NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8LAL

LAL

23-11

111103

8-30

NBATue, Jan 6FinalSeriesLAL lead series 3-0VegasLAL -5.5

LAL · top performer

LeBron James

F · #23

29.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NO · top performer

Trey Murphy III

F · #25

32.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAL ↔ NO

Biggest swing: 25pp · 3rd Quarter · 7:11

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	33	30	10-19	3-5	7-7	+10	8	8
J. LaRaviaF · #12	35	5	2-4	0-2	1-2	0	5	0
D. AytonC · #5	32	18	9-16	—	—	+13	11	3
M. SmartG · #36	37	13	5-10	3-7	—	+14	6	4
L. DoncicG · #77	37	30	11-22	3-10	5-9	+2	2	10
Bench
J. VanderbiltF · #2	29	7	3-4	0-1	1-2	+3	8	4
D. KnechtF · #4	11	6	2-5	2-4	—	+5	0	0
J. HayesC · #11	16	2	1-2	—	0-1	-5	3	0
N. Smith Jr.G · #20	10	0	0-3	0-2	—	-2	1	1
Team		111	43-85	11-31	14-21		44	30
DNP: M. Kleber, G. Vincent, B. James

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	35	3	1-9	1-6	—	+2	3	0
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	33	15	7-13	—	1-5	-7	4	5
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	39	42	14-26	6-17	8-9	-8	5	3
D. QueenC · #22	32	10	5-10	0-1	—	-4	13	8
J. FearsG · #0	20	9	4-13	1-6	—	-7	4	2
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	10	6	2-3	0-1	2-2	-1	2	0
Y. MissiC · #21	16	8	3-4	—	2-2	-4	6	2
J. AlvaradoG · #15	23	5	2-6	1-5	—	+7	4	6
J. PooleG · #3	18	0	0-4	0-3	—	-8	1	1
M. PeavyG · #14	14	5	2-3	1-1	—	-10	2	1
Team		103	40-91	10-40	13-18		44	28
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Hawkins

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAL

Away

Stat

Home

43-85

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-91

FG %

11-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-40

14-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAL lead series 3-0

Nov 15

LAL118@

NO104

Dec 1

NO121@

LAL133

Jan 7

LAL111@

NO103today

Mar 4

NO101@

LAL110

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

245.5

High-scoring · +19.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAL-22569%

NO+18535%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -5.5↗SpreadBet LAL -5.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

245.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat NO 111-103. L. James paced them with 30 PTS, 8 REB, 8 AST. LAL outscored the other side 32-17 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NO vs LAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LALstarters 86% of pts

Starters(5)

96 PTS · 32 REB · 25 AST

GS 85

Bench(4)

15 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST

GS 12

NOstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 29 REB · 18 AST

GS 57

Bench(5)

24 PTS · 15 REB · 10 AST

GS 21

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAL3rd Quarter · 7:11 · 65-64

+25pp→ 65% WP

Jose Alvarado · enters the game for Jeremiah Fears

NO4th Quarter · 8:18 · 91-90

+13pp→ 52% WP

Dalton Knecht · shooting foul

LAL4th Quarter · 6:58 · 93-90

+14pp→ 70% WP

Derik Queen · misses 22-foot three point jumper

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAL	29	22	28	32	111
NO	25	29	32	17	103

Period scoring

LAL won 2 · NO won 2

Doncic 11

Fears 7

James 8

III 11

Ayton 8

III 20

James 10

III 8

LAL

Shooting comparison

LAL

51%

43-85

44%

40-91

35%

11-31

3PT

25%

10-40

67%

14-21

72%

13-18

Play-by-play · 476 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 111·NO 103
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 111·NO 103
Q4·4.3
Derik Queen offensive rebound
LAL 111·NO 103
Q4·4.3
Trey Murphy III misses 26-foot three point jumper
LAL 111·NO 103
Q4·10.1
Jake LaRavia makes 4-foot running dunk (Marcus Smart assists)
·
LAL 111·NO 103
−0.9pp
Q4·17.6
Trey Murphy III makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
LAL 109·NO 103
+0.8pp
Q4·23.2
Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 109·NO 100
Q4·23.2
Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 108·NO 100
−0.6pp
Q4·23.2
Micah Peavy personal foul
LAL 107·NO 100
−0.5pp
Q4·24.0
Deandre Ayton vs. Trey Murphy III (Jake LaRavia gains possession)
· ·
LAL 107·NO 100
Q4·27.0
Lakers defensive team rebound
LAL 107·NO 100
Q4·27.0
Trey Murphy III misses 25-foot three point jumper
LAL 107·NO 100
+0.9pp
Q4·27.0
(00:27) [Lakers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Lakers] retain their timeoutBIG MOMENT
LAL 107·NO 100
−6pp
Q4·27.0
Lakers Full timeout
LAL 107·NO 100
+4pp
Q4·33.0
Trey Murphy III defensive rebound
LAL 107·NO 100
Q4·35.0
Luka Doncic misses free throw 2 of 2
LAL 107·NO 100
+2pp
Q4·35.0
Lakers offensive team rebound
LAL 107·NO 100
Q4·35.0
Luka Doncic misses free throw 1 of 2
LAL 107·NO 100
Q4·35.0
Trey Murphy III personal foul
LAL 107·NO 100
Q4·37.0
Micah Peavy personal foul
LAL 107·NO 100
−1pp
Q4·44.6
Trey Murphy III makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 107·NO 100
−2pp
Q4·44.6
Micah Peavy enters the game for Jose Alvarado
·
LAL 107·NO 99
Q4·44.6
Trey Murphy III makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 107·NO 99
Q4·44.6
Marcus Smart shooting foul
LAL 107·NO 98
+2pp
Q4·50.5
Derik Queen defensive rebound
LAL 107·NO 98
Q4·53.9
Luka Doncic misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
LAL 107·NO 98
−0.6pp
Q4·1:15
Pelicans delay of game violation
LAL 107·NO 98
+0.8pp
Q4·1:15
Derik Queen makes driving layup (Trey Murphy III assists)
·
LAL 107·NO 98
Q4·1:24
LeBron James makes 1-foot reverse layup (Luka Doncic assists)
· ·
LAL 107·NO 96
Q4·1:30
Derik Queen lost ball turnover (Deandre Ayton steals)
·
LAL 105·NO 96
−1pp

Betting line

LAL -5.5·O/U 245.5·LAL -225/NO +185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers went into New Orleans Pelicans and beat them, 111–103.

LAL -5.5 cashed (won by 8). Total stayed UNDER 245.5 by 31.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
LeBron JamesLAL · F
TOUCHES78.997
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NO vs LAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Austin ReavesLAL
21.0± 6.8high
Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high

Rebounds

Walker KesslerLAL
10.7± 2.2low
Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
Luka DoncicLAL
7.1± 2.1high

Assists

Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Austin ReavesLAL
5.4± 2.6high

Blocks

Walker KesslerLAL
1.8± 2.5low
Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Derik QueenNO
1.0± 0.9high

Steals

Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Collin SextonLAL
1.6± 1.3high
Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAL

league avg

57.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

49.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.6%

114.8

PPG

114.9

115.5

25.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

14.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR