NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3NO

BKN

11-27

113116

10-33

NBAWed, Jan 14FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNO -1.5

BKN · top performer

Egor Demin

G · #8

16.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NO · top performer

Trey Murphy III

F · #25

31.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBKN ↔ NO

Biggest swing: 23pp · 4th Quarter · 10.6

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. Porter Jr.F · #17	32	20	7-20	4-12	2-2	-2	7	1
N. ClowneyF · #21	31	6	3-7	0-3	—	-2	7	6
N. ClaxtonC · #33	29	10	5-10	—	0-1	+2	6	0
D. PowellG · #4	24	16	6-10	2-5	2-3	+5	5	2
E. DeminG · #8	29	17	6-10	5-9	—	+2	0	5
Bench
D. WolfF · #2	16	5	2-5	1-3	—	+1	5	1
D. SharpeC · #20	19	15	7-9	—	1-2	-5	9	0
T. MannG · #14	17	3	1-1	1-1	0-2	-3	2	3
C. ThomasG · #24	24	16	6-15	2-5	2-2	-8	1	5
N. TraoreG · #88	19	5	2-8	1-5	—	-5	1	1
Team		113	45-95	16-43	7-12		43	24
DNP: J. Wilson, T. Martin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	30	25	11-14	—	3-5	-17	6	2
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	38	34	12-22	5-13	5-7	+15	9	5
D. QueenC · #22	16	4	0-5	—	4-4	-14	6	4
S. BeyG · #41	26	12	3-8	1-3	5-6	-6	4	1
J. FearsG · #0	30	7	3-13	1-4	—	+8	7	4
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	18	8	3-5	1-2	1-1	+7	3	1
Y. MissiC · #21	34	12	6-13	—	—	+23	12	4
J. PooleG · #3	18	7	2-7	2-4	1-2	-2	2	2
B. McGowensG · #11	15	5	2-5	1-3	—	+10	2	1
J. HawkinsG · #24	15	2	1-5	0-4	—	-9	2	0
Team		116	43-97	11-33	19-25		53	24
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, M. Peavy, T. Alexander

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BKN

Away

Stat

Home

45-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-97

FG %

16-43

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-33

7-12

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 6

NO101@

BKN119

Jan 15

BKN113@

NO116today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NO -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

232.5

Standard · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BKN-10852%

NO-11253%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NO -1.5↗SpreadBet NO -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

232.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NO beat BKN 116-113. T. Murphy III paced them with 34 PTS, 9 REB, 5 AST. Trey Murphy III's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NO vs BKN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BKNstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 25 REB · 14 AST

GS 53

Bench(5)

44 PTS · 18 REB · 10 AST

GS 31

NOstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 32 REB · 16 AST

GS 73

Bench(5)

34 PTS · 21 REB · 8 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BKN4th Quarter · 1:28 · 110-107

+20pp→ 71% WP

Egor Demin · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Noah Clowney assists)

NO4th Quarter · 1:04 · 110-110

+21pp→ 50% WP

Saddiq Bey · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Yves Missi assists)

NO4th Quarter · 10.6 · 110-113

+23pp→ 96% WP

Trey Murphy III · makes free throw 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BKN	31	24	32	26	113
NO	27	27	33	29	116

Period scoring

BKN won 1 · NO won 3

Jr. 9

McGowens 11

Demin 6

Williamson 22

Thomas 8

Williamson 14

Powell 7

III 13

BKN

Shooting comparison

BKN

47%

45-95

44%

43-97

37%

16-43

3PT

33%

11-33

58%

7-12

76%

19-25

Play-by-play · 476 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BKN 113·NO 116
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BKN 113·NO 116
+1pp
Q4·1.0
Nets offensive team rebound
BKN 113·NO 116
−0.5pp
Q4·1.0
Michael Porter Jr. misses 34-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
BKN 113·NO 116
+6pp
Q4·4.6
Saddiq Bey makes free throw 2 of 2
BKN 113·NO 116
−2pp
Q4·4.6
Michael Porter Jr. enters the game for Terance Mann
·
BKN 113·NO 115
Q4·4.6
Yves Missi enters the game for Jordan Poole
· ·
BKN 113·NO 115
Q4·4.6
Karlo Matkovic enters the game for Jeremiah Fears
·
BKN 113·NO 115
Q4·4.6
Saddiq Bey makes free throw 1 of 2
BKN 113·NO 115
+0.8pp
Q4·4.6
Nic Claxton personal foul
BKN 113·NO 114
+4pp
Q4·5.0
Terance Mann enters the game for Michael Porter Jr.
·
BKN 113·NO 114
Q4·5.0
Jordan Poole enters the game for Karlo Matkovic
· ·
BKN 113·NO 114
Q4·5.0
Jeremiah Fears enters the game for Yves Missi
·
BKN 113·NO 114
Q4·5.0
Pelicans Full timeout
BKN 113·NO 114
+2pp
Q4·5.8
Drake Powell makes 26-foot three pointer
BKN 113·NO 114
−2pp
Q4·10.6
Trey Murphy III makes free throw 2 of 2
BKN 110·NO 114
−4pp
Q4·10.6
Trey Murphy III makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
BKN 110·NO 113
+23pp
Q4·10.6
(00:10.6) [Nets] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Nets] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
BKN 110·NO 112
−12pp
Q4·10.6
Nets Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
BKN 110·NO 112
−10pp
Q4·10.6
Nic Claxton personal foulBIG MOMENT
BKN 110·NO 112
+10pp
Q4·10.6
Trey Murphy III defensive rebound
BKN 110·NO 112
+4pp
Q4·14.6
Michael Porter Jr. misses 22-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
BKN 110·NO 112
+8pp
Q4·21.1
Karlo Matkovic enters the game for Jeremiah Fears
·
BKN 110·NO 112
Q4·21.1
Nets Full timeout
BKN 110·NO 112
Q4·21.1
Saddiq Bey makes driving dunkBIG MOMENT
BKN 110·NO 112
+18pp
Q4·21.9
Saddiq Bey offensive rebound
BKN 110·NO 110
+5pp
Q4·25.3
Trey Murphy III misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
BKN 110·NO 110
−6pp
Q4·47.8
Trey Murphy III defensive rebound
BKN 110·NO 110
+2pp
Q4·51.2
Egor Demin misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
BKN 110·NO 110
+6pp
Q4·1:04
Saddiq Bey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Yves Missi assists)BIG MOMENT
·
BKN 110·NO 110
+21pp

Betting line

NO -1.5·O/U 232.5·BKN -108/NO -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew Orleans Pelicans held off Brooklyn Nets, 116–113. Decided by 3.

NO -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 232.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796
Michael Porter Jr.BKN · F
USG%29.995
Nic ClaxtonCHI · C
CONT7.392
Trey Murphy IIINO · F
DEFL2.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BKN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NO vs BKN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Michael Porter Jr.BKN
22.7± 6.2high
Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high

Rebounds

Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
Julius RandleBKN
7.2± 2.1high
Michael Porter Jr.BKN
6.9± 5.2high

Assists

Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Jeremiah FearsNO
4.2± 1.9high
Ben SarafBKN
3.7± 1.9high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Derik QueenNO
1.0± 0.9high
Josh MinottBKN
0.9± 1.2high

Steals

Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high
Trey Murphy IIINO
1.4± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BKN

league avg

52.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

52.7%

44.3%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.6%

105.9

PPG

114.9

▶

115.5

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

25.1

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR