NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TOR

PHI

21-16

115116

TOR

24-16

NBASun, Jan 11FinalSeriesTOR leads series 2-1VegasPHI -1.5

PHI · top performer

Tyrese Maxey

G · #0

24.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Scottie Barnes

F · #4

24.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHI ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 42pp · OT · 0.8

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BarlowF · #25	26	13	5-6	1-2	2-2	+2	6	0
A. DrummondC · #1	20	0	0-2	0-1	—	-16	5	0
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	34	13	5-10	1-3	2-2	-8	5	0
T. MaxeyG · #0	45	38	13-27	2-7	10-12	+17	4	5
V. EdgecombeG · #77	45	17	6-19	2-8	3-4	-12	4	4
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	2	0	—	—	—	-5	1	0
J. WalkerF · #33	17	7	3-8	0-4	1-2	+9	6	0
A. BonaC · #30	33	9	3-4	—	3-4	+12	5	0
Q. GrimesG · #5	35	13	4-9	1-4	4-5	+4	7	1
J. McCainG · #20	9	5	2-5	1-2	—	-8	1	1
Team		115	41-90	8-31	25-31		44	11
DNP: P. George, J. Edwards, K. Lowry, E. Gordon

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. BarnesF · #4	43	31	10-19	1-4	10-12	+15	7	8
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	42	17	7-12	—	3-3	+5	15	3
I. QuickleyG · #5	40	20	6-22	2-8	6-9	+13	5	7
J. SheadG · #23	37	22	7-15	2-7	6-8	-13	1	6
J. WalterG · #14	5	2	1-3	0-2	—	+3	0	1
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	18	0	0-3	0-2	—	-17	1	2
J. BattleF · #77	15	5	2-6	0-2	1-3	+9	2	0
A.J. LawsonG · #0	10	2	1-4	0-2	—	+4	2	0
O. AgbajiG · #30	15	6	3-4	0-1	—	-2	6	1
A. MartinG · #55	30	9	3-11	0-3	3-4	-8	8	1
G. DickG · #1	11	2	1-4	0-1	—	-4	1	0
Team		116	41-103	5-32	29-39		48	29
DNP: J. Mogbo, G. Temple

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

41-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-103

FG %

8-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-32

25-31

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

29-39

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR leads series 2-1

Nov 9

TOR120@

PHI130

Nov 20

TOR121@

PHI112

Jan 11

PHI115@

TOR116today

Jan 13

PHI115@

TOR102

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

219.5

Standard · -6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI-12556%

TOR+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

219.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat PHI 116-115. S. Barnes paced them with 31 PTS, 7 REB, 8 AST. PHI outscored the other side 36-18 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs PHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHIstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 24 REB · 9 AST

GS 53

Bench(5)

34 PTS · 20 REB · 2 AST

GS 22

TORstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

92 PTS · 28 REB · 25 AST

GS 79

Bench(6)

24 PTS · 20 REB · 4 AST

GS 12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI1st Quarter · 11:51 · 0-0

+31pp→ 50% WP

Kelly Oubre Jr. · lost ball turnover (Immanuel Quickley steals)

TOR4th Quarter · 1.9 · 107-107

+41pp→ 49% WP

Jamal Shead · makes layup (Collin Murray-Boyles assists)

TOROT · 0.8 · 115-115

+42pp→ 95% WP

Kelly Oubre Jr. · personal foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
PHI	25	23	36	23	8	115
TOR	22	36	18	31	9	116

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · TOR won 3

Barlow 6

Barnes 10

Maxey 9

Barnes 10

Maxey 11

Agbaji 60

Maxey 10

Quickley 9

Edgecombe 5

Murray-Boyles 4

PHI

TOR

Shooting comparison

PHI

TOR

46%

41-90

40%

41-103

26%

8-31

3PT

16%

5-32

81%

25-31

74%

29-39

Play-by-play · 592 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
PHI 115·TOR 116
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
PHI 115·TOR 116
+2pp
OT·0.8
Raptors offensive team rebound
PHI 115·TOR 116
+1pp
OT·0.8
Scottie Barnes misses free throw 2 of 2
PHI 115·TOR 116
−2pp
OT·0.8
Scottie Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 115·TOR 116
+3pp
OT·0.8
Kelly Oubre Jr. personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHI 115·TOR 115
+42pp
OT·6.3
Raptors Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
PHI 115·TOR 115
−32pp
OT·6.3
Tyrese Maxey personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHI 115·TOR 115
+31pp
OT·15.6
Raptors Full timeout
PHI 115·TOR 115
OT·15.6
VJ Edgecombe makes 30-foot three pointer
PHI 115·TOR 115
−2pp
OT·31.0
Collin Murray-Boyles personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHI 112·TOR 115
−23pp
OT·35.0
76ers Full timeout
PHI 112·TOR 115
OT·35.0
Collin Murray-Boyles makes 1-foot dunk (Immanuel Quickley assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHI 112·TOR 115
+13pp
OT·54.5
Collin Murray-Boyles defensive rebound
PHI 112·TOR 113
+5pp
OT·56.4
VJ Edgecombe misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
PHI 112·TOR 113
+12pp
OT·1:19
Collin Murray-Boyles makes dunk (Jamal Shead assists)
·
PHI 112·TOR 113
−0.8pp
OT·1:36
Tyrese Maxey lost ball turnover (Collin Murray-Boyles steals)
·
PHI 112·TOR 111
OT·1:36
Tyrese Maxey vs. Collin Murray-Boyles (Alijah Martin gains possession)BIG MOMENT
· ·
PHI 112·TOR 111
+14pp
OT·1:54
Jamal Shead makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHI 112·TOR 111
+17pp
OT·1:54
Scottie Barnes offensive rebound
PHI 112·TOR 108
+5pp
OT·1:56
Tyrese Maxey blocks Collin Murray-Boyles 's 2-foot two point shot
·
PHI 112·TOR 108
−5pp
OT·1:58
Collin Murray-Boyles offensive rebound
PHI 112·TOR 108
+5pp
OT·2:00
Immanuel Quickley misses running pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
PHI 112·TOR 108
−5pp
OT·2:07
Immanuel Quickley defensive rebound
PHI 112·TOR 108
+1pp
OT·2:10
VJ Edgecombe misses 30-foot three point jumper
PHI 112·TOR 108
+4pp
OT·2:23
Tyrese Maxey makes technical free throw
PHI 112·TOR 108
−2pp
OT·2:23
Scottie Barnes technical foul
PHI 111·TOR 108
−4pp
OT·2:23
Scottie Barnes personal foul
PHI 111·TOR 108
−0.5pp
OT·2:30
VJ Edgecombe defensive rebound
PHI 111·TOR 108
−2pp
OT·2:32
Immanuel Quickley misses running layupBIG MOMENT
PHI 111·TOR 108
−6pp

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 219.5·PHI -125/TOR +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oronto Raptors held off Philadelphia 76ers, 116–115 in overtime. It came down to the final possession.

TOR +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total cleared the 219.5 OVER by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Ja'Kobe WalterTOR · G
DEFL3.496
Collin Murray-BoylesTOR · F
DEFL3.195
Immanuel QuickleyTOR · G
TOUCHES7294

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHI

league avg

TOR

52.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.5%

46.0%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.1%

114.3

PPG

114.9

114.3

24.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.2

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR