MIN
25-14
CLE
22-18
MIN · top performer
Naz Reid
C · #11
25
Pts
5
Reb
3
Ast
CLE · top performer
Donovan Mitchell
G · #45
28
Pts
3
Reb
8
Ast
Biggest swing: 9pp · 3rd Quarter · 6:11
NBA · Minnesota Timberwolves at Cleveland Cavaliers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 20 | 8-15 | 1-5 | 3-3 | -20 | 4 | 4 | |
| 27 | 12 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 4-5 | -17 | 1 | 1 | |
| 31 | 8 | 4-6 | — | — | -8 | 12 | 2 | |
| 35 | 15 | 6-9 | 3-6 | — | -11 | 3 | 6 | |
| 35 | 25 | 10-24 | 4-9 | 1-2 | -16 | 5 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 6 | 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | +4 | 1 | 0 | |
| 3 | 6 | 3-3 | — | — | +4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 28 | 25 | 9-12 | 5-6 | 2-2 | -4 | 5 | 3 | |
| 15 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | +5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 1-1 | — | 2-2 | +4 | 1 | 0 | |
| 20 | 12 | 5-8 | 2-2 | — | -5 | 2 | 7 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0-1 | — | 1-2 | +4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 134 | 51-89 | 16-32 | 16-20 | 40 | 31 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 28 | 16 | 6-10 | — | 4-5 | +22 | 11 | 4 | |
| 32 | 24 | 11-16 | 0-3 | 2-4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | |
| 31 | 28 | 9-21 | 4-10 | 6-7 | +1 | 3 | 8 | |
| 26 | 20 | 5-7 | 5-6 | 5-5 | +20 | 2 | 1 | |
| 29 | 22 | 10-13 | 1-3 | 1-1 | +21 | 0 | 6 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 21 | 4 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | -6 | 2 | 2 | |
| 16 | 4 | 2-2 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | — | -3 | 0 | 1 | |
| 26 | 23 | 9-12 | 4-4 | 1-1 | +14 | 2 | 2 | |
| 26 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 | — | -5 | 6 | 8 | |
| 3 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 146 | 55-92 | 15-31 | 21-25 | 31 | 38 | ||
| DNP: L. Nance Jr., L. Ball | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
57
FG %
60
31
Ast
38
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
CLE
Home
51-89
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
55-92
57
FG %
60
16-32
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
15-31
16-20
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
21-25
31
Assists
38
15
Turnovers
9
Season series
Series tied 1-1
CLE122@MIN131MIN134@CLE146todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CLE -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
240.5
High-scoring · +14.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN+12045%CLE-14259%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
240.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
CLE beat MIN 146-134. D. Mitchell paced them with 28 PTS, 3 REB, 8 AST. CLE outscored the other side 36-26 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CLE vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 60% of ptsStarters(5)
80 PTS · 25 REB · 16 AST
GS 64
Bench(8)
54 PTS · 15 REB · 15 AST
GS 55
CLEstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
110 PTS · 20 REB · 22 AST
GS 101
Bench(6)
36 PTS · 11 REB · 16 AST
GS 35
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJaylon Tyson · bad pass turnover (Joe Ingles steals)
Julius Randle · misses 24-foot three point jumper
Donovan Mitchell · makes 26-foot three pointer (Craig Porter Jr. assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 33 | 32 | 26 | 43 | 134 |
| CLE | 29 | 34 | 36 | 47 | 146 |
Period scoring
MIN won 1 · CLE won 3
Q1
Randle 7
Tyson 8
Q2
Reid 11
Merrill 9
Q3
Edwards 14
Mitchell 12
Q4
Reid 12
Tyson 20
Shooting comparison
57%
51-89
FG
60%
55-92
50%
16-32
3PT
48%
15-31
80%
16-20
FT
84%
21-25
Play-by-play · 457 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 134·CLE 146
