NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5SA

27-11

10095

BOS

24-14

NBASat, Jan 10FinalSeriesSA leads series 1-0VegasSA -1.5

SA · top performer

De'Aaron Fox

G · #4

19.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Derrick White

G · #9

22.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 25pp · 4th Quarter · 19.1

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. BarnesF · #40	26	6	2-8	1-5	1-2	+1	1	3
J. ChampagnieF · #30	35	12	5-12	2-8	—	+14	13	3
L. KornetC · #7	24	5	2-2	—	1-2	-2	7	1
D. FoxG · #4	36	21	9-16	1-6	2-2	-3	9	6
S. CastleG · #5	27	9	3-16	1-7	2-5	-7	2	5
Bench
K. OlynykF · #8	7	3	1-1	1-1	—	-3	1	1
L. Waters IIIF · #43	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	+4	0	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	28	18	6-13	2-7	4-5	+4	10	1
J. SochanF · #10	4	0	0-2	0-2	—	-4	0	0
V. WembanyamaF · #1	26	21	8-17	1-4	4-4	+15	6	1
D. HarperG · #2	22	5	2-7	1-3	—	+6	4	1
Team		100	38-95	10-44	14-20		53	22
DNP: C. Bryant, B. Biyombo, J. McLaughlin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. QuetaC · #88	24	9	4-6	—	1-2	+3	13	2
D. WhiteG · #9	42	29	11-26	5-17	2-2	-6	9	3
J. BrownG · #7	43	27	11-28	5-11	—	-1	8	7
P. PritchardG · #11	29	4	2-9	0-3	—	-1	5	4
H. GonzalezG · #28	13	0	0-2	0-2	—	+3	4	3
Bench
L. GarzaC · #52	25	11	4-6	3-4	—	-14	6	0
A. SimonsG · #4	25	5	2-8	1-4	—	-1	2	3
B. ScheiermanG · #55	26	10	4-5	2-3	—	+4	2	0
J. WalshG · #27	13	0	0-3	—	—	-12	3	0
Team		95	38-93	16-44	3-4		52	22
DNP: C. Boucher, X. Tillman, A. Williams, R. Harper Jr., M. Shulga

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

38-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-93

FG %

10-44

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-44

14-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

3-4

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SA leads series 1-0

Jan 11

SA100@

BOS95today

Mar 11

BOS116@

SA125

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

231.5

Standard · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA-11253%

BOS-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -1.5↗SpreadBet SA -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

231.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat BOS 100-95. D. Fox led with 21 PTS, 9 REB, 6 AST. Victor Wembanyama's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

53 PTS · 32 REB · 18 AST

GS 46

Bench(6)

47 PTS · 21 REB · 4 AST

GS 31

BOSstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 39 REB · 19 AST

GS 52

Bench(4)

26 PTS · 13 REB · 3 AST

GS 19

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA4th Quarter · 2:15 · 93-91

+18pp→ 66% WP

Keldon Johnson · makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)

BOS4th Quarter · 37.0 · 97-93

+15pp→ 29% WP

Luke Kornet · shooting foul

SA4th Quarter · 19.1 · 99-94

+25pp→ 93% WP

Victor Wembanyama · makes 15-foot pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	21	29	23	27	100
BOS	26	29	20	20	95

Period scoring

SA won 2 · BOS won 1

Johnson 6

Brown 12

Champagnie 7

White 15

Wembanyama 9

Brown 8

Wembanyama 7

White 9

BOS

Shooting comparison

BOS

40%

38-95

41%

38-93

23%

10-44

3PT

36%

16-44

70%

14-20

75%

3-4

Play-by-play · 468 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 100·BOS 95
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 100·BOS 95
−3pp
Q4·7.1
Luke Kornet makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 100·BOS 95
Q4·7.1
Spurs offensive team rebound
SA 99·BOS 95
+1pp
Q4·7.1
Luke Kornet misses free throw 1 of 2
SA 99·BOS 95
+0.7pp
Q4·7.1
Derrick White personal take foul
SA 99·BOS 95
−2pp
Q4·7.3
Luke Kornet defensive rebound
SA 99·BOS 95
−1pp
Q4·7.3
Julian Champagnie blocks Derrick White 's 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
·
SA 99·BOS 95
−7pp
Q4·13.2
Derrick White offensive rebound
SA 99·BOS 95
+4pp
Q4·13.2
Jaylen Brown misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SA 99·BOS 95
−16pp
Q4·19.1
Victor Wembanyama makes 15-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SA 99·BOS 94
−25pp
Q4·37.0
Derrick White makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
SA 97·BOS 95
+16pp
Q4·37.0
Neemias Queta enters the game for Anfernee Simons
·
SA 97·BOS 94
Q4·37.0
Derrick White makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 97·BOS 94
+3pp
Q4·37.0
Luke Kornet shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SA 97·BOS 93
+15pp
Q4·40.5
Baylor Scheierman enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
SA 97·BOS 93
Q4·40.5
Anfernee Simons enters the game for Luka Garza
·
SA 97·BOS 93
Q4·40.5
Celtics Full timeout
SA 97·BOS 93
Q4·40.5
Julian Champagnie makes two point shot
SA 97·BOS 93
−5pp
Q4·41.5
Julian Champagnie offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
SA 95·BOS 93
−6pp
Q4·42.4
Julian Champagnie misses running layupBIG MOMENT
SA 95·BOS 93
+6pp
Q4·47.0
Jaylen Brown lost ball turnover (De'Aaron Fox steals)BIG MOMENT
·
SA 95·BOS 93
−8pp
Q4·51.4
Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
SA 95·BOS 93
+2pp
Q4·54.0
Victor Wembanyama misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
SA 95·BOS 93
+4pp
Q4·1:15
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
SA 95·BOS 93
−2pp
Q4·1:19
Jaylen Brown misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SA 95·BOS 93
−7pp
Q4·1:33
Victor Wembanyama makes 14-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
SA 95·BOS 93
−11pp
Q4·1:40
Neemias Queta enters the game for Baylor Scheierman
·
SA 93·BOS 93
Q4·1:56
Jaylen Brown makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
SA 93·BOS 93
+8pp
Q4·2:15
Keldon Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SA 93·BOS 91
−18pp

Betting line

SA -1.5·O/U 231.5·SA -112/BOS -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs went into Boston Celtics and beat them, 100–95. Decided by 5.

SA -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 231.5 by 36.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luke KornetSA · C
TS%68.797
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.594

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

BOS

55.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.5%

118.2

PPG

◀

114.9

114.2

27.3

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.6

12.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR