NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+14TOR

TOR

25-17

115101

IND

9-32

NBAWed, Jan 14FinalSeriesTOR leads series 3-0VegasIND -1.5

TOR · top performer

Scottie Barnes

F · #4

27.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Pascal Siakam

F · #43

14.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 10pp · 4th Quarter · 4:37

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	36	30	12-23	3-6	3-4	0	7	4
J. BattleF · #77	20	5	2-4	1-2	—	+24	3	1
S. BarnesF · #4	38	26	10-16	1-3	5-9	+14	7	13
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	33	10	4-10	0-1	2-2	+23	10	3
J. SheadG · #23	34	7	2-9	1-3	2-2	+4	3	6
Bench
J. MogboF · #2	1	0	—	—	0-2	0	0	0
A.J. LawsonG · #0	17	5	2-5	1-3	—	-18	6	0
O. AgbajiG · #30	24	10	3-7	2-5	2-2	+12	1	0
A. MartinG · #55	7	1	—	—	1-2	+1	1	0
G. DickG · #1	30	21	9-15	1-5	2-3	+10	11	3
Team		115	44-89	10-28	17-26		49	30
DNP: G. Temple, I. Quickley

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	35	26	10-23	4-11	2-3	-4	10	4
J. HuffC · #32	16	7	3-6	0-3	1-1	-10	4	0
A. NembhardG · #2	32	14	4-10	0-3	6-6	-21	2	6
A. NesmithG · #23	31	6	1-12	0-8	4-4	-25	5	2
J. FurphyG · #12	26	10	3-6	2-4	2-8	+6	10	2
Bench
J. WalkerF · #5	18	11	4-10	3-5	—	-14	1	2
T. BradleyC · #13	20	2	—	—	2-2	+3	4	0
M. PotterC · #11	8	0	0-2	0-2	—	-16	1	0
T.J. McConnellG · #9	21	8	4-8	0-1	—	+8	2	6
E. ThompsonG · #55	1	0	—	—	—	0	1	0
B. SheppardG · #26	13	3	1-1	—	1-1	-9	1	2
Q. JacksonG · #29	19	14	3-8	3-5	5-6	+12	5	2
K. JonesG · #7	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		101	33-86	12-42	23-31		46	26

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

IND

Home

44-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-86

FG %

10-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-42

17-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-31

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR leads series 3-0

Nov 16

TOR129@

IND111

Nov 27

IND95@

TOR97

Jan 15

TOR115@

IND101today

Feb 8

IND104@

TOR122

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

IND -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

220.5

Standard · -5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR-10250%

IND-11854%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet IND -1.5↗SpreadBet IND -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

220.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat IND 115-101. S. Barnes paced them with 26 PTS, 7 REB, 13 AST. TOR outscored the other side 39-18 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 30 REB · 27 AST

GS 66

Bench(5)

37 PTS · 19 REB · 3 AST

GS 28

INDstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

63 PTS · 31 REB · 14 AST

GS 44

Bench(8)

38 PTS · 15 REB · 12 AST

GS 37

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR4th Quarter · 6:02 · 100-94

+8pp→ 85% WP

Johnny Furphy · misses free throw 2 of 2

TOR4th Quarter · 4:37 · 103-96

+10pp→ 87% WP

Jamal Shead · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)

TOR4th Quarter · 3:55 · 106-99

+9pp→ 89% WP

Brandon Ingram · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Gradey Dick assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	39	28	27	21	115
IND	18	30	30	23	101

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · IND won 3

Barnes 10

Nembhard 6

Dick 11

Siakam 14

Ingram 10

Siakam 38

Ingram 8

Nembhard 6

TOR

IND

Shooting comparison

TOR

IND

49%

44-89

38%

33-86

36%

10-28

3PT

29%

12-42

65%

17-26

74%

23-31

Play-by-play · 524 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·5.4
shot clock turnover
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·29.4
A.J. Lawson defensive rebound
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·29.8
Jarace Walker misses two point shot
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·42.3
Ethan Thompson defensive rebound
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·43.3
Jonathan Mogbo misses free throw 2 of 2
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·43.3
Raptors offensive team rebound
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·43.3
Jonathan Mogbo misses free throw 1 of 2
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·43.3
Micah Potter shooting foul
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·50.8
Alijah Martin enters the game for Collin Murray-Boyles
·
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·50.8
Ochai Agbaji enters the game for Scottie Barnes
·
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·50.8
Jonathan Mogbo enters the game for Brandon Ingram
·
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·50.8
A.J. Lawson enters the game for Gradey Dick
·
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·50.8
Raptors Full timeout
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·51.2
Jamal Shead defensive rebound
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·54.9
Micah Potter misses 23-foot running jump shot
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·59.5
Jamal Shead bad pass turnover (Ethan Thompson steals)
·
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·1:12
Ben Sheppard enters the game for Pascal Siakam
·
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·1:12
Micah Potter enters the game for Aaron Nesmith
·
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·1:12
Ethan Thompson enters the game for Tony Bradley
·
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·1:12
Kam Jones enters the game for Johnny Furphy
·
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·1:12
Jarace Walker enters the game for Andrew Nembhard
·
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·1:12
Pacers Full timeout
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·1:12
Andrew Nembhard personal foul
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·1:25
Collin Murray-Boyles defensive rebound
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·1:29
Johnny Furphy misses 25-foot three point jumper
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·1:40
Brandon Ingram makes 16-foot pullup jump shot
TOR 115·IND 101
Q4·2:01
Gradey Dick defensive rebound
TOR 113·IND 101
Q4·2:04
Pascal Siakam misses 26-foot three point jumper
TOR 113·IND 101

Betting line

IND -1.5·O/U 220.5·TOR -102/IND -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oronto Raptors went into Indiana Pacers and beat them, 115–101.

TOR +1.5 cashed (IND lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 220.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
Micah PotterIND · C
TS%67.996
Pascal SiakamIND · F
USG%30.096

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

IND

54.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.3%

48.1%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.8%

114.3

PPG

◀

114.9

112.4

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.7

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR