NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13PHI

PHI

22-16

115102

TOR

24-17

NBAMon, Jan 12FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasPHI -3.5

PHI · top performer

Tyrese Maxey

G · #0

28.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Collin Murray-Boyles

F · #12

15.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHI ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 9pp · 1st Quarter · 5.9

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. GeorgeF · #8	29	15	5-13	1-6	4-5	+4	4	6
D. BarlowF · #25	25	4	2-3	—	—	+6	6	0
J. EmbiidC · #21	36	27	9-17	1-6	8-8	+12	8	4
T. MaxeyG · #0	35	33	10-16	6-9	7-7	+13	4	2
V. EdgecombeG · #77	33	15	5-7	5-6	—	+8	2	8
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	1	0	—	—	—	-2	1	0
J. WalkerF · #33	14	6	2-3	1-2	1-2	+13	1	0
J. EdwardsF · #11	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
A. BonaC · #30	12	0	0-1	—	—	+1	2	0
K. LowryG · #7	2	0	0-3	0-3	—	-4	0	0
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	30	7	3-7	1-2	—	+12	4	0
Q. GrimesG · #5	16	6	2-3	1-2	1-1	+4	4	2
J. McCainG · #20	6	2	1-1	—	—	0	0	0
Team		115	39-74	16-36	21-23		36	22
DNP: A. Drummond, E. Gordon

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	34	17	5-15	0-2	7-7	-7	10	7
S. BarnesF · #4	35	15	5-16	0-3	5-5	-13	4	3
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	32	12	6-9	—	—	-3	7	6
I. QuickleyG · #5	32	18	8-18	2-10	—	-13	6	0
J. SheadG · #23	30	3	1-5	0-4	1-1	-5	1	6
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	21	8	3-7	0-2	2-5	-9	2	2
J. BattleF · #77	8	3	1-2	1-2	—	-10	2	0
J. MogboF · #2	2	2	1-1	—	—	+4	1	0
G. TempleG · #17	2	0	—	—	—	+4	0	0
A.J. LawsonG · #0	17	14	5-9	3-6	1-1	+1	1	1
O. AgbajiG · #30	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	+4	1	0
A. MartinG · #55	13	6	1-3	0-2	4-4	-8	2	2
G. DickG · #1	12	4	1-6	0-5	2-2	-10	1	2
Team		102	37-92	6-37	22-25		38	29

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

39-74

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-92

FG %

16-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

6-37

21-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Nov 9

TOR120@

PHI130

Nov 20

TOR121@

PHI112

Jan 11

PHI115@

TOR116

Jan 13

PHI115@

TOR102today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

221.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI-16262%

TOR+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -3.5↗SpreadBet PHI -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

221.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat TOR 115-102. T. Maxey paced them with 33 PTS, 4 REB, 2 AST. PHI outscored the other side 45-28 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs PHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHIstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

94 PTS · 24 REB · 20 AST

GS 77

Bench(8)

21 PTS · 12 REB · 2 AST

GS 9

TORstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 28 REB · 22 AST

GS 54

Bench(8)

37 PTS · 10 REB · 7 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI1st Quarter · 4:21 · 24-19

+6pp→ 63% WP

Brandon Ingram · misses 26-foot three point jumper

PHI1st Quarter · 5.9 · 44-28

+9pp→ 89% WP

Joel Embiid · makes free throw 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHI	45	35	19	16	115
TOR	28	23	26	25	102

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · TOR won 2

Maxey 18

Ingram 8

Edgecombe 9

Ingram 7

Maxey 5

Barnes 6

Embiid 8

Barnes 5

PHI

TOR

Shooting comparison

PHI

TOR

53%

39-74

40%

37-92

44%

16-36

3PT

16%

6-37

91%

21-23

88%

22-25

Play-by-play · 469 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHI 115·TOR 102
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHI 115·TOR 102
Q4·5.3
Trendon Watford defensive rebound
PHI 115·TOR 102
Q4·8.1
Ochai Agbaji misses 25-foot three point jumper
PHI 115·TOR 102
Q4·12.4
Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound
PHI 115·TOR 102
Q4·16.0
Kyle Lowry misses 29-foot three point jumper
PHI 115·TOR 102
Q4·25.1
Adem Bona defensive rebound
PHI 115·TOR 102
Q4·29.1
Trendon Watford blocks Alijah Martin 's 28-foot three point step back jumpshot
·
PHI 115·TOR 102
Q4·42.7
Ochai Agbaji defensive rebound
PHI 115·TOR 102
Q4·42.7
Adem Bona misses two point shot
PHI 115·TOR 102
Q4·43.8
Adem Bona offensive rebound
PHI 115·TOR 102
Q4·46.9
Kyle Lowry misses 28-foot three point jumper
PHI 115·TOR 102
Q4·59.5
Alijah Martin makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 115·TOR 102
Q4·59.5
Alijah Martin makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 115·TOR 101
Q4·59.5
Justin Edwards personal foul
PHI 115·TOR 100
Q4·1:13
Jamison Battle defensive rebound
PHI 115·TOR 100
Q4·1:15
Kyle Lowry misses 27-foot three point jumper
PHI 115·TOR 100
Q4·1:27
Trendon Watford enters the game for Paul George
·
PHI 115·TOR 100
Q4·1:27
Jared McCain enters the game for Dominick Barlow
·
PHI 115·TOR 100
Q4·1:27
Justin Edwards enters the game for Kelly Oubre Jr.
·
PHI 115·TOR 100
Q4·1:27
76ers Full timeout
PHI 115·TOR 100
Q4·1:35
Jonathan Mogbo makes layup (Alijah Martin assists)
·
PHI 115·TOR 100
Q4·1:57
Paul George makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 115·TOR 98
Q4·1:57
Kyle Lowry enters the game for Tyrese Maxey
·
PHI 114·TOR 98
Q4·1:57
Adem Bona enters the game for Joel Embiid
·
PHI 114·TOR 98
Q4·1:57
Jonathan Mogbo enters the game for Jamal Shead
·
PHI 114·TOR 98
Q4·1:57
Garrett Temple enters the game for Collin Murray-Boyles
·
PHI 114·TOR 98
Q4·1:57
Ochai Agbaji enters the game for Immanuel Quickley
·
PHI 114·TOR 98
Q4·1:57
Alijah Martin enters the game for Scottie Barnes
·
PHI 114·TOR 98
Q4·1:57
Jamison Battle enters the game for Brandon Ingram
·
PHI 114·TOR 98

Betting line

PHI -3.5·O/U 221.5·PHI -162/TOR +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hiladelphia 76ers went into Toronto Raptors and beat them, 115–102.

PHI -3.5 cashed (won by 13). Total stayed UNDER 221.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Joel EmbiidPHI · C
USG%34.399
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Collin Murray-BoylesTOR · F
DEFL3.195
Immanuel QuickleyTOR · G
TOUCHES7294

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHI

league avg

TOR

52.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.5%

46.0%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.1%

114.3

PPG

114.9

114.3

24.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.2

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR