NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5MEM

BKN

11-25

98103

MEM

17-22

NBASun, Jan 11FinalSeriesMEM leads series 1-0VegasMEM -7.5

BKN · top performer

Tyrese Martin

G · #13

17.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MEM · top performer

Jock Landale

C · #31

17.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBKN ↔ MEM

Biggest swing: 37pp · 4th Quarter · 1:18

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. ClowneyF · #21	30	17	4-17	4-15	5-7	-14	6	1
D. WolfF · #2	25	11	4-11	2-5	1-2	-15	10	0
N. ClaxtonC · #33	27	7	3-7	—	1-3	-10	3	5
T. MannG · #14	26	7	3-6	1-3	0-2	-13	4	1
E. DeminG · #8	28	7	2-5	2-4	1-2	-16	1	4
Bench
J. WilsonF · #22	18	11	4-6	3-5	—	+9	1	1
D. SharpeC · #20	21	8	4-7	—	—	+5	13	3
T. MartinG · #13	21	17	6-8	5-7	—	+12	3	1
C. ThomasG · #24	24	9	4-12	1-4	—	+6	2	3
N. TraoreG · #88	20	4	2-9	0-5	—	+11	0	6
Team		98	36-88	18-48	8-16		43	25
DNP: M. Porter Jr., D. Powell

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. Jackson Jr.F · #8	30	14	3-11	0-3	8-8	+5	5	2
C. CowardF · #23	27	21	8-15	5-10	—	+6	8	1
J. WellsF · #0	22	2	1-7	0-3	—	0	2	1
J. LandaleC · #31	28	16	6-11	2-3	2-2	+7	9	1
C. SpencerG · #24	30	12	3-7	1-3	5-5	+2	4	13
Bench
S. AldamaF · #7	33	15	7-10	1-2	—	+8	8	3
GG JacksonF · #45	10	3	1-1	—	1-1	-5	1	0
C. KolokoC · #35	15	2	1-4	—	—	+7	7	1
K. Caldwell-PopeG · #3	20	14	5-11	2-5	2-2	-4	4	1
J. KoncharG · #46	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	+1	1	0
V. Williams Jr.G · #5	21	4	2-10	0-4	—	-2	5	4
Team		103	37-88	11-34	18-18		54	27
DNP: B. Clarke

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BKN

Away

Stat

MEM

Home

36-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-88

FG %

18-48

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-34

8-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MEM leads series 1-0

Jan 11

BKN98@

MEM103today

Mar 9

MEM115@

BKN126

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MEM -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

220.5

Standard · -5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BKN+21532%

MEM-26573%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MEM -7.5↗SpreadBet MEM -7.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

220.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MEM beat BKN 103-98. J. Landale led with 16 PTS, 9 REB, 1 AST. MEM outscored the other side 34-23 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MEM vs BKN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BKNstarters 50% of pts

Starters(5)

49 PTS · 24 REB · 11 AST

GS 35

Bench(5)

49 PTS · 19 REB · 14 AST

GS 45

MEMstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 28 REB · 18 AST

GS 57

Bench(6)

38 PTS · 26 REB · 9 AST

GS 32

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MEM4th Quarter · 5:52 · 91-87

+23pp→ 30% WP

Santi Aldama · blocks Cam Thomas 's 3-foot driving floating jump shot

MEM4th Quarter · 59.6 · 98-101

+19pp→ 74% WP

Cedric Coward · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)

BKN4th Quarter · 1:18 · 98-98

+37pp→ 45% WP

Terance Mann · bad pass turnover (Jock Landale steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BKN	23	27	24	24	98
MEM	34	27	16	26	103

Period scoring

BKN won 1 · MEM won 2

Clowney 6

Coward 13

Martin 8

Landale 7

Wolf 8

Aldama 4

Thomas 7

Jr. 6

BKN

MEM

Shooting comparison

BKN

MEM

41%

36-88

42%

37-88

38%

18-48

3PT

32%

11-34

50%

8-16

100%

18-18

Play-by-play · 460 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BKN 98·MEM 103
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BKN 98·MEM 103
Q4·1.9
Santi Aldama defensive rebound
BKN 98·MEM 103
+0.7pp
Q4·4.8
Danny Wolf misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
BKN 98·MEM 103
+3pp
Q4·10.0
Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
·
BKN 98·MEM 103
−2pp
Q4·10.0
Jock Landale enters the game for Cam Spencer
·
BKN 98·MEM 102
Q4·10.0
Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
·
BKN 98·MEM 102
+0.7pp
Q4·10.0
Danny Wolf personal foulBIG MOMENT
BKN 98·MEM 101
+6pp
Q4·11.3
Jaylen Wells enters the game for Jock LandaleBIG MOMENT
·
BKN 98·MEM 101
+37pp
Q4·11.3
Grizzlies Full timeout
BKN 98·MEM 101
Q4·12.4
Jock Landale offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
BKN 98·MEM 101
+8pp
Q4·15.6
Cedric Coward misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
BKN 98·MEM 101
−2pp
Q4·36.5
Cedric Coward defensive rebound
BKN 98·MEM 101
+3pp
Q4·40.3
Noah Clowney misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
BKN 98·MEM 101
+8pp
Q4·49.9
Danny Wolf offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
BKN 98·MEM 101
−7pp
Q4·53.2
Noah Clowney misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
BKN 98·MEM 101
+8pp
Q4·58.7
Nets Full timeout
BKN 98·MEM 101
Q4·59.6
Cedric Coward makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)BIG MOMENT
·
BKN 98·MEM 101
+20pp
Q4·1:02
Jock Landale offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
BKN 98·MEM 98
+6pp
Q4·1:02
Jock Landale misses tip shotBIG MOMENT
BKN 98·MEM 98
−6pp
Q4·1:02
Jock Landale offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
BKN 98·MEM 98
+6pp
Q4·1:04
Jaren Jackson Jr. misses 26-foot three point jumper
·
BKN 98·MEM 98
+2pp
Q4·1:18
Terance Mann bad pass turnover (Jock Landale steals)BIG MOMENT
·
BKN 98·MEM 98
−37pp
Q4·1:37
Santi Aldama makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Cam Spencer assists)BIG MOMENT
·
BKN 98·MEM 98
+9pp
Q4·1:40
Jock Landale defensive rebound
BKN 98·MEM 96
+3pp
Q4·1:43
Jaren Jackson Jr. blocks Danny Wolf 's 7-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
· ·
BKN 98·MEM 96
+18pp
Q4·1:54
Santi Aldama personal foulBIG MOMENT
BKN 98·MEM 96
−14pp
Q4·2:18
Cedric Coward makes 24-foot running jump shot (Cam Spencer assists)BIG MOMENT
·
BKN 98·MEM 96
+14pp
Q4·2:21
Cam Spencer defensive rebound
BKN 98·MEM 93
+1pp
Q4·2:26
Noah Clowney misses 25-foot three point jumper
BKN 98·MEM 93
+3pp

Betting line

MEM -7.5·O/U 220.5·BKN +215/MEM -265

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

emphis Grizzlies held off Brooklyn Nets, 103–98. Decided by 5.

BKN +7.5 cashed (MEM won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 220.5 by 19.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH · F
CONT9.197
Nic ClaxtonCHI · C
CONT7.392
Cam SpencerMEM · G
TS%64.992
Day'Ron SharpeBKN · C
TS%63.890
Santi AldamaDAL · F
CONT6.790

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BKN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MEM vs BKN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 115 high confidence

Points

Michael Porter Jr.BKN
22.7± 6.2high
Ty JeromeMEM
18.9± 4.2medium
Julius RandleBKN
17.3± 6.4high

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Julius RandleBKN
7.2± 2.1high
Michael Porter Jr.BKN
6.9± 5.2high

Assists

Ty JeromeMEM
5.4± 2.7medium
Walter Clayton Jr.MEM
4.7± 2.9high
Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
4.6± 2.2low

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Josh MinottBKN
0.9± 1.2high
GG JacksonMEM
0.9± 0.7high

Steals

Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Taylor HendricksMEM
1.5± 2.0high
Josh MinottBKN
1.3± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BKN

league avg

MEM

52.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.3%

44.3%

FG%

47.0

▶

45.6%

105.9

PPG

114.9

▶

114.7

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.8

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR