Houston Astros vs New York Mets: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 21, 2026

FINAL+2HOU

HOU

11-13-3

NYM

12-12-2

Clover Park · Port St. Lucie, Florida

5,886 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
6.4± 3.1low
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.3medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.5± 2.4low

Hits

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.3± 1.0high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.1high
Carson BengeNYM
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.1± 2.5high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.9± 1.7high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.9± 2.6high

RBIs

Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 0.7high
A.J. EwingNYM
0.6± 0.9high
Mark VientosNYM
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.4± 3.0low
Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.9± 3.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

NYM

.726

OPS

◀

.718

.675

.316

OBP

◀

.319

.300

4.50

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.04

4.74

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.12

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.28

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 7 · NYM 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	7
NYM	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LoperfidoLF	.317	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. Paredes3B	.185	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SmithRF	.256	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. ColeLF	.189	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
C. Walker1B	.139	4	1	2	3	1	0	1
Y. DiazC	.143	3	2	2	0	0	1	0
C. Biggio1B	.182	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Unroe2B	.310	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
N. AllenSS	.235	3	0	2	2	0	0	0
J. WakefieldRF	.300	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. WhitakerRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. LytleOF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. Biggers2B	.083	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. GarciaC	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. PérezC	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. SaccoSS	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Nelson3B	.235	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		35	7	9	5	1	4	10

Player

.317

.185

.256

.189

.139

.143

.182

.310

.235

.300

.000

.000

.083

.143

.143

.125

.235

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BurrowsSP	5.1	7	3	3	0	2	77
R. MunozRP	0.2	2	2	2	1	0	21
K. TengRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
D. HowardRP	2.0	2	0	0	1	2	31
Team	9.0	11	5	5	2	4	141

Player

5.1

0.2

1.0

2.0

Team

9.0

141

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. LindorSS	.133	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SotoLF	.118	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. BichetteSS	.324	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. Polanco1B	.333	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
L. Robert Jr.CF	.333	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
B. Baty3B	.333	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
M. Semien2B	.222	3	1	1	3	0	0	1
M. TauchmanRF	.241	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. AlvarezC	.360	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
K. VillavicencioSS	.333	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. JuanRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Willhoite3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. RudickLF	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. RortvedtC	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. MosqueraLF	.083	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. SalgadoOF	.429	3	1	3	1	0	0	0
W. YoungSS	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	5	11	5	0	2	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. TongSP	4.1	6	3	3	0	5	79
O. GómezRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	11
D. DuarteRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	7
J. JacquesRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	21
R. LambertRP	0.1	1	4	3	2	0	28
A. RozekRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	18
D. HammerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	13
Team	9.0	9	7	6	4	10	177

Team

HOU

NYM

3 sub-models, blended.

NYM vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs HOU.