NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9DEN

DEN

28-13

118109

DAL

15-26

NBAWed, Jan 14FinalSeriesDAL leads series 2-1VegasDAL -1.5

DEN · top performer

Jamal Murray

G · #27

20.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Caleb Martin

F · #16

17.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDEN ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 9pp · 4th Quarter · 10:17

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. GordonF · #32	30	22	8-12	3-5	3-5	+3	6	3
S. JonesF · #21	32	10	3-5	2-4	2-2	0	5	2
J. MurrayG · #27	38	33	13-24	2-6	5-5	+10	2	5
J. PickettG · #24	28	9	3-9	2-4	1-1	+1	6	3
P. WatsonG · #8	31	18	6-12	2-5	4-5	+2	5	2
Bench
Z. NnajiF · #22	17	4	1-4	0-2	2-2	+7	5	1
D. Holmes IIF · #14	5	3	1-2	1-2	—	+6	2	0
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	36	12	4-12	4-10	—	+12	3	4
B. BrownG · #11	24	7	3-5	—	1-2	+4	5	1
Team		118	42-85	16-38	18-22		39	21
DNP: H. Tyson, J. Strawther, C. Jones

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GaffordF · #21	18	6	2-2	—	2-4	-6	10	0
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	31	12	4-13	0-3	4-7	-8	6	2
N. MarshallF · #13	38	24	9-16	0-3	6-8	-3	5	3
C. FlaggF · #32	15	6	3-9	0-3	—	-11	1	1
J. HardyG · #1	28	8	3-11	1-6	1-1	-5	4	1
Bench
D. PowellF · #7	18	5	2-2	—	1-1	-4	5	0
C. MartinF · #16	23	15	7-9	1-3	—	+17	4	3
K. ThompsonG · #31	23	8	3-8	2-7	—	-9	1	1
B. WilliamsG · #10	25	20	6-13	0-3	8-12	+4	7	1
R. NembhardG · #9	15	5	2-6	1-3	—	-14	3	4
M. KellyG · #14	5	0	0-4	0-3	—	-6	1	0
Team		109	41-93	5-34	22-33		47	16
DNP: D. Russell

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DEN

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

42-85

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-93

FG %

16-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-34

18-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-33

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DAL leads series 2-1

Dec 2

DAL131@

DEN121

Dec 24

DEN130@

DAL131

Jan 15

DEN118@

DAL109today

Mar 26

DAL135@

DEN142

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DEN-10551%

DAL-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DEN beat DAL 118-109. J. Murray paced them with 33 PTS, 2 REB, 5 AST. DEN outscored the other side 34-23 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs DEN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DENstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

92 PTS · 24 REB · 15 AST

GS 67

Bench(4)

26 PTS · 15 REB · 6 AST

GS 22

DALstarters 51% of pts

Starters(5)

56 PTS · 26 REB · 7 AST

GS 34

Bench(6)

53 PTS · 21 REB · 9 AST

GS 46

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DEN1st Quarter · 9:01 · 6-5

+7pp→ 48% WP

Jamal Murray · makes free throw 1 of 2

DAL4th Quarter · 10:56 · 88-83

+7pp→ 24% WP

Ryan Nembhard · makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Caleb Martin assists)

DAL4th Quarter · 10:17 · 91-85

+9pp→ 28% WP

Bruce Brown · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DEN	29	34	25	30	118
DAL	23	23	32	31	109

Period scoring

DEN won 2 · DAL won 2

Murray 14

Flagg 6

Pickett 6

Marshall 11

Murray 8

Marshall 7

Murray 11

Williams 11

DEN

DAL

Shooting comparison

DEN

DAL

49%

42-85

44%

41-93

42%

16-38

3PT

15%

5-34

82%

18-22

67%

22-33

Play-by-play · 477 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DEN 118·DAL 109
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DEN 118·DAL 109
Q4·16.4
Peyton Watson defensive rebound
DEN 118·DAL 109
Q4·19.6
Jaden Hardy misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
DEN 118·DAL 109
Q4·25.6
Peyton Watson makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 118·DAL 109
Q4·25.6
Peyton Watson makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 117·DAL 109
Q4·25.6
Brandon Williams personal take foul
DEN 116·DAL 109
−0.6pp
Q4·28.6
Brandon Williams makes driving layup
DEN 116·DAL 109
Q4·33.3
Aaron Gordon makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 116·DAL 107
Q4·33.3
Nuggets offensive team rebound
DEN 115·DAL 107
Q4·33.3
Aaron Gordon misses free throw 1 of 2
DEN 115·DAL 107
Q4·33.3
Brandon Williams personal take foul
DEN 115·DAL 107
−0.5pp
Q4·43.5
P.J. Washington out of bounds bad pass turnover
DEN 115·DAL 107
−1pp
Q4·46.7
Tim Hardaway Jr. vs. Brandon Williams (P.J. Washington gains possession)
· ·
DEN 115·DAL 107
Q4·56.5
Jamal Murray makes 15-foot step back jumpshot
DEN 115·DAL 107
−2pp
Q4·1:12
Mavericks Full timeout
DEN 113·DAL 107
Q4·1:12
Brandon Williams makes running layup
DEN 113·DAL 107
+2pp
Q4·1:15
Brandon Williams defensive rebound
DEN 113·DAL 105
Q4·1:17
Jamal Murray misses driving layup
DEN 113·DAL 105
+2pp
Q4·1:39
Jaden Hardy personal foul
DEN 113·DAL 105
−1pp
Q4·1:40
Brandon Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 113·DAL 105
−1pp
Q4·1:40
Brandon Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 113·DAL 104
Q4·1:40
Spencer Jones shooting foul
·
DEN 113·DAL 103
+2pp
Q4·1:43
Brandon Williams defensive rebound
DEN 113·DAL 103
Q4·1:44
Jamal Murray misses 17-foot step back jumpshot
DEN 113·DAL 103
Q4·2:04
P.J. Washington makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 113·DAL 103
−0.6pp
Q4·2:04
P.J. Washington makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 113·DAL 102
Q4·2:04
Jamal Murray shooting foul
DEN 113·DAL 101
+0.9pp
Q4·2:08
Peyton Watson lost ball turnover (P.J. Washington steals)
·
DEN 113·DAL 101
Q4·2:35
Caleb Martin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandon Williams assists)
·
DEN 113·DAL 101

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 224.5·DEN -105/DAL -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

enver Nuggets went into Dallas Mavericks and beat them, 118–109.

DEN +1.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total cleared the 224.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796
Cooper FlaggDAL · F
DRIVES12.894
Aaron GordonDEN · F
CONT6.790

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DEN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DEN

league avg

DAL

57.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

49.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.6%

121.1

PPG

◀

114.9

114.1

28.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.3

12.1

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR