NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MIN

27-12

103104

MIN

26-14

NBASun, Jan 11FinalSeriesMIN leads series 2-0VegasMIN -2.5

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

22.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Donte DiVincenzo

G · #0

19.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 24pp · 4th Quarter · 6.6

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. BarnesF · #40	32	13	5-11	3-6	—	+7	1	4
J. ChampagnieF · #30	36	14	4-9	3-7	3-3	-1	10	1
V. WembanyamaF · #1	27	29	8-18	3-9	10-10	+17	7	1
D. FoxG · #4	34	12	6-19	0-6	—	+7	8	4
S. CastleG · #5	35	11	2-11	0-1	7-10	+1	6	5
Bench
K. OlynykF · #8	4	0	—	—	—	0	1	0
L. Waters IIIF · #43	12	3	1-3	1-3	—	+5	1	3
K. JohnsonF · #3	26	15	5-8	3-4	2-2	-4	2	0
L. KornetC · #7	23	6	3-4	—	—	-21	12	0
D. HarperG · #2	11	0	0-5	0-2	—	-16	1	1
Team		103	34-88	13-38	22-25		49	19
DNP: J. Sochan, C. Bryant, B. Biyombo, J. McLaughlin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	35	15	4-11	0-3	7-12	-10	8	4
J. McDanielsF · #3	36	12	5-9	0-3	2-2	-3	5	1
R. GobertC · #27	29	2	1-4	—	0-2	-14	14	3
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	38	19	7-16	5-12	—	+3	9	7
A. EdwardsG · #5	38	23	10-21	1-5	2-5	-4	2	3
Bench
N. ReidC · #11	31	17	7-18	3-7	—	+23	11	2
M. ConleyG · #10	12	4	1-1	1-1	1-2	-6	0	2
J. ClarkG · #22	9	2	1-2	0-1	—	0	0	1
B. HylandG · #8	12	10	3-8	2-7	2-2	+16	1	0
Team		104	39-90	12-39	14-25		50	23
DNP: J. Ingles, L. Miller, J. Beringer, J. Juzang, R. Dillingham

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

34-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-90

FG %

13-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-39

22-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-25

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

SA wins series 4-2

May 5

MIN104@

SA102

May 7

MIN95@

SA133

May 9

SA115@

MIN108

May 10

SA109@

MIN114

May 13

MIN97@

SA126

May 16

SA139@

MIN109

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA+12045%

MIN-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -2.5↗SpreadBet MIN -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat SA 104-103. D. DiVincenzo led with 19 PTS, 9 REB, 7 AST. MIN outscored the other side 33-18 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 32 REB · 15 AST

GS 50

Bench(5)

24 PTS · 17 REB · 4 AST

GS 20

MINstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 38 REB · 18 AST

GS 63

Bench(4)

33 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST

GS 22

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA2nd Quarter · 3:00 · 46-38

+23pp→ 75% WP

Rudy Gobert · misses free throw 2 of 2

SA4th Quarter · 1:28 · 101-100

+18pp→ 54% WP

Harrison Barnes · makes 23-foot running jump shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)

MIN4th Quarter · 6.6 · 103-104

+24pp→ 78% WP

Victor Wembanyama · misses 16-foot pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	31	24	30	18	103
MIN	24	18	29	33	104

Period scoring

SA won 3 · MIN won 1

Fox 6

McDaniels 8

Wembanyama 11

Edwards 8

Wembanyama 8

Reid 11

Fox 6

Edwards 9

MIN

Shooting comparison

MIN

39%

34-88

43%

39-90

34%

13-38

3PT

31%

12-39

88%

22-25

56%

14-25

Play-by-play · 505 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 103·MIN 104
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 103·MIN 104
+4pp
Q4·0.9
Spurs offensive team rebound
SA 103·MIN 104
+2pp
Q4·1.9
De'Aaron Fox misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
SA 103·MIN 104
+8pp
Q4·3.1
Julian Champagnie offensive rebound
SA 103·MIN 104
+3pp
Q4·5.1
Luke Kornet misses tip shotBIG MOMENT
SA 103·MIN 104
+7pp
Q4·5.1
Luke Kornet offensive rebound
SA 103·MIN 104
−2pp
Q4·6.6
Victor Wembanyama misses 16-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SA 103·MIN 104
+24pp
Q4·16.8
Rudy Gobert enters the game for Naz Reid
·
SA 103·MIN 104
Q4·16.8
Spurs Full timeout
SA 103·MIN 104
Q4·16.8
Anthony Edwards makes 3-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
SA 103·MIN 104
+8pp
Q4·33.7
Luke Kornet enters the game for Harrison Barnes
·
SA 103·MIN 102
Q4·33.7
Timberwolves Full timeout
SA 103·MIN 102
Q4·33.7
De'Aaron Fox makes 11-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SA 103·MIN 102
−9pp
Q4·48.7
Jaden McDaniels makes 10-foot fade away jump shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SA 101·MIN 102
+9pp
Q4·54.9
Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound
SA 101·MIN 100
+3pp
Q4·57.8
Harrison Barnes misses 27-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
SA 101·MIN 100
+8pp
Q4·1:09
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
SA 101·MIN 100
−3pp
Q4·1:12
Julius Randle misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
SA 101·MIN 100
−8pp
Q4·1:28
Harrison Barnes makes 23-foot running jump shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SA 101·MIN 100
−18pp
Q4·1:31
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
SA 98·MIN 100
−3pp
Q4·1:35
Anthony Edwards misses 15-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
SA 98·MIN 100
−7pp
Q4·1:49
Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound
SA 98·MIN 100
+3pp
Q4·1:51
Victor Wembanyama misses 17-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
SA 98·MIN 100
+8pp
Q4·2:19
Anthony Edwards makes 11-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
SA 98·MIN 100
+8pp
Q4·2:36
Julius Randle defensive rebound
SA 98·MIN 98
+2pp
Q4·2:38
Jaden McDaniels blocks Harrison Barnes 's 1-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
SA 98·MIN 98
+7pp
Q4·3:00
Julius Randle makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
SA 98·MIN 98
+7pp
Q4·3:02
Julius Randle offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
SA 98·MIN 96
+6pp
Q4·3:03
Jaden McDaniels misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SA 98·MIN 96
−6pp

Betting line

MIN -2.5·O/U 233.5·SA +120/MIN -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

innesota Timberwolves held off San Antonio Spurs, 104–103. It came down to the final possession.

SA +2.5 cashed (MIN won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 233.5 by 26.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Anthony EdwardsMIN · G
USG%31.397
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.594

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
LaMelo BallMIN
22.2± 8.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
16.3± 7.8high

Rebounds

Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high
Julian ChampagnieSA
5.6± 2.5high

Assists

LaMelo BallMIN
7.3± 2.5high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high
Jaden McDanielsMIN
0.9± 0.4high

Steals

De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
1.3± 1.0high
Donte DiVincenzoMIN
1.2± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

MIN

55.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

47.6%

118.2

PPG

◀

114.9

116.8

27.3

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.7

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR