NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8WSH

ORL

20-17

112120

WSH

10-25

NBATue, Jan 6FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasORL -7.5

ORL · top performer

Jase Richardson

G · #11

15.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WSH · top performer

Alex Sarr

C · #20

23.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowORL ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 9pp · 4th Quarter · 6:09

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	25	14	5-10	1-3	3-5	-22	4	4
T. da SilvaF · #23	22	13	5-9	3-4	—	-27	1	1
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	20	2	1-6	0-3	—	-19	7	3
D. BaneG · #3	24	15	5-8	1-2	4-6	-12	2	3
A. BlackG · #0	21	6	3-10	0-5	—	-19	5	4
Bench
J. IsaacF · #1	12	9	4-6	—	1-1	+12	8	0
J. CainF · #8	2	0	—	—	—	-5	0	0
N. PendaF · #93	27	10	4-7	1-3	1-4	+8	4	2
G. BitadzeC · #35	20	10	5-7	—	—	-7	5	0
T. JonesG · #2	28	3	1-7	1-6	—	+11	3	5
J. HowardG · #13	16	10	2-10	2-3	4-5	+23	6	3
J. RichardsonG · #11	26	20	7-12	3-4	3-3	+17	3	3
Team		112	42-92	12-33	16-24		48	28

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. MiddletonF · #22	23	11	2-10	1-5	6-6	+9	7	3
A. SarrC · #20	31	23	7-14	2-5	7-7	+23	7	2
C. McCollumG · #3	38	27	11-19	3-7	2-2	+15	6	5
B. CoulibalyG · #0	34	14	4-8	1-3	5-6	+23	8	3
T. JohnsonG · #12	22	6	2-7	0-4	2-2	+16	2	5
Bench
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	17	12	2-6	—	8-8	-15	3	0
J. ChampagnieF · #9	22	17	6-7	4-5	1-2	+10	3	3
M. BranhamG · #8	3	0	—	—	—	-8	1	0
B. CarringtonG · #7	31	6	3-9	0-4	—	-9	5	4
W. RileyG · #27	12	4	2-5	0-1	—	-11	2	0
AJ JohnsonG · #4	6	0	0-1	—	—	-13	1	0
Team		120	39-86	11-34	31-33		45	25
DNP: A. Gill, T. Vukcevic

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ORL

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

42-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-86

FG %

12-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-34

16-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

31-33

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 1

ORL125@

WSH94

Jan 7

ORL112@

WSH120today

Mar 4

WSH109@

ORL126

Mar 12

WSH131@

ORL136

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ORL -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

235.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ORL-29074%

WSH+23530%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ORL -7.5↗SpreadBet ORL -7.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

235.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat ORL 120-112. A. Sarr led with 23 PTS, 7 REB, 2 AST. WSH outscored the other side 32-21 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

WSH vs ORL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ORLstarters 45% of pts

Starters(5)

50 PTS · 19 REB · 15 AST

GS 26

Bench(7)

62 PTS · 29 REB · 13 AST

GS 57

WSHstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 30 REB · 18 AST

GS 74

Bench(6)

39 PTS · 15 REB · 7 AST

GS 31

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

WSH2nd Quarter · 11:42 · 29-33

+7pp→ 41% WP

Justin Champagnie · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tre Johnson assists)

ORL4th Quarter · 10:04 · 95-103

+8pp→ 23% WP

Marvin Bagley III · shooting foul

ORL4th Quarter · 6:09 · 103-107

+9pp→ 24% WP

Jase Richardson · makes 24-foot running jump shot (Tyus Jones assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ORL	29	21	37	25	112
WSH	30	32	39	19	120

Period scoring

ORL won 1 · WSH won 3

Tristan 9

Sarr 9

Banchero 8

McCollum 9

Richardson 8

III 11

Howard 7

McCollum 10

ORL

WSH

Shooting comparison

ORL

WSH

46%

42-92

45%

39-86

36%

12-33

3PT

32%

11-34

67%

16-24

94%

31-33

Play-by-play · 495 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 112·WSH 120
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ORL 112·WSH 120
Q4·14.0
Jonathan Isaac makes layup (Jase Richardson assists)
·
ORL 112·WSH 120
Q4·18.1
Magic offensive team rebound
ORL 110·WSH 120
Q4·18.1
Bub Carrington blocks Jett Howard 's 5-foot driving layup
·
ORL 110·WSH 120
Q4·22.3
Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 110·WSH 120
Q4·22.3
Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 110·WSH 119
Q4·22.3
Jett Howard personal foul
ORL 110·WSH 118
Q4·29.2
Jett Howard makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jase Richardson assists)
·
ORL 110·WSH 118
Q4·34.4
Noah Penda defensive rebound
ORL 107·WSH 118
Q4·36.6
Bilal Coulibaly misses free throw 2 of 2
ORL 107·WSH 118
Q4·36.6
Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 107·WSH 118
Q4·36.6
Jett Howard personal foul
ORL 107·WSH 117
Q4·40.2
Bilal Coulibaly offensive rebound
ORL 107·WSH 117
Q4·43.8
Alex Sarr misses 25-foot three point jumper
ORL 107·WSH 117
Q4·1:04
Bilal Coulibaly defensive rebound
ORL 107·WSH 117
Q4·1:07
Tyus Jones misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
ORL 107·WSH 117
+2pp
Q4·1:12
Bilal Coulibaly personal foul
ORL 107·WSH 117
−2pp
Q4·1:12
Jase Richardson defensive rebound
ORL 107·WSH 117
Q4·1:13
Bub Carrington misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
ORL 107·WSH 117
Q4·1:33
Bilal Coulibaly defensive rebound
ORL 107·WSH 117
Q4·1:36
Jonathan Isaac misses 11-foot turnaround jump shot
ORL 107·WSH 117
+0.6pp
Q4·1:52
CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)
·
ORL 107·WSH 117
+2pp
Q4·2:09
Jase Richardson makes 2-foot dunk
ORL 107·WSH 114
−1pp
Q4·2:10
Jase Richardson offensive rebound
ORL 105·WSH 114
−0.7pp
Q4·2:14
Tyus Jones misses 26-foot three point jumper
ORL 105·WSH 114
+0.8pp
Q4·2:17
Jonathan Isaac defensive rebound
ORL 105·WSH 114
Q4·2:19
Jonathan Isaac blocks CJ McCollum 's 3-foot layup
·
ORL 105·WSH 114
−0.5pp
Q4·2:36
Bilal Coulibaly defensive rebound
ORL 105·WSH 114
Q4·2:38
Jett Howard misses driving layup
ORL 105·WSH 114
+1pp

Betting line

ORL -7.5·O/U 235.5·ORL -290/WSH +235

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ashington Wizards held off Orlando Magic, 120–112.

WSH +7.5 cashed (ORL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 235.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Alex SarrWSH · C
CONT9.498
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Anthony BlackORL · G
DEFL3.797
Bilal CoulibalyWSH · G
DEFL3.194

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ORL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs ORL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high
Desmond BaneORL
18.8± 7.4high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low
Deandre AytonWSH
9.1± 4.7high

Assists

Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Bub CarringtonWSH
5.1± 1.9high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high
Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high
Desmond BaneORL
1.5± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ORL

league avg

WSH

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.5%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

46.3%

114.2

PPG

◀

114.9

112.9

26.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

13.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR