NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10ORL

9-32

118128

ORL

22-18

NBASun, Jan 11FinalSeriesORL leads series 1-0VegasORL -7.5

NO · top performer

Zion Williamson

F · #1

18.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ORL · top performer

Anthony Black

G · #0

27.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNO ↔ ORL

Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 8:33

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	32	22	9-14	—	4-5	-10	3	3
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	37	21	8-15	3-7	2-2	-11	7	6
D. QueenC · #22	28	10	4-8	—	2-3	-19	3	6
B. McGowensG · #11	26	6	2-4	2-4	—	-22	1	2
J. FearsG · #0	28	16	7-12	2-3	—	-9	4	3
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	18	11	4-4	1-1	2-2	+2	0	1
Y. MissiC · #21	18	7	3-4	—	1-1	+7	5	0
J. PooleG · #3	23	21	7-11	6-8	1-2	-3	0	2
M. PeavyG · #14	19	2	1-6	0-3	—	+14	1	3
J. HawkinsG · #24	11	2	1-2	—	—	+1	2	1
Team		118	46-80	14-26	12-15		26	27
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, T. Alexander

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	39	23	7-16	0-2	9-10	+18	8	8
N. PendaF · #93	38	9	2-6	2-3	3-4	+21	6	2
G. BitadzeC · #35	32	14	7-10	0-1	—	+23	13	1
D. BaneG · #3	35	27	9-18	1-4	8-8	+17	5	4
A. BlackG · #0	36	26	9-10	3-4	5-7	+17	5	7
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	10	8	3-7	0-2	2-2	-6	2	2
J. IsaacF · #1	9	0	0-1	—	—	-13	0	1
J. CainF · #8	3	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
T. da SilvaF · #23	19	16	4-7	4-5	4-4	-7	0	1
T. JonesG · #2	12	2	1-4	0-1	—	-7	0	1
J. RichardsonG · #11	7	3	1-3	1-2	—	-11	0	0
Team		128	43-82	11-24	31-35		39	27
DNP: O. Robinson, J. Howard

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

ORL

Home

46-80

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-82

FG %

14-26

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-24

12-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

31-35

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ORL leads series 1-0

Jan 11

NO118@

ORL128today

Apr 5

ORL112@

NO108

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ORL -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

236.5

High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO+21032%

ORL-25872%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ORL -7.5↗SpreadBet ORL -7.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

236.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ORL beat NO 128-118. A. Black paced them with 26 PTS, 5 REB, 7 AST. ORL outscored the other side 37-20 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ORL vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 18 REB · 20 AST

GS 62

Bench(5)

43 PTS · 8 REB · 7 AST

GS 36

ORLstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

99 PTS · 37 REB · 22 AST

GS 96

Bench(6)

29 PTS · 2 REB · 5 AST

GS 20

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NO3rd Quarter · 1:19 · 94-88

+11pp→ 73% WP

Karlo Matkovic · blocks Desmond Bane 's 2-foot driving layup

ORL4th Quarter · 8:33 · 107-102

+15pp→ 40% WP

Bryce McGowens · shooting foul

NO4th Quarter · 4:52 · 115-113

+14pp→ 57% WP

Jeremiah Fears · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bryce McGowens assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	26	33	39	20	118
ORL	26	32	33	37	128

Period scoring

NO won 2 · ORL won 1

III 6

Banchero 12

Poole 10

Black 10

III 14

Matkovic 23

Poole 5

Bane 12

ORL

Shooting comparison

ORL

57%

46-80

52%

43-82

54%

14-26

3PT

46%

11-24

80%

12-15

89%

31-35

Play-by-play · 446 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 118·ORL 128
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 118·ORL 128
Q4·15.5
Paolo Banchero defensive rebound
NO 118·ORL 128
Q4·19.3
Trey Murphy III misses 32-foot three point pullup jump shot
NO 118·ORL 128
Q4·23.7
Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 118·ORL 128
Q4·23.7
Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 118·ORL 127
Q4·23.7
Jeremiah Fears personal take foul
NO 118·ORL 126
Q4·26.2
Trey Murphy III lost ball turnover (Goga Bitadze steals)
·
NO 118·ORL 126
+0.8pp
Q4·34.1
Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 118·ORL 126
−0.6pp
Q4·34.1
Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 118·ORL 125
Q4·34.1
Yves Missi personal foul
NO 118·ORL 124
+2pp
Q4·37.2
Yves Missi enters the game for Derik Queen
·
NO 118·ORL 124
Q4·37.2
Magic Full timeout
NO 118·ORL 124
Q4·43.4
Goga Bitadze defensive rebound
NO 118·ORL 124
+0.7pp
Q4·44.8
Derik Queen misses driving layup
NO 118·ORL 124
+2pp
Q4·51.0
Jordan Poole enters the game for Bryce McGowens
· ·
NO 118·ORL 124
Q4·51.0
Trey Murphy III makes technical free throw
NO 118·ORL 124
−3pp
Q4·51.0
Goga Bitadze defensive 3-seconds (technical foul)
NO 117·ORL 124
+1pp
Q4·1:02
Paolo Banchero makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 117·ORL 124
−1pp
Q4·1:02
Pelicans Full timeout
NO 117·ORL 123
Q4·1:02
Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 117·ORL 123
+0.5pp
Q4·1:02
Zion Williamson personal foul
NO 117·ORL 122
+4pp
Q4·1:13
Zion Williamson bad pass turnover (Anthony Black steals)BIG MOMENT
·
NO 117·ORL 122
+5pp
Q4·1:38
Desmond Bane makes 7-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
NO 117·ORL 122
+6pp
Q4·1:59
Noah Penda defensive rebound
NO 117·ORL 120
+2pp
Q4·2:01
Jeremiah Fears misses running layupBIG MOMENT
NO 117·ORL 120
+6pp
Q4·2:06
Jeremiah Fears defensive rebound
NO 117·ORL 120
−2pp
Q4·2:09
Derik Queen blocks Paolo Banchero 's 4-foot hook shot
·
NO 117·ORL 120
−5pp
Q4·2:23
Paolo Banchero defensive rebound
NO 117·ORL 120
+2pp
Q4·2:25
Zion Williamson misses 11-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
NO 117·ORL 120
+6pp

Betting line

ORL -7.5·O/U 236.5·NO +210/ORL -258

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

rlando Magic held off New Orleans Pelicans, 128–118.

ORL -7.5 cashed (won by 10). Total cleared the 236.5 OVER by 9.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Goga BitadzeORL · C
TS%70.099
Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Anthony BlackORL · G
DEFL3.797
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ORL vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high

Rebounds

Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high

Assists

Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

ORL

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

52.5%

46.6%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

115.5

PPG

◀

114.9

114.2

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

26.0

13.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR