New York Mets vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 22, 2026

FINAL+1MIA

NYM

12-13-2

MIA

11-13-3

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

4,492 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.3medium
Eury PerezMIA
5.5± 3.3low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.3± 0.8high
Carson BengeNYM
1.2± 0.8high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.1± 3.3high
Otto LopezMIA
2.0± 1.6high
Juan SotoNYM
2.0± 2.6high

RBIs

Kyle StowersMIA
0.8± 1.6high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.2high
A.J. EwingNYM
0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.4± 3.0low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 3.2medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.9± 3.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

MIA

.675

OPS

.718

▶

.711

.300

OBP

.319

▶

.323

4.04

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.27

4.12

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.94

1.28

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

NYM 3 · MIA 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
MIA	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. LindorSS	.158	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. SotoLF	.150	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
B. BichetteSS	.333	2	1	1	1	0	1	0
J. Polanco1B	.310	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
L. Robert Jr.CF	.286	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. Baty3B	.333	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
M. Semien2B	.205	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. BengeRF	.366	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. RortvedtC	.167	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. Robertson2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Roselli2B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. HouckSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. AmparoSS	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. Willhoite3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. RudickLF	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. VillavicencioSS	.308	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. De OleoSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. RinconCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. MeggersC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	3	7	3	0	1	13

Player

.158

.150

.333

.310

.286

.333

.205

.366

.167

.000

.250

.000

1.000

.000

.143

.308

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. PetersonSP	5.0	5	1	1	1	4	76
L. WeaverRP	0.1	0	1	1	3	1	23
Z. PeekSP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	5
B. SimonRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	21
P. CarlsonDH	1.2	3	2	2	0	3	32
Team	8.2	9	4	4	5	10	157

Player

5.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

1.2

Team

8.2

157

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Sanoja3B	.188	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. HicksC	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. RamirezC	.083	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
O. CaissieRF	.133	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
H. HernandezLF	.273	2	0	2	0	0	1	0
G. Pauley3B	.231	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. AldermanRF	.129	4	0	0	1	0	0	3
J. BastidasSS	.194	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
A. PintarCF	.174	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
A. SalasSS	.333	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. Beshears1B	.375	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
M. McDowellOF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
S. BramwellC	.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	0
E. ValenciaCF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. MorlandoOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. GleedSS	.333	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		33	4	9	3	0	5	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AlcantaraSP	4.2	5	3	3	0	6	86
S. VasquezP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. NardiRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	18
T. ZuberRP	3.0	2	0	0	0	5	45
Team	9.0	7	3	3	1	13	151

Team

NYM

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs NYM.