NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+21OKC

27-13

98119

OKC

34-7

NBATue, Jan 13FinalSeriesSA leads series 3-1VegasOKC -8.5

SA · top performer

Stephon Castle

G · #5

15.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

OKC · top performer

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G · #2

26.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ OKC

Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 5:01

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. BarnesF · #40	24	2	1-7	0-5	—	-1	0	1
J. ChampagnieF · #30	34	13	4-10	4-9	1-3	-10	6	1
V. WembanyamaF · #1	28	17	7-15	0-1	3-6	-14	7	1
D. FoxG · #4	34	14	5-9	2-5	2-2	-12	5	5
S. CastleG · #5	36	20	6-13	3-5	5-7	-14	7	8
Bench
K. OlynykF · #8	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
L. Waters IIIF · #43	13	3	1-5	1-4	—	-3	1	1
K. JohnsonF · #3	20	9	4-11	1-5	—	-16	3	0
J. SochanF · #10	2	0	—	—	—	-3	1	0
C. BryantF · #11	2	0	—	—	—	-3	1	0
L. KornetC · #7	20	8	3-7	—	2-2	-9	8	1
J. McLaughlinG · #0	2	0	0-1	—	—	-3	0	0
D. HarperG · #2	26	12	3-7	2-3	4-4	-17	3	3
Team		98	34-85	13-37	17-24		42	21
DNP: B. Biyombo

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. HolmgrenC · #7	25	8	1-4	0-2	6-6	-9	10	0
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	34	34	11-23	1-4	11-13	+29	5	5
A. WigginsG · #21	26	5	2-6	1-5	—	+15	5	4
Jal. WilliamsG · #8	30	20	9-15	—	2-2	+4	0	3
C. WallaceG · #22	23	6	2-3	2-3	—	+4	1	1
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	23	11	4-10	2-7	1-2	+30	10	5
A. CarusoG · #9	20	13	5-8	2-4	1-1	+27	2	4
K. WilliamsG · #34	14	3	1-1	1-1	—	+6	2	0
I. JoeG · #11	14	8	3-3	2-2	—	-5	2	0
A. MitchellG · #25	30	11	4-8	0-2	3-3	+4	6	4
Team		119	42-81	11-30	24-27		43	26
DNP: O. Dieng, C. Youngblood

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

OKC

Home

34-85

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-81

FG %

13-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-30

17-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

24-27

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

SA wins series 4-3

May 19

SA122@

OKC115

May 21

SA113@

OKC122

May 23

OKC123@

SA108

May 25

OKC82@

SA103

May 27

SA114@

OKC127

May 29

OKC91@

SA118

May 31

SA111@

OKC103

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA+25029%

OKC-31076%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -8.5↗SpreadBet OKC -8.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat SA 119-98. S. Gilgeous-Alexander paced them with 34 PTS, 5 REB, 5 AST. OKC outscored the other side 40-24 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

OKC vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 25 REB · 16 AST

GS 46

Bench(8)

32 PTS · 17 REB · 5 AST

GS 21

OKCstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 21 REB · 13 AST

GS 63

Bench(5)

46 PTS · 22 REB · 13 AST

GS 43

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA2nd Quarter · 5:01 · 43-43

+7pp→ 38% WP

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · misses free throw 1 of 1

OKC2nd Quarter · 56.5 · 51-53

+7pp→ 68% WP

Julian Champagnie · misses driving layup

SA3rd Quarter · 10:06 · 62-62

+7pp→ 38% WP

Stephon Castle · makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	26	26	24	22	98
OKC	32	23	40	24	119

Period scoring

SA won 1 · OKC won 3

Harper 7

Gilgeous-Alexander 13

Champagnie 9

Mitchell 5

Castle 10

Gilgeous-Alexander 15

Johnson 5

Caruso 14

OKC

Shooting comparison

OKC

40%

34-85

52%

42-81

35%

13-37

3PT

37%

11-30

71%

17-24

89%

24-27

Play-by-play · 486 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 98·OKC 119
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 98·OKC 119
Q4·14.3
Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound
SA 98·OKC 119
Q4·16.9
Aaron Wiggins misses 30-foot three point step back jumpshot
SA 98·OKC 119
Q4·36.9
Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
SA 98·OKC 119
Q4·38.5
Jordan McLaughlin misses two point shot
SA 98·OKC 119
Q4·53.0
Isaiah Joe makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)
· ·
SA 98·OKC 119
Q4·1:10
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
· ·
SA 98·OKC 116
Q4·1:13
Dylan Harper misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
SA 98·OKC 116
Q4·1:21
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
SA 98·OKC 116
Q4·1:24
Aaron Wiggins misses 22-foot three point jumper
SA 98·OKC 116
Q4·1:41
Carter Bryant enters the game for Kelly Olynyk
·
SA 98·OKC 116
Q4·1:41
Kelly Olynyk enters the game for Julian Champagnie
·
SA 98·OKC 116
Q4·1:41
Jeremy Sochan enters the game for Stephon Castle
·
SA 98·OKC 116
Q4·1:41
Jordan McLaughlin enters the game for De'Aaron Fox
·
SA 98·OKC 116
Q4·1:41
Lindy Waters III enters the game for Victor Wembanyama
·
SA 98·OKC 116
Q4·1:41
Ajay Mitchell enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
·
SA 98·OKC 116
Q4·1:41
Dylan Harper offensive foul turnover
SA 98·OKC 116
Q4·1:41
Dylan Harper offensive foul
SA 98·OKC 116
Q4·1:51
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 98·OKC 116
Q4·1:51
Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Alex Caruso
·
SA 98·OKC 115
Q4·1:51
Isaiah Joe enters the game for Jalen Williams
· ·
SA 98·OKC 115
Q4·1:51
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 98·OKC 115
Q4·1:51
De'Aaron Fox personal foul
SA 98·OKC 114
Q4·2:02
Julian Champagnie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)
·
SA 98·OKC 114
Q4·2:13
Alex Caruso makes 1-foot two point shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
·
SA 95·OKC 114
Q4·2:24
Stephon Castle out of bounds lost ball turnover
SA 95·OKC 112
Q4·2:29
Victor Wembanyama enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
SA 95·OKC 112
Q4·2:29
Spurs Full timeout
SA 95·OKC 112
Q4·2:32
Alex Caruso makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)
· ·
SA 95·OKC 112

Betting line

OKC -8.5·O/U 230.5·SA +250/OKC -310

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder held off San Antonio Spurs, 119–98. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

OKC -8.5 cashed (won by 21). Total stayed UNDER 230.5 by 13.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Cason WallaceOKC · G
DEFL599+
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

OKC vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

145

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Tobias HarrisSA
16.3± 7.8high
Stephon CastleSA
16.2± 5.2high

Rebounds

Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high

Assists

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
0.8± 0.8high
Isaiah HartensteinOKC
0.6± 0.8high

Steals

Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Alex CarusoOKC
1.5± 1.1high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
1.5± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

OKC

55.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

48.2%

118.2

PPG

114.9

118.5

27.3

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.8

12.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.9

Data via ESPN · hoopR