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 134·CLE 146
- Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Timberwolves] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
MIN 134·CLE 146
- Q4·0.0
Jaylon Tyson makes 1-foot driving dunk (Nae'Qwan Tomlin assists)
·
MIN 134·CLE 146
- Q4·12.6
Thomas Bryant defensive goaltending violation
MIN 134·CLE 144
- Q4·12.6
Johnny Juzang makes two point shot
MIN 134·CLE 144
- Q4·15.6
Johnny Juzang offensive rebound
MIN 132·CLE 144
- Q4·17.1
Leonard Miller misses two point shot
MIN 132·CLE 144
- Q4·17.7
Leonard Miller offensive rebound
MIN 132·CLE 144
- Q4·19.4
Thomas Bryant blocks Rob Dillingham 's 2-foot driving layup
·
MIN 132·CLE 144
- Q4·19.9
Rob Dillingham defensive rebound
MIN 132·CLE 144
- Q4·23.8
Jaylon Tyson misses driving dunk
MIN 132·CLE 144
- Q4·37.1
Joan Beringer makes 1-foot dunk (Joe Ingles assists)
·
MIN 132·CLE 144
- Q4·41.9
Jaylon Tyson lost ball turnover (Joan Beringer steals)
· ·
MIN 130·CLE 144
- Q4·57.0
Joe Ingles makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 130·CLE 144
- Q4·57.0
Joe Ingles makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 129·CLE 144
- Q4·57.0
Tyrese Proctor shooting foul
MIN 128·CLE 144
- Q4·1:17
Thomas Bryant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Craig Porter Jr. assists)
·
MIN 128·CLE 144
- Q4·1:27
Johnny Juzang makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 128·CLE 141
- Q4·1:27
Johnny Juzang makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 127·CLE 141
- Q4·1:27
Nae'Qwan Tomlin personal foul
MIN 126·CLE 141
- Q4·1:29
Tyrese Proctor bad pass turnover (Johnny Juzang steals)
·
MIN 126·CLE 141
- Q4·1:40
Joan Beringer makes 1-foot layup (Joe Ingles assists)
·
MIN 126·CLE 141
- Q4·2:04
Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes 1-foot running dunk (Tyrese Proctor assists)
·
MIN 124·CLE 141
- Q4·2:09
Rob Dillingham bad pass turnover (Nae'Qwan Tomlin steals)
·
MIN 124·CLE 139
- Q4·2:21
Tyrese Proctor makes 2-foot two point shot (Thomas Bryant assists)
·
MIN 124·CLE 139
- Q4·2:33
Joan Beringer makes 4-foot layup (Rob Dillingham assists)
·
MIN 124·CLE 137
- Q4·2:42
Thomas Bryant enters the game for Evan Mobley
·
MIN 122·CLE 137
- Q4·2:42
Joan Beringer offensive rebound
MIN 122·CLE 137
- Q4·2:42
Rob Dillingham misses free throw 2 of 2
MIN 122·CLE 137
Betting line
CLE -2.5·O/U 240.5·MIN +120/CLE -142
Recap · NBA
leveland Cavaliers held off Minnesota Timberwolves, 146–134.
CLE -2.5 cashed (won by 12). Total cleared the 240.5 OVER by 39.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort
Rudy GobertMIN · CCONT1299+
Jarrett AllenCLE · CCONT9.899- Donovan MitchellCLE · GUSG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · CCONT9.498
Anthony EdwardsMIN · GUSG%31.397
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CLE vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
160
projections · 130 high confidence
Points
- Donovan MitchellCLE27.5± 7.3high
- Anthony EdwardsMIN23.7± 9.4high
- LaMelo BallMIN22.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Rudy GobertMIN10.1± 3.9high
- Evan MobleyCLE8.0± 3.5high
- Jarrett AllenCLE7.3± 2.3high
Assists
- LaMelo BallMIN7.3± 2.5high
- James HardenCLE5.9± 2.8high
- Donovan MitchellCLE3.9± 2.0high
Blocks
- Evan MobleyCLE2.1± 1.3high
- Rudy GobertMIN1.4± 1.2high
- Jarrett AllenCLE1.3± 0.7high
Steals
- Donovan MitchellCLE1.5± 1.8high
- James HardenCLE1.4± 1.2high
- Donte DiVincenzoMIN1.2± 1.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIN
league avg
CLE
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.6%
47.6%
FG%
47.0
47.7%
116.8
PPG
114.9
117.4
25.7
Assists / G
25.0
▶27.1
14.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.8