NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6DEN

DEN

27-13

122116

9-33

NBATue, Jan 13FinalSeriesDEN wins series 3-0VegasDEN -2.5

DEN · top performer

Jamal Murray

G · #27

32.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NO · top performer

Trey Murphy III

F · #25

20.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDEN ↔ NO

Biggest swing: 75pp · 3rd Quarter · 8:00

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. GordonF · #32	30	16	6-15	1-5	3-5	+8	7	1
S. JonesF · #21	23	2	1-5	0-2	0-2	-6	5	0
J. MurrayG · #27	37	35	11-19	5-8	8-9	+8	2	9
J. PickettG · #24	29	16	6-9	4-6	—	-2	0	3
P. WatsonG · #8	39	31	11-16	1-4	8-9	+15	7	5
Bench
H. TysonF · #5	3	0	0-2	0-2	—	-7	0	0
Z. NnajiF · #22	22	0	0-4	0-1	—	0	3	2
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	33	18	4-9	3-7	7-7	+12	4	2
B. BrownG · #11	24	4	2-5	—	—	+2	4	2
Team		122	41-84	14-35	26-32		32	24
DNP: D. Holmes II, J. Strawther

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	31	12	5-12	—	2-3	-4	7	4
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	34	31	11-18	4-8	5-5	-8	5	2
D. QueenC · #22	29	10	5-10	—	—	0	13	5
S. BeyG · #41	32	17	4-8	1-4	8-10	-1	4	2
J. FearsG · #0	26	10	3-9	0-4	4-4	-3	3	3
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	15	4	2-3	—	—	-2	5	1
Y. MissiC · #21	19	8	2-7	—	4-5	-6	7	0
J. PooleG · #3	20	16	4-9	4-7	4-4	-1	1	2
M. PeavyG · #14	12	2	1-5	0-2	—	-9	1	0
J. HawkinsG · #24	22	6	2-5	2-4	—	+4	5	2
Team		116	39-86	11-29	27-31		51	21
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, T. Alexander

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DEN

Away

Stat

Home

41-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-86

FG %

14-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-29

26-32

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

27-31

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DEN wins series 3-0

Oct 30

NO88@

DEN122

Nov 20

DEN125@

NO118

Jan 14

DEN122@

NO116today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DEN -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DEN-13557%

NO+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DEN -2.5↗SpreadBet DEN -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DEN beat NO 122-116. J. Murray led the way with 35 points and 9 assists. DEN outscored the other side 33-24 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NO vs DEN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DENstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

100 PTS · 21 REB · 18 AST

GS 85

Bench(4)

22 PTS · 11 REB · 6 AST

GS 15

NOstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 32 REB · 16 AST

GS 60

Bench(5)

36 PTS · 19 REB · 5 AST

GS 32

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DEN3rd Quarter · 3:40 · 81-84

+16pp→ 40% WP

Jeremiah Fears · lost ball turnover (Jamal Murray steals)

DEN4th Quarter · 3:08 · 112-110

+16pp→ 60% WP

Jalen Pickett · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)

NO3rd Quarter · 8:00 · 69-77

+75pp→ 75% WP

Zeke Nnaji · enters the game for Spencer Jones

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DEN	32	28	29	33	122
NO	31	34	27	24	116

Period scoring

DEN won 3 · NO won 1

Murray 11

III 12

Watson 15

III 10

Murray 12

Fears 11

Murray 12

Missi 25

DEN

Shooting comparison

DEN

49%

41-84

45%

39-86

40%

14-35

3PT

38%

11-29

81%

26-32

87%

27-31

Play-by-play · 486 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DEN 122·NO 116
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DEN 122·NO 116
Q4·2.4
Peyton Watson makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 122·NO 116
Q4·2.4
Peyton Watson makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 121·NO 116
Q4·2.4
Saddiq Bey personal take foul
DEN 120·NO 116
−0.9pp
Q4·3.1
Trey Murphy III makes driving layup
DEN 120·NO 116
Q4·8.6
Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 120·NO 114
+0.7pp
Q4·8.6
Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 119·NO 114
Q4·8.6
Zion Williamson personal take foulBIG MOMENT
DEN 118·NO 114
−9pp
Q4·9.4
Jamal Murray enters the game for Zeke Nnaji
·
DEN 118·NO 114
Q4·9.4
Zion Williamson enters the game for Derik QueenBIG MOMENT
·
DEN 118·NO 114
+6pp
Q4·9.4
Derik Queen out of bounds bad pass turnover
DEN 118·NO 114
Q4·9.4
Nuggets Coach's Challenge
DEN 118·NO 114
Q4·9.4
(00:09.4) [Nuggets] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Nuggets] retain their timeoutBIG MOMENT
DEN 118·NO 114
−6pp
Q4·10.8
Zeke Nnaji enters the game for Jalen Pickett
·
DEN 118·NO 114
Q4·10.8
Bruce Brown enters the game for Jamal Murray
·
DEN 118·NO 114
Q4·10.8
Derik Queen enters the game for Jordan Hawkins
· ·
DEN 118·NO 114
Q4·10.8
Jordan Poole enters the game for Zion Williamson
· ·
DEN 118·NO 114
Q4·10.8
Pelicans Full timeout
DEN 118·NO 114
Q4·10.8
Aaron Gordon makes dunk (Jamal Murray assists)
·
DEN 118·NO 114
+1pp
Q4·18.4
Trey Murphy III personal take foulBIG MOMENT
DEN 116·NO 114
−14pp
Q4·23.1
Jalen Pickett enters the game for Zeke Nnaji
·
DEN 116·NO 114
Q4·23.1
Yves Missi enters the game for Derik Queen
·
DEN 116·NO 114
Q4·23.1
Nuggets Full timeout
DEN 116·NO 114
Q4·23.1
Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
DEN 116·NO 114
−4pp
Q4·23.1
Zion Williamson misses tip shotBIG MOMENT
DEN 116·NO 114
−11pp
Q4·23.1
Zion Williamson offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
DEN 116·NO 114
+10pp
Q4·26.1
Trey Murphy III misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
DEN 116·NO 114
−13pp
Q4·39.4
Peyton Watson makes 14-foot two point shot (Jamal Murray assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DEN 116·NO 114
−12pp
Q4·1:02
Trey Murphy III makes driving layup (Derik Queen assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DEN 114·NO 114
+10pp

Betting line

DEN -2.5·O/U 234.5·DEN -135/NO +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

enver Nuggets went into New Orleans Pelicans and beat them, 122–116.

DEN -2.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 234.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796
Trey Murphy IIINO · F
DEFL2.891
Yves MissiNO · C
CONT6.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DEN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NO vs DEN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Jamal MurrayDEN
24.2± 8.1high
Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
Kevon LooneyNO
6.6± 3.6high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high
Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.0± 1.0high
Derik QueenNO
1.0± 0.9high

Steals

Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high
Trey Murphy IIINO
1.4± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DEN

league avg

57.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

49.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.6%

121.1

PPG

◀

114.9

115.5

28.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

12.1

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR