NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4DEN

DEN

25-12

114110

BOS

23-13

NBAWed, Jan 7FinalSeriesDEN leads series 1-0VegasBOS -10.5

DEN · top performer

Jamal Murray

G · #27

26.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Payton Pritchard

G · #11

15.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDEN ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 13pp · 4th Quarter · 5:32

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. Holmes IIF · #14	13	6	2-6	2-5	—	-2	2	1
S. JonesF · #21	9	2	0-1	0-1	2-2	-1	3	0
J. MurrayG · #27	37	22	8-18	3-9	3-4	-1	8	17
C. BraunG · #0	30	5	2-5	1-1	0-1	+4	5	2
P. WatsonG · #8	37	30	10-15	6-7	4-8	+4	6	2
Bench
A. GordonF · #32	23	12	5-12	2-6	—	+2	6	2
Z. NnajiF · #22	25	12	3-9	1-3	5-7	+6	2	1
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	26	14	4-9	4-8	2-2	+4	2	0
B. BrownG · #11	19	4	2-6	0-1	—	-3	1	0
J. PickettG · #24	21	7	3-6	1-3	—	+7	4	2
Team		114	39-87	20-44	16-24		39	27
DNP: H. Tyson, J. Strawther

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	30	6	2-6	2-6	—	+4	2	2
N. QuetaC · #88	24	6	3-8	—	—	-16	20	0
D. WhiteG · #9	34	17	7-19	3-12	—	-14	4	4
J. BrownG · #7	34	33	14-29	4-6	1-3	-14	7	4
P. PritchardG · #11	34	17	5-13	1-6	6-6	-5	5	2
Bench
L. GarzaC · #52	19	11	5-5	1-1	—	+8	5	0
A. SimonsG · #4	26	15	6-9	3-4	—	-9	4	2
B. ScheiermanG · #55	4	1	—	—	1-2	+13	1	1
J. WalshG · #27	14	1	0-2	0-1	1-2	+4	1	1
H. GonzalezG · #28	21	3	1-4	1-2	0-2	+9	4	0
Team		110	43-95	15-38	9-15		53	16
DNP: C. Boucher, X. Tillman, J. Minott

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DEN

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

39-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-95

FG %

20-44

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-38

16-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

9-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DEN leads series 1-0

Jan 8

DEN114@

BOS110today

Feb 26

BOS84@

DEN103

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DEN+29525%

BOS-37579%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -10.5↗SpreadBet BOS -10.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DEN beat BOS 114-110. J. Murray led with 22 PTS, 8 REB, 17 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs DEN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DENstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 24 REB · 22 AST

GS 61

Bench(5)

49 PTS · 15 REB · 5 AST

GS 40

BOSstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 38 REB · 12 AST

GS 55

Bench(5)

31 PTS · 15 REB · 4 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DEN4th Quarter · 10:04 · 85-86

+9pp→ 36% WP

Jalen Pickett · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)

DEN4th Quarter · 7:07 · 89-90

+12pp→ 48% WP

Jaylen Brown · shooting foul

DEN4th Quarter · 5:32 · 95-90

+13pp→ 76% WP

Christian Braun · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DEN	31	27	21	35	114
BOS	35	23	24	28	110

Period scoring

DEN won 2 · BOS won 2

Watson 6

Brown 15

Gordon 7

Pritchard 7

Watson 5

Hauser 16

Nnaji 9

Pritchard 10

DEN

BOS

Shooting comparison

DEN

BOS

45%

39-87

45%

43-95

45%

20-44

3PT

39%

15-38

67%

16-24

60%

9-15

Play-by-play · 475 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DEN 114·BOS 110
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DEN 114·BOS 110
Q4·0.1
Nuggets offensive team rebound
DEN 114·BOS 110
Q4·0.2
Jamal Murray misses 22-foot fade away jump shot
DEN 114·BOS 110
−0.9pp
Q4·2.9
Jamal Murray offensive rebound
DEN 114·BOS 110
−2pp
Q4·2.9
Jamal Murray misses free throw 2 of 2
DEN 114·BOS 110
+2pp
Q4·2.9
Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 114·BOS 110
Q4·2.9
Hugo Gonzalez personal take foul
DEN 113·BOS 110
−4pp
Q4·6.5
Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Zeke Nnaji
·
DEN 113·BOS 110
Q4·6.5
Nuggets Full timeout
DEN 113·BOS 110
Q4·6.5
Payton Pritchard makes free throw 3 of 3
DEN 113·BOS 110
−5pp
Q4·6.5
Zeke Nnaji enters the game for Jalen Pickett
·
DEN 113·BOS 109
Q4·6.5
Payton Pritchard makes free throw 2 of 3
DEN 113·BOS 109
+4pp
Q4·6.5
Payton Pritchard makes free throw 1 of 3
DEN 113·BOS 108
+0.7pp
Q4·6.5
Peyton Watson shooting foul
DEN 113·BOS 107
+3pp
Q4·12.8
Sam Hauser defensive rebound
DEN 113·BOS 107
Q4·12.8
Peyton Watson misses free throw 2 of 2
DEN 113·BOS 107
+1pp
Q4·12.8
Nuggets offensive team rebound
DEN 113·BOS 107
Q4·12.8
Peyton Watson misses free throw 1 of 2
DEN 113·BOS 107
Q4·12.8
Baylor Scheierman personal take foul
DEN 113·BOS 107
−0.6pp
Q4·13.7
Jalen Pickett enters the game for Zeke Nnaji
·
DEN 113·BOS 107
Q4·13.7
Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Luka Garza
·
DEN 113·BOS 107
Q4·13.7
Nuggets defensive team rebound
DEN 113·BOS 107
Q4·13.7
Baylor Scheierman misses free throw 2 of 2
DEN 113·BOS 107
−4pp
Q4·13.7
Aaron Gordon enters the game for Jalen Pickett
·
DEN 113·BOS 107
Q4·13.7
Luka Garza enters the game for Hugo Gonzalez
·
DEN 113·BOS 107
Q4·13.7
Jordan Walsh enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
DEN 113·BOS 107
Q4·13.7
Baylor Scheierman makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 113·BOS 107
+0.6pp
Q4·13.7
Peyton Watson personal foul
DEN 113·BOS 106
+3pp
Q4·17.3
Peyton Watson makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 113·BOS 106

Betting line

BOS -10.5·O/U 230.5·DEN +295/BOS -375

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

enver Nuggets went into Boston Celtics and beat them, 114–110. Decided by 4.

DEN +10.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 230.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
Aaron GordonDEN · F
CONT6.790
Payton PritchardBOS · G
TOUCHES65.689

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DEN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DEN

league avg

BOS

57.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.1%

49.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.5%

121.1

PPG

◀

114.9

114.2

28.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.6

12.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR