NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3DEN

DEN

54-28

106103

TOR

46-36

NBAWed, Dec 31FinalSeriesDEN leads series 1-0VegasTOR -7.5

DEN · top performer

Jonas Valanciunas

C · #17

21.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Scottie Barnes

F · #4

25.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDEN ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 19pp · 4th Quarter · 20.2

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. JonesF · #21	38	6	0-3	0-3	6-6	-1	7	2
J. ValanciunasC · #17	23	17	5-6	—	7-8	+2	9	4
J. MurrayG · #27	38	21	6-18	2-5	7-7	+8	7	6
J. PickettG · #24	28	10	4-11	2-7	—	-9	1	1
P. WatsonG · #8	36	24	9-19	1-6	5-7	+6	8	0
Bench
D. Holmes IIF · #14	22	11	4-5	2-3	1-2	-2	3	1
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	30	9	3-13	3-9	—	+7	5	1
B. BrownG · #11	25	8	3-5	0-1	2-4	+4	7	2
Team		106	34-80	10-34	28-34		47	17
DNP: H. Tyson, Z. Nnaji, J. Strawther, C. Jones

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	36	30	11-21	5-7	3-4	-4	8	1
R. BarrettF · #9	24	17	7-13	1-4	2-3	+9	6	3
S. BarnesF · #4	33	20	7-14	2-4	4-4	+6	14	10
I. QuickleyG · #5	34	22	5-16	4-11	8-10	+1	3	4
O. AgbajiG · #30	11	2	1-2	0-1	—	-5	2	1
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	12	0	0-5	0-3	—	-12	4	1
J. BattleF · #77	6	2	1-2	—	—	+5	1	0
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	26	6	3-11	0-4	—	+12	9	2
J. SheadG · #23	21	2	1-8	0-4	—	-6	0	5
J. WalterG · #14	23	2	1-6	0-5	—	-14	3	0
G. DickG · #1	12	0	0-2	0-2	—	-7	0	0
Team		103	37-100	12-45	17-21		50	27
DNP: J. Mogbo, M. Bamba, G. Temple

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DEN

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

34-80

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-100

FG %

10-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-45

28-34

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DEN leads series 1-0

Jan 1

DEN106@

TOR103today

Mar 21

TOR115@

DEN121

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DEN+22031%

TOR-27073%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -7.5↗SpreadBet TOR -7.5↗

Line movement · 4 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DEN beat TOR 106-103. J. Valanciunas led with 17 PTS, 9 REB, 4 AST. DEN outscored the other side 32-23 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs DEN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DENstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 32 REB · 13 AST

GS 65

Bench(3)

28 PTS · 15 REB · 4 AST

GS 17

TORstarters 88% of pts

Starters(5)

91 PTS · 33 REB · 19 AST

GS 76

Bench(6)

12 PTS · 17 REB · 8 AST

GS 2

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DEN4th Quarter · 1:06 · 102-99

+17pp→ 83% WP

Immanuel Quickley · misses free throw 2 of 2

TOR4th Quarter · 20.2 · 102-99

+19pp→ 39% WP

Spencer Jones · loose ball foul

DEN4th Quarter · 19.5 · 102-101

+16pp→ 85% WP

Ja'Kobe Walter · personal foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DEN	32	31	22	21	106
TOR	23	31	25	24	103

Period scoring

DEN won 1 · TOR won 2

Valanciunas 8

Barnes 12

Watson 14

Quickley 12

Valanciunas 7

Ingram 10

Murray 6

Quickley 7

DEN

TOR

Shooting comparison

DEN

TOR

43%

34-80

37%

37-100

29%

10-34

3PT

27%

12-45

82%

28-34

81%

17-21

Play-by-play · 507 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DEN 106·TOR 103
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DEN 106·TOR 103
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Nuggets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
DEN 106·TOR 103
−2pp
Q4·1.5
Scottie Barnes defensive rebound
DEN 106·TOR 103
−2pp
Q4·2.7
Bruce Brown misses free throw 2 of 2
DEN 106·TOR 103
+2pp
Q4·2.7
Nuggets offensive team rebound
DEN 106·TOR 103
+0.9pp
Q4·2.7
Bruce Brown misses free throw 1 of 2
DEN 106·TOR 103
+0.5pp
Q4·2.7
Immanuel Quickley personal foul
DEN 106·TOR 103
−1pp
Q4·2.7
Bruce Brown defensive rebound
DEN 106·TOR 103
−3pp
Q4·5.1
RJ Barrett misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
DEN 106·TOR 103
−13pp
Q4·13.7
Immanuel Quickley enters the game for Ja'Kobe Walter
·
DEN 106·TOR 103
Q4·13.7
Jamison Battle enters the game for Jamal Shead
·
DEN 106·TOR 103
Q4·13.7
Raptors Full timeout
DEN 106·TOR 103
Q4·13.7
Jamal Murray makes layup (Bruce Brown assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DEN 106·TOR 103
−12pp
Q4·14.9
Ja'Kobe Walter enters the game for Jamison Battle
·
DEN 104·TOR 103
Q4·14.9
Jamal Shead enters the game for Immanuel Quickley
·
DEN 104·TOR 103
Q4·14.9
Nuggets Full timeout
DEN 104·TOR 103
Q4·14.9
Brandon Ingram makes driving dunkBIG MOMENT
DEN 104·TOR 103
+10pp
Q4·19.5
Jamison Battle enters the game for Collin Murray-Boyles
· ·
DEN 104·TOR 101
Q4·19.5
Raptors Full timeout
DEN 104·TOR 101
Q4·19.5
Spencer Jones makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
·
DEN 104·TOR 101
+7pp
Q4·19.5
Collin Murray-Boyles enters the game for Jamal Shead
· ·
DEN 103·TOR 101
Q4·19.5
Brandon Ingram enters the game for Ja'Kobe Walter
·
DEN 103·TOR 101
Q4·19.5
Spencer Jones makes free throw 1 of 2
·
DEN 103·TOR 101
−2pp
Q4·19.5
Ja'Kobe Walter personal foulBIG MOMENT
DEN 102·TOR 101
−16pp
Q4·20.2
Bruce Brown enters the game for DaRon Holmes II
·
DEN 102·TOR 101
Q4·20.2
Nuggets Full timeout
DEN 102·TOR 101
Q4·20.2
Immanuel Quickley makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DEN 102·TOR 101
−12pp
Q4·20.2
Ja'Kobe Walter enters the game for Collin Murray-Boyles
· ·
DEN 102·TOR 100
Q4·20.2
Jamal Shead enters the game for Brandon Ingram
·
DEN 102·TOR 100

Betting line

TOR -7.5·O/U 229.5·DEN +220/TOR -270

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

enver Nuggets went into Toronto Raptors and beat them, 106–103. Decided by 3.

DEN +7.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 229.5 by 20.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297
Collin Murray-BoylesTOR · F
DEFL3.195
Immanuel QuickleyTOR · G
TOUCHES7294

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DEN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DEN

league avg

TOR

57.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.5%

49.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

48.1%

121.1

PPG

◀

114.9

114.3

28.7

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.2

12.1

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR