NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13ATL

ATL

20-21

124111

21-19

NBASun, Jan 11FinalSeriesATL leads series 1-0VegasGS -7.5

ATL · top performer

Jalen Johnson

F · #1

24.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Jimmy Butler III

F · #10

27.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 38pp · 2nd Quarter · 7:51

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	33	18	6-14	3-6	3-4	+8	12	8
J. JohnsonF · #1	33	23	9-16	1-4	4-6	+11	11	6
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	34	24	9-18	3-7	3-3	+9	2	2
V. KrejciG · #27	21	5	1-4	1-4	2-4	-3	5	0
D. DanielsG · #5	31	11	5-8	—	1-2	+8	7	9
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	14	2	0-4	0-3	2-2	+2	2	3
M. GueyeF · #18	24	5	2-3	1-1	—	+8	5	0
A. NewellF · #14	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	+2	1	0
C. McCollumG · #3	24	12	5-14	0-4	2-4	+19	0	4
L. KennardG · #4	20	22	8-11	6-9	—	+6	1	1
K. WallaceG · #2	2	2	1-1	—	—	-5	0	0
Team		124	46-94	15-39	17-25		46	33
DNP: Z. Risacher

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. Butler IIIF · #10	34	30	10-19	2-6	8-8	-5	7	6
D. GreenF · #23	29	5	2-4	0-2	1-2	-7	9	4
Q. PostC · #21	18	8	3-6	2-5	—	0	3	0
S. CurryG · #30	33	31	11-21	3-11	6-6	-9	3	5
M. MoodyG · #4	17	2	0-3	0-3	2-3	-6	1	1
Bench
T. Jackson-DavisF · #32	3	6	3-3	—	0-1	+4	2	0
G. SantosF · #15	16	5	2-3	1-2	—	-11	2	3
A. HorfordC · #20	16	5	2-6	1-4	—	-10	8	2
B. HieldG · #7	7	0	0-1	0-1	—	-7	1	1
G. Payton IIG · #0	16	6	3-6	—	—	-6	5	0
D. MeltonG · #8	23	10	5-12	0-5	0-1	+18	5	3
B. PodziemskiG · #2	16	3	1-4	1-2	—	-21	1	1
W. RichardG · #3	12	0	0-2	0-1	—	-5	1	2
Team		111	42-90	10-42	17-21		48	28
DNP: J. Kuminga

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

Home

46-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-90

FG %

15-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-42

17-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL leads series 1-0

Jan 12

ATL124@

GS111today

Mar 22

GS110@

ATL126

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

237.5

High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL+22531%

GS-27874%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -7.5↗SpreadBet GS -7.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

237.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat GS 124-111. J. Johnson led with 23 PTS, 11 REB, 6 AST. ATL outscored the other side 35-25 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 37 REB · 25 AST

GS 78

Bench(6)

43 PTS · 9 REB · 8 AST

GS 33

GSstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 23 REB · 16 AST

GS 60

Bench(8)

35 PTS · 25 REB · 12 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

GS2nd Quarter · 7:51 · 34-39

+38pp→ 74% WP

Asa Newell · enters the game for Onyeka Okongwu

ATL3rd Quarter · 4:31 · 78-71

+8pp→ 72% WP

Luke Kennard · makes 22-foot running jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)

ATL3rd Quarter · 2:43 · 81-73

+12pp→ 78% WP

Luke Kennard · makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	27	32	35	30	124
GS	28	25	25	33	111

Period scoring

ATL won 2 · GS won 2

Johnson 10

Curry 9

Alexander-Walker 10

III 12

Kennard 12

Post 17

Okongwu 13

Kennard 21

ATL

Shooting comparison

ATL

49%

46-94

47%

42-90

38%

15-39

3PT

24%

10-42

68%

17-25

81%

17-21

Play-by-play · 502 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 124·GS 111
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 124·GS 111
Q4·3.1
shot clock turnover
ATL 124·GS 111
Q4·27.1
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes 3-foot two point shot (Will Richard assists)
·
ATL 124·GS 111
Q4·50.4
Keaton Wallace makes 12-foot step back jumpshot
ATL 124·GS 109
Q4·1:00
Vit Krejci offensive rebound
ATL 122·GS 109
Q4·1:05
Luke Kennard misses 26-foot three point jumper
ATL 122·GS 109
Q4·1:18
Gui Santos makes 26-foot three point jumper (Will Richard assists)
·
ATL 122·GS 109
Q4·1:35
Vit Krejci out of bounds bad pass turnover
ATL 122·GS 106
Q4·1:46
Corey Kispert defensive rebound
ATL 122·GS 106
Q4·1:50
Luke Kennard enters the game for Onyeka Okongwu
·
ATL 122·GS 106
Q4·1:50
Trayce Jackson-Davis misses free throw 1 of 1
ATL 122·GS 106
Q4·1:50
Onyeka Okongwu shooting foul
ATL 122·GS 106
Q4·1:50
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes 1-foot layup (Gui Santos assists)
·
ATL 122·GS 106
Q4·2:07
Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound
ATL 122·GS 104
Q4·2:09
Onyeka Okongwu misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 122·GS 104
Q4·2:09
Mouhamed Gueye enters the game for CJ McCollum
·
ATL 122·GS 104
Q4·2:09
Keaton Wallace enters the game for Jalen Johnson
·
ATL 122·GS 104
Q4·2:09
Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 122·GS 104
Q4·2:09
Will Richard personal foul
ATL 121·GS 104
Q4·2:09
Will Richard lost ball turnover (Onyeka Okongwu steals)
·
ATL 121·GS 104
Q4·2:19
Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 121·GS 104
Q4·2:19
Corey Kispert enters the game for Nickeil Alexander-Walker
·
ATL 120·GS 104
Q4·2:19
Vit Krejci enters the game for Dyson Daniels
·
ATL 120·GS 104
Q4·2:19
Jalen Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 120·GS 104
Q4·2:19
Gui Santos shooting foul
ATL 119·GS 104
Q4·2:36
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes dunk
ATL 119·GS 104
Q4·2:36
Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound
ATL 119·GS 102
Q4·2:40
Quinten Post misses 25-foot three point jumper
ATL 119·GS 102
Q4·2:58
Buddy Hield defensive rebound
ATL 119·GS 102

Betting line

GS -7.5·O/U 237.5·ATL +225/GS -278

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks went into Golden State Warriors and beat them, 124–111.

ATL +7.5 cashed (GS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 237.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Stephen CurryGS · G
USG%31.597
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397
Draymond GreenGS · F
CONT7.593

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

47.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.2%

117.2

PPG

◀

114.9

114.5

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

28.8

13.4

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR