTS · 20 REB · 15 AST
GS 46
Bench(5)
49 PTS · 17 REB · 12 AST
GS 39
ORLstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
87 PTS · 38 REB · 21 AST
GS 76
Bench(5)
31 PTS · 16 REB · 7 AST
GS 24
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactFranz Wagner · lost ball turnover (Jaren Jackson Jr. steals)
Vince Williams Jr. · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Santi Aldama assists)
Santi Aldama · misses free throw 3 of 3
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 39 | 28 | 12 | 32 | 111 |
| ORL | 23 | 35 | 26 | 34 | 118 |
Period scoring
MEM won 1 · ORL won 3
Q1
Aldama 10
Penda 13
Q2
Jr. 15
Banchero 11
Q3
Coward 4
Black 11
Q4
Jr. 10
Wagner 13
Shooting comparison
46%
38-83
FG
43%
41-95
47%
17-36
3PT
38%
15-40
86%
18-21
FT
91%
21-23
Play-by-play · 491 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MEM 111·ORL 118
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MEM 111·ORL 118
- Q4·6.2
Franz Wagner defensive rebound
·
MEM 111·ORL 118
- Q4·8.0
Cedric Coward misses 23-foot three point jumper
MEM 111·ORL 118
- Q4·8.9
Grizzlies Full timeout
MEM 111·ORL 118
- Q4·8.9
Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 111·ORL 118
- Q4·8.9
Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 111·ORL 117
- Q4·8.9
Santi Aldama personal take foul
MEM 111·ORL 116
+1pp
- Q4·10.0
Cedric Coward makes driving layup
MEM 111·ORL 116
- Q4·15.5
Franz Wagner makes free throw 2 of 2
·
MEM 109·ORL 116
−0.6pp
- Q4·15.5
Cam Spencer enters the game for Vince Williams Jr.
·
MEM 109·ORL 115
- Q4·15.5
Franz Wagner makes free throw 1 of 2
·
MEM 109·ORL 115
- Q4·15.5
Vince Williams Jr. personal take foul
MEM 109·ORL 114
+3pp
- Q4·21.7
Vince Williams Jr. enters the game for Cam Spencer
·
MEM 109·ORL 114
- Q4·21.7
Cedric Coward out of bounds bad pass turnover
MEM 109·ORL 114
+5pp
- Q4·26.4
Cam Spencer defensive rebound
MEM 109·ORL 114
- Q4·29.7
Paolo Banchero misses 9-foot two point shot
MEM 109·ORL 114
−2pp
- Q4·44.7
Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound
MEM 109·ORL 114
+1pp
- Q4·47.1
Cedric Coward misses 22-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
MEM 109·ORL 114
+5pp
- Q4·1:02
Grizzlies Full timeout
MEM 109·ORL 114
- Q4·1:03
Franz Wagner makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Desmond Bane assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
MEM 109·ORL 114
+5pp
- Q4·1:18
Anthony Black defensive rebound
MEM 109·ORL 112
+2pp
- Q4·1:21
Cam Spencer misses 11-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
MEM 109·ORL 112
+7pp
- Q4·1:38
Grizzlies defensive team rebound
MEM 109·ORL 112
- Q4·1:39
Franz Wagner misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
·
MEM 109·ORL 112
−12pp
- Q4·1:39
Franz Wagner makes free throw 1 of 2
·
MEM 109·ORL 112
+2pp
- Q4·1:39
Cedric Coward loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
MEM 109·ORL 111
+10pp
- Q4·1:39
Magic defensive team rebound
MEM 109·ORL 111
+3pp
- Q4·1:39
Cam Spencer misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MEM 109·ORL 111
+8pp
- Q4·1:43
Santi Aldama offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MEM 109·ORL 111
−10pp
Betting line
ORL -5.5·O/U 227.5·MEM +190/ORL -230
Recap · NBA
rlando Magic held off Memphis Grizzlies, 118–111.
ORL -5.5 cashed (won by 7). Total cleared the 227.5 OVER by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort- Paolo BancheroORL · FDRIVES18.699
Franz WagnerORL · FDEFL4.399
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · CCONT9.197
Anthony BlackORL · GDEFL3.797- Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH · FCONT9.197
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MEM favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ORL vs MEM.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
165
projections · 125 high confidence
Points
- Paolo BancheroORL23.9± 9.4high
- Ty JeromeMEM18.9± 4.2medium
- Desmond BaneORL18.8± 7.4high
Rebounds
- Zach EdeyMEM11.3± 7.8low
- Paolo BancheroORL8.3± 2.3high
- Wendell Carter Jr.ORL7.4± 4.7high
Assists
- Paolo BancheroORL6.0± 2.3high
- Ty JeromeMEM5.4± 2.7medium
- Walter Clayton Jr.MEM4.7± 2.9high
Blocks
- Zach EdeyMEM1.9± 2.3low
- Goga BitadzeORL1.4± 1.2high
- Wendell Carter Jr.ORL1.3± 0.7high
Steals
- Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM1.9± 2.1low
- Jalen SuggsORL1.8± 1.5high
- Taylor HendricksMEM1.5± 2.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MEM
league avg
ORL
53.3%
Effective FG%
54.4
52.5%
45.6%
FG%
47.0
45.9%
114.7
PPG
114.9
114.2
27.8
Assists / G
25.0
26.0
14.6
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.7