NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1OKC

OKC

32-7

117116

MEM

16-22

NBAFri, Jan 9FinalSeriesOKC wins series 3-0VegasOKC -5.5

OKC · top performer

Jalen Williams

G · #8

22.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MEM · top performer

Jaren Jackson Jr.

F · #8

18.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowOKC ↔ MEM

Biggest swing: 49pp · 4th Quarter · 58.9

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarlsonC · #15	16	5	2-5	1-3	—	-16	1	0
L. DortG · #5	35	13	5-12	1-7	2-2	+12	6	4
A. WigginsG · #21	32	16	7-13	1-3	1-1	+7	7	1
Jal. WilliamsG · #8	36	26	9-18	0-3	8-10	+2	5	10
A. MitchellG · #25	38	23	9-18	2-6	3-5	+15	3	6
Bench
B. BarnhizerF · #23	7	0	0-1	0-1	—	-5	2	0
O. DiengF · #13	7	3	1-1	1-1	—	-7	0	1
A. CarusoG · #9	24	7	2-4	0-1	3-3	-3	3	2
K. WilliamsG · #34	29	21	8-13	3-7	2-3	+14	8	0
I. JoeG · #11	16	3	0-6	0-5	3-4	-14	1	0
Team		117	43-91	9-37	22-28		36	24
DNP: Jay. Williams, C. Youngblood

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. Jackson Jr.F · #8	32	23	9-14	2-5	3-3	0	7	1
C. CowardF · #23	26	13	3-9	1-3	6-7	+4	9	4
J. WellsF · #0	28	10	3-13	1-6	3-4	-16	4	3
J. LandaleC · #31	28	13	5-7	1-3	2-2	+5	10	2
C. SpencerG · #24	30	7	2-8	1-4	2-2	+5	4	11
Bench
S. AldamaF · #7	29	15	6-9	2-4	1-2	+4	7	7
GG JacksonF · #45	21	18	7-12	3-8	1-2	+1	2	0
C. KolokoC · #35	14	2	1-4	—	—	-1	5	1
K. Caldwell-PopeG · #3	10	2	1-4	0-2	—	+1	1	1
V. Williams Jr.G · #5	23	13	4-8	3-6	2-2	-8	3	5
Team		116	41-88	14-41	20-24		52	35
DNP: B. Clarke, J. Konchar

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

OKC

Away

Stat

MEM

Home

43-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-88

FG %

9-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-41

22-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-24

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

OKC wins series 3-0

Nov 9

OKC114@

MEM100

Dec 23

MEM103@

OKC119

Jan 10

OKC117@

MEM116today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

OKC-21869%

MEM+18036%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -5.5↗SpreadBet OKC -5.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat MEM 117-116. Jal. Williams paced them with 26 PTS, 5 REB, 10 AST. OKC outscored the other side 36-22 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MEM vs OKC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

OKCstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 22 REB · 21 AST

GS 70

Bench(5)

34 PTS · 14 REB · 3 AST

GS 30

MEMstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 34 REB · 21 AST

GS 52

Bench(5)

50 PTS · 18 REB · 14 AST

GS 43

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

OKC4th Quarter · 1:07 · 115-114

+17pp→ 55% WP

Kenrich Williams · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)

OKC4th Quarter · 58.9 · 115-114

+49pp→ 55% WP

Santi Aldama · enters the game for Vince Williams Jr.

OKC4th Quarter · 0.7 · 117-116

+44pp→ 98% WP

Alex Caruso · blocks Cedric Coward 's 13-foot floating jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
OKC	25	21	35	36	117
MEM	35	30	29	22	116

Period scoring

OKC won 2 · MEM won 2

Mitchell 6

Landale 9

Wiggins 7

Jr. 12

Mitchell 8

Jr. 6

Williams 12

Aldama 29

OKC

MEM

Shooting comparison

OKC

MEM

47%

43-91

47%

41-88

24%

9-37

3PT

34%

14-41

79%

22-28

83%

20-24

Play-by-play · 512 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 117·MEM 116
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 117·MEM 116
−2pp
Q4·0.7
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
OKC 117·MEM 116
Q4·0.7
Alex Caruso blocks Cedric Coward 's 13-foot floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
OKC 117·MEM 116
−44pp
Q4·15.5
Jaren Jackson Jr. defensive rebound
·
OKC 117·MEM 116
+4pp
Q4·17.5
Jalen Williams misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
· ·
OKC 117·MEM 116
+9pp
Q4·37.3
Jock Landale makes 9-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
OKC 117·MEM 116
+9pp
Q4·39.5
Jock Landale offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
OKC 117·MEM 114
+7pp
Q4·42.1
Cedric Coward misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
OKC 117·MEM 114
−9pp
Q4·58.9
Luguentz Dort makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
OKC 117·MEM 114
+7pp
Q4·58.9
Luguentz Dort makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
OKC 116·MEM 114
−27pp
Q4·58.9
Santi Aldama enters the game for Vince Williams Jr.BIG MOMENT
· ·
OKC 115·MEM 114
−49pp
Q4·58.9
(00:58.9) [Grizzlies] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Grizzlies] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
OKC 115·MEM 114
+11pp
Q4·58.9
Grizzlies Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
OKC 115·MEM 114
+14pp
Q4·58.9
Jaren Jackson Jr. personal foulBIG MOMENT
·
OKC 115·MEM 114
−14pp
Q4·59.1
Jaren Jackson Jr. bad pass turnover (Luguentz Dort steals)BIG MOMENT
· ·
OKC 115·MEM 114
−11pp
Q4·1:07
Kenrich Williams makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
OKC 115·MEM 114
−17pp
Q4·1:27
Alex Caruso defensive rebound
OKC 112·MEM 114
−3pp
Q4·1:30
Cam Spencer misses 22-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
OKC 112·MEM 114
−7pp
Q4·1:32
Alex Caruso enters the game for Aaron Wiggins
·
OKC 112·MEM 114
Q4·1:54
Jalen Williams lost ball turnover (Jaren Jackson Jr. steals)BIG MOMENT
· ·
OKC 112·MEM 114
+10pp
Q4·2:03
Vince Williams Jr. enters the game for Jaylen Wells
· ·
OKC 112·MEM 114
Q4·2:03
Thunder defensive team rebound
OKC 112·MEM 114
−2pp
Q4·2:04
Jaren Jackson Jr. misses 7-foot turnaround jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
OKC 112·MEM 114
−6pp
Q4·2:26
Ajay Mitchell makes 26-foot running jump shot (Jalen Williams assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
OKC 112·MEM 114
−13pp
Q4·2:29
Jalen Williams defensive rebound
· ·
OKC 109·MEM 114
−1pp
Q4·2:33
Jaylen Wells misses driving floating jump shot
OKC 109·MEM 114
−3pp
Q4·2:52
Kenrich Williams makes free throw 1 of 1
· ·
OKC 109·MEM 114
−2pp
Q4·2:52
Jock Landale enters the game for Santi Aldama
·
OKC 108·MEM 114
Q4·2:52
(02:52) [Thunder] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)BIG MOMENT
OKC 108·MEM 114
+6pp

Betting line

OKC -5.5·O/U 229.5·OKC -218/MEM +180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder went into Memphis Grizzlies and beat them, 117–116. It came down to the final possession.

MEM +5.5 cashed (OKC won by 1). Total cleared the 229.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ajay MitchellOKC · G
DRIVES14.797
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH · F
CONT9.197
Jalen WilliamsOKC · G
DRIVES12.594
Cam SpencerMEM · G
TS%64.992
Santi AldamaDAL · F
CONT6.790

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · OKC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MEM vs OKC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

145

projections · 115 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Ty JeromeMEM
18.9± 4.2medium
Jalen WilliamsOKC
16.0± 8.1high

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high

Assists

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
Ty JeromeMEM
5.4± 2.7medium
Jalen WilliamsOKC
4.8± 2.9high

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
GG JacksonMEM
0.9± 0.7high

Steals

Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Taylor HendricksMEM
1.5± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

OKC

league avg

MEM

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.3%

48.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.6%

118.5

PPG

◀

114.9

114.7

25.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.8

11.9

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR