NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11SAC

25-15

101112

SAC

11-30

NBAWed, Jan 14FinalSeriesSAC leads series 1-0VegasNY -10.5

NY · top performer

Mitchell Robinson

C · #23

12.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

DeMar DeRozan

G · #10

22.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ SAC

Biggest swing: 12pp · 2nd Quarter · 7:57

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	27	15	5-13	0-6	5-8	-16	3	4
K. TownsC · #32	33	13	5-14	0-1	3-4	-8	4	1
J. HartG · #3	32	10	4-7	2-4	0-2	-13	5	5
M. BridgesG · #25	36	19	6-20	2-9	5-5	-11	3	1
J. BrunsonG · #11	5	4	2-3	0-1	—	-8	0	0
Bench
G. YabuseleF · #28	6	2	1-5	0-4	—	0	3	0
P. DadietF · #4	3	0	—	—	—	+3	0	0
M. DiawaraF · #51	3	0	—	—	—	+3	2	0
M. RobinsonC · #23	19	8	3-3	—	2-4	-3	11	0
A. HukportiC · #55	3	2	1-1	—	—	+3	0	0
J. ClarksonG · #00	23	11	5-11	1-4	—	0	3	1
M. McBrideG · #2	28	10	4-14	2-8	—	-7	6	6
T. KolekG · #13	24	7	3-9	1-4	—	+2	5	5
Team		101	39-100	8-41	15-23		45	23

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	39	20	7-14	2-4	4-7	+16	14	2
M. RaynaudC · #42	27	10	4-6	0-1	2-2	+13	4	0
R. WestbrookG · #18	39	19	6-13	2-6	5-7	+4	6	11
D. DeRozanG · #10	41	27	7-16	1-3	12-13	+11	6	5
Z. LaVineG · #8	36	25	8-14	5-9	4-4	+16	5	1
Bench
D. CardwellC · #32	21	2	1-2	—	—	-2	6	1
M. MonkG · #0	19	9	2-7	0-2	5-5	-5	3	3
K. EllisG · #23	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	0	0	0
N. CliffordG · #5	13	0	0-1	0-1	—	+2	4	0
Team		112	35-74	10-27	32-38		48	23
DNP: D. McDermott, D. Saric, D. Eubanks, D. Schroder, D. Plowden, D. Carter

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

39-100

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-74

FG %

8-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-27

15-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

32-38

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SAC leads series 1-0

Jan 15

NY101@

SAC112today

Jan 28

SAC87@

NY103

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY-45582%

SAC+35022%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -10.5↗SpreadBet NY -10.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SAC beat NY 112-101. D. DeRozan paced them with 27 PTS, 6 REB, 5 AST. SAC outscored the other side 32-17 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

61 PTS · 15 REB · 11 AST

GS 39

Bench(8)

40 PTS · 30 REB · 12 AST

GS 37

SACstarters 90% of pts

Starters(5)

101 PTS · 35 REB · 19 AST

GS 83

Bench(4)

11 PTS · 13 REB · 4 AST

GS 8

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY1st Quarter · 3.1 · 17-32

+7pp→ 33% WP

Zach LaVine · lost ball turnover (Jordan Clarkson steals)

SAC2nd Quarter · 7:57 · 26-43

+12pp→ 77% WP

Maxime Raynaud · makes 5-foot floating jump shot (Precious Achiuwa assists)

SAC2nd Quarter · 2:05 · 36-50

+7pp→ 79% WP

Karl-Anthony Towns · misses driving floating jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	17	25	34	25	101
SAC	32	24	40	16	112

Period scoring

NY won 2 · SAC won 2

Towns 7

DeRozan 10

Hart 7

LaVine 12

Bridges 12

Westbrook 32

McBride 7

Westbrook 6

SAC

Shooting comparison

SAC

39%

39-100

47%

35-74

20%

8-41

3PT

37%

10-27

65%

15-23

84%

32-38

Play-by-play · 497 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 101·SAC 112
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 101·SAC 112
Q4·16.4
Mohamed Diawara out of bounds lost ball turnover
NY 101·SAC 112
Q4·25.5
Russell Westbrook makes 21-foot pullup jump shot (Precious Achiuwa assists)
·
NY 101·SAC 112
Q4·48.2
Guerschon Yabusele makes 4-foot layup (Tyler Kolek assists)
·
NY 101·SAC 110
Q4·55.4
Guerschon Yabusele defensive rebound
NY 99·SAC 110
Q4·55.4
Precious Achiuwa misses 26-foot three point jumper
NY 99·SAC 110
Q4·1:21
Tyler Kolek makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot
NY 99·SAC 110
Q4·1:27
Guerschon Yabusele defensive rebound
NY 96·SAC 110
Q4·1:28
Zach LaVine misses 23-foot three point jumper
NY 96·SAC 110
Q4·1:48
Ariel Hukporti makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Tyler Kolek assists)
·
NY 96·SAC 110
Q4·1:55
Russell Westbrook makes 17-foot fade away jump shot
NY 94·SAC 110
Q4·2:13
Russell Westbrook defensive rebound
NY 94·SAC 108
Q4·2:14
Guerschon Yabusele misses 22-foot three point jumper
NY 94·SAC 108
Q4·2:16
Mohamed Diawara offensive rebound
NY 94·SAC 108
Q4·2:20
Guerschon Yabusele misses 23-foot three point jumper
NY 94·SAC 108
Q4·2:33
Mohamed Diawara defensive rebound
NY 94·SAC 108
Q4·2:34
Precious Achiuwa misses free throw 2 of 2
NY 94·SAC 108
Q4·2:34
Kings offensive team rebound
NY 94·SAC 108
Q4·2:34
Precious Achiuwa misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 94·SAC 108
Q4·2:34
Pacome Dadiet enters the game for Mikal Bridges
·
NY 94·SAC 108
Q4·2:34
Guerschon Yabusele enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
NY 94·SAC 108
Q4·2:34
Mohamed Diawara enters the game for OG Anunoby
·
NY 94·SAC 108
Q4·2:34
Ariel Hukporti enters the game for Miles McBride
·
NY 94·SAC 108
Q4·2:34
Tyler Kolek enters the game for Jordan Clarkson
·
NY 94·SAC 108
Q4·2:34
OG Anunoby shooting foul
NY 94·SAC 108
Q4·2:35
Precious Achiuwa offensive rebound
NY 94·SAC 108
Q4·2:36
Russell Westbrook misses 22-foot three point jumper
NY 94·SAC 108
Q4·2:54
Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound
NY 94·SAC 108
Q4·2:56
Mikal Bridges misses 11-foot pullup jump shot
NY 94·SAC 108

Betting line

NY -10.5·O/U 229.5·NY -455/SAC +350

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

acramento Kings held off New York Knicks, 112–101.

SAC +10.5 cashed (NY lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 229.5 by 16.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.198
OG AnunobyNY · F
CONT8.496
Karl-Anthony TownsNY · C
CONT7.693
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SAC vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
OG AnunobyNY
18.6± 7.0high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
18.0± 12.6high

Rebounds

Karl-Anthony TownsNY
10.8± 3.1high
Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high

Assists

Jalen BrunsonNY
6.2± 3.2high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high
Josh HartNY
4.6± 1.9high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high
OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high
OG AnunobyNY
1.5± 1.3high
Jalen BrunsonNY
1.2± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

SAC

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

48.0%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.7%

116.4

PPG

◀

114.9

111.0

27.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.5

12.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR