NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+19PHX

WSH

10-28

93112

PHX

24-15

NBASun, Jan 11FinalSeriesPHX wins series 2-0VegasPHX -15.5

WSH · top performer

Alex Sarr

C · #20

17.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Royce O'Neale

F · #00

17.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowWSH ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 16pp · 1st Quarter · 1:56

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. MiddletonF · #22	18	2	1-8	0-4	—	-5	2	5
K. GeorgeF · #18	26	5	2-10	1-5	—	-1	2	4
A. SarrC · #20	28	19	7-15	0-2	5-5	-10	15	1
B. CoulibalyG · #0	28	12	4-10	2-5	2-2	-13	4	1
T. JohnsonG · #12	30	19	8-15	3-8	—	-16	5	3
Bench
A. GillF · #16	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	16	6	3-4	—	—	-16	3	0
J. ChampagnieF · #9	21	8	3-6	—	2-2	-18	6	0
T. VukcevicF · #00	4	4	1-3	0-1	2-2	+7	1	0
M. BranhamG · #8	4	0	—	—	—	+7	0	0
B. CarringtonG · #7	32	9	3-5	1-3	2-2	-17	4	7
W. RileyG · #27	19	9	2-4	0-1	5-5	-15	4	1
AJ JohnsonG · #4	10	0	0-6	0-1	—	0	3	0
Team		93	34-86	7-30	18-18		49	22

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	25	19	6-11	5-10	2-2	+18	7	4
D. BrooksF · #3	24	16	5-14	4-8	2-2	+10	1	1
M. WilliamsC · #15	22	11	5-6	—	1-1	+10	7	2
D. BookerG · #1	26	17	5-14	1-4	6-6	+16	3	8
C. GillespieG · #12	29	2	0-6	0-6	2-3	+14	6	5
Bench
N. Hayes-DavisF · #21	3	2	1-1	—	—	-5	1	0
I. LiversF · #18	7	7	3-3	1-1	—	-2	2	0
O. IghodaroF · #11	20	10	4-5	—	2-4	+11	3	2
R. DunnF · #0	19	9	4-8	1-3	—	+8	6	3
R. FlemingF · #20	13	4	2-7	0-4	—	+1	1	1
K. MaluachC · #10	5	0	0-1	—	—	-5	1	0
G. AllenG · #8	24	12	4-10	4-9	—	+17	7	2
J. GoodwinG · #23	22	3	1-9	1-7	0-1	+2	6	4
Team		112	40-95	17-52	15-19		51	32
DNP: N. Richards

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

34-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-95

FG %

7-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-52

18-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHX wins series 2-0

Dec 30

PHX115@

WSH101

Jan 12

WSH93@

PHX112today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -15.5

Between 10 and —

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+60014%

PHX-90090%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -15.5↗SpreadBet PHX -15.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

15.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHX beat WSH 112-93. R. O'Neale led with 19 PTS, 7 REB, 4 AST. PHX outscored the other side 31-17 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs WSH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

WSHstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 28 REB · 14 AST

GS 35

Bench(8)

36 PTS · 21 REB · 8 AST

GS 31

PHXstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 24 REB · 20 AST

GS 59

Bench(8)

47 PTS · 27 REB · 12 AST

GS 39

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

WSH1st Quarter · 1:56 · 24-24

+16pp→ 20% WP

Ryan Dunn · misses tip shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
WSH	28	22	17	26	93
PHX	32	33	31	16	112

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · PHX won 3

Sarr 9

Booker 8

Johnson 6

Williams 36

Coulibaly 6

Allen 31

Riley 7

de 16

WSH

PHX

Shooting comparison

WSH

PHX

40%

34-86

42%

40-95

23%

7-30

3PT

33%

17-52

100%

18-18

79%

15-19

Play-by-play · 479 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 93·PHX 112
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 93·PHX 112
Q4·19.4
shot clock turnover
WSH 93·PHX 112
Q4·34.5
Tristan Vukcevic makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 93·PHX 112
Q4·34.5
Tristan Vukcevic makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 92·PHX 112
Q4·34.5
Jordan Goodwin personal foul
WSH 91·PHX 112
Q4·44.5
Isaiah Livers makes 14-foot step back jumpshot
WSH 91·PHX 112
Q4·1:01
Tristan Vukcevic makes 2-foot running dunk
WSH 91·PHX 110
Q4·1:03
Jordan Goodwin bad pass turnover (Tristan Vukcevic steals)
·
WSH 89·PHX 110
Q4·1:08
Anthony Gill enters the game for Bub Carrington
·
WSH 89·PHX 110
Q4·1:08
Suns offensive team rebound
WSH 89·PHX 110
Q4·1:08
Jordan Goodwin misses technical free throw
WSH 89·PHX 110
Q4·1:08
Bub Carrington flopping technical foul
WSH 89·PHX 110
Q4·1:08
Will Riley makes free throw 1 of 1
WSH 89·PHX 110
Q4·1:08
Rasheer Fleming shooting foul
WSH 88·PHX 110
Q4·1:08
Will Riley makes layup
WSH 88·PHX 110
Q4·1:18
Nigel Hayes-Davis makes two point shot
WSH 86·PHX 110
Q4·1:18
Nigel Hayes-Davis offensive rebound
WSH 86·PHX 108
Q4·1:22
Rasheer Fleming misses 17-foot two point shot
WSH 86·PHX 108
Q4·1:36
Khaman Maluach defensive rebound
WSH 86·PHX 108
Q4·1:38
Will Riley misses 9-foot pullup jump shot
WSH 86·PHX 108
Q4·1:39
Will Riley offensive rebound
WSH 86·PHX 108
Q4·1:43
Tristan Vukcevic misses 26-foot three point jumper
WSH 86·PHX 108
Q4·1:57
Wizards defensive team rebound
WSH 86·PHX 108
Q4·2:01
Jordan Goodwin misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
WSH 86·PHX 108
Q4·2:24
Will Riley makes 2-foot running dunk (Bub Carrington assists)
·
WSH 86·PHX 108
Q4·2:28
Jordan Goodwin lost ball turnover (Malaki Branham steals)
·
WSH 84·PHX 108
Q4·2:50
AJ Johnson traveling turnover
·
WSH 84·PHX 108
Q4·2:59
Tristan Vukcevic defensive rebound
WSH 84·PHX 108
Q4·3:02
Khaman Maluach misses 3-foot two point shot
WSH 84·PHX 108

Betting line

PHX -15.5·O/U 230.5·WSH +600/PHX -900

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hoenix Suns held off Washington Wizards, 112–93.

PHX -15.5 cashed (won by 19). Total stayed UNDER 230.5 by 25.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Alex SarrWSH · C
CONT9.498
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
Anthony GillWSH · F
TS%68.297
Mark WilliamsPHX · C
CONT8.496
Bilal CoulibalyWSH · G
DEFL3.194

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high
Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low
Alex SarrWSH
6.8± 2.8high

Assists

Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Bub CarringtonWSH
5.1± 1.9high
Sharife CooperWSH
3.8± 2.0high

Blocks

Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high
Bilal CoulibalyWSH
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Julian ReeseWSH
1.4± 1.7low
Leaky BlackWSH
1.4± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

WSH

league avg

PHX

53.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

53.7%

46.3%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.5%

112.9

PPG

114.9

112.2

25.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.5

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR