NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+25LAL

ATL

20-22

116141

LAL

24-14

NBATue, Jan 13FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasLAL -1.5

ATL · top performer

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

G · #7

20.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

LeBron James

F · #23

28.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 23pp · 1st Quarter · 1:30

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	33	7	3-8	0-3	1-2	-22	8	4
J. JohnsonF · #1	30	13	5-17	1-7	2-2	-23	3	6
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	33	26	10-16	5-9	1-1	-37	4	3
V. KrejciG · #27	21	11	4-11	1-7	2-2	-21	2	4
D. DanielsG · #5	33	8	4-6	—	—	-9	8	5
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	26	19	6-11	3-7	4-6	-10	0	1
M. GueyeF · #18	22	5	1-4	1-2	2-2	+4	4	1
A. NewellF · #14	10	0	0-1	0-1	—	-9	1	2
C. McCollumG · #3	27	25	11-23	2-8	1-3	+2	1	3
K. WallaceG · #2	4	2	1-3	0-2	—	0	1	1
Team		116	45-100	13-46	13-18		32	30
DNP: Z. Risacher, L. Kennard

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	33	31	12-20	2-4	5-6	+17	9	10
J. LaRaviaF · #12	36	17	6-10	3-4	2-2	+13	4	3
D. AytonC · #5	31	17	7-9	—	3-3	+31	18	1
M. SmartG · #36	29	16	4-5	2-3	6-6	+32	5	4
L. DoncicG · #77	33	27	7-16	5-9	8-10	+27	5	12
Bench
R. HachimuraF · #28	18	7	3-7	1-3	—	-1	2	0
J. VanderbiltF · #2	16	3	1-2	0-1	1-2	-6	1	1
D. TimmeF · #17	4	2	1-1	—	—	0	1	0
D. KnechtF · #4	15	2	1-3	0-2	—	+4	0	0
G. VincentG · #7	14	10	3-6	3-5	1-1	+8	1	1
N. Smith Jr.G · #20	4	6	2-2	2-2	—	0	0	2
K. BufkinG · #18	4	3	1-1	1-1	—	0	1	1
B. JamesG · #9	4	0	0-1	—	—	0	0	1
Team		141	48-83	19-34	26-30		47	36
DNP: M. Kleber

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

45-100

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-83

FG %

13-46

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

19-34

13-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

26-30

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 9

LAL102@

ATL122

Jan 14

ATL116@

LAL141today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL+10549%

LAL-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -1.5↗SpreadBet LAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat ATL 141-116. L. James paced them with 31 PTS, 9 REB, 10 AST. LAL outscored the other side 44-30 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 56% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 25 REB · 22 AST

GS 57

Bench(5)

51 PTS · 7 REB · 8 AST

GS 37

LALstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

108 PTS · 41 REB · 30 AST

GS 102

Bench(8)

33 PTS · 6 REB · 6 AST

GS 26

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAL1st Quarter · 1:30 · 24-32

+23pp→ 69% WP

CJ McCollum · misses free throw 1 of 2

LAL2nd Quarter · 7:19 · 44-51

+9pp→ 70% WP

Jake LaRavia · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)

LAL2nd Quarter · 6:55 · 44-52

+7pp→ 77% WP

Luka Doncic · makes free throw 1 of 3

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	30	30	26	30	116
LAL	37	44	21	39	141

Period scoring

ATL won 1 · LAL won 3

Alexander-Walker 12

McCollum 13

McCollum 11

Doncic 14

McCollum 7

James 7

Kispert 7

James 12

ATL

LAL

Shooting comparison

ATL

LAL

45%

45-100

58%

48-83

28%

13-46

3PT

56%

19-34

72%

13-18

87%

26-30

Play-by-play · 475 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 116·LAL 141
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 116·LAL 141
Q4·5.7
Keaton Wallace makes 8-foot pullup jump shot (Vit Krejci assists)
·
ATL 116·LAL 141
Q4·12.9
Vit Krejci offensive rebound
ATL 114·LAL 141
Q4·14.0
Keaton Wallace misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 114·LAL 141
Q4·21.9
Drew Timme makes driving layup (Nick Smith Jr. assists)
·
ATL 114·LAL 141
Q4·37.8
Corey Kispert makes running layup (Vit Krejci assists)
·
ATL 114·LAL 139
Q4·41.9
Nick Smith Jr. lost ball turnover (Vit Krejci steals)
·
ATL 112·LAL 139
Q4·51.3
Vit Krejci makes driving layup (Keaton Wallace assists)
·
ATL 112·LAL 139
Q4·1:02
Nick Smith Jr. makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kobe Bufkin assists)
·
ATL 110·LAL 139
Q4·1:18
Drew Timme defensive rebound
ATL 110·LAL 136
Q4·1:22
Vit Krejci misses 28-foot three point jumper
ATL 110·LAL 136
Q4·1:24
Keaton Wallace offensive rebound
ATL 110·LAL 136
Q4·1:28
Corey Kispert misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
ATL 110·LAL 136
Q4·1:42
Dalton Knecht makes 8-foot pullup jump shot (Nick Smith Jr. assists)
·
ATL 110·LAL 136
Q4·2:00
Corey Kispert makes 2-foot layup (Asa Newell assists)
·
ATL 110·LAL 134
Q4·2:13
Vit Krejci defensive rebound
ATL 108·LAL 134
Q4·2:13
Bronny James misses 15-foot fade away jump shot
·
ATL 108·LAL 134
Q4·2:34
Vit Krejci makes 26-foot three point jumper (Asa Newell assists)
·
ATL 108·LAL 134
Q4·2:36
Asa Newell offensive rebound
ATL 105·LAL 134
Q4·2:39
Keaton Wallace misses 27-foot three point jumper
ATL 105·LAL 134
Q4·2:53
Kobe Bufkin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bronny James assists)
· ·
ATL 105·LAL 134
Q4·2:59
Kobe Bufkin defensive rebound
ATL 105·LAL 131
Q4·3:02
Asa Newell misses 23-foot three point jumper
ATL 105·LAL 131
Q4·3:13
Nick Smith Jr. makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
ATL 105·LAL 131
Q4·3:30
Vit Krejci makes driving layup
ATL 105·LAL 128
Q4·3:43
Bronny James enters the game for LeBron James
·
ATL 103·LAL 128
Q4·3:43
LeBron James personal take foul
·
ATL 103·LAL 128
Q4·3:45
LeBron James makes free throw 2 of 2
·
ATL 103·LAL 128
Q4·3:45
Corey Kispert enters the game for Nickeil Alexander-Walker
·
ATL 103·LAL 127

Betting line

LAL -1.5·O/U 233.5·ATL +105/LAL -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers held off Atlanta Hawks, 141–116. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAL -1.5 cashed (won by 25). Total cleared the 233.5 OVER by 23.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

LAL

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

47.2%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

117.2

PPG

◀

114.9

114.8

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.7

13.4

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR