New York Mets vs Houston Astros: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 19, 2026

FINAL+4NYM

NYM

12-9-2

HOU

10-12-3

CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches · Palm Beach, Florida

4,400 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
6.4± 3.1low
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.3medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.5± 2.4low

Hits

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.3± 1.0high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.1high
Carson BengeNYM
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.1± 2.5high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.9± 1.7high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.9± 2.6high

RBIs

Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 0.7high
A.J. EwingNYM
0.7± 0.9high
Mark VientosNYM
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.1± 3.0low
Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.9± 3.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

HOU

.675

OPS

.718

▶

.726

.300

OBP

.319

▶

.316

4.04

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.50

4.12

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.74

1.28

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 6 · HOU 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	0	1	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	6
HOU	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. LindorSS	.182	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. SotoLF	.143	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. BichetteSS	.313	2	2	2	0	0	1	0
J. Polanco1B	.304	2	2	1	0	0	2	0
L. Robert Jr.CF	.333	4	1	2	2	0	0	1
B. Baty3B	.357	3	0	1	1	0	1	1
M. Semien2B	.212	1	0	0	2	0	1	1
M. Vientos1B	.036	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
F. AlvarezC	.364	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. HernándezSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. RudickLF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. SalgadoOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Schwartz1B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. VillavicencioSS	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. MosqueraLF	.091	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. YoungSS	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. AularC	.500	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
Team		31	6	7	6	0	9	10

Player

.182

.143

.313

.304

.333

.357

.212

.036

.364

.000

.167

.000

.333

.273

.091

.400

.500

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. SengaSP	4.0	3	0	0	1	4	63
L. GarciaRP	1.0	1	1	0	1	1	22
A. RozekRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	6
C. KimbrelRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	3	21
J. BanksRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	10
A. WarrenRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	18
R. LoveladyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
Team	9.0	8	2	1	2	13	157

Player

4.0

1.0

0.1

1.0

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

157

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Altuve2B	.118	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. Paredes3B	.217	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
Y. AlvarezDH	.296	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
C. CorreaSS	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SmithRF	.278	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
Z. ColeLF	.176	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Walker1B	.094	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
Y. DiazC	.080	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Whitcomb3B	.294	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. MatthewsCF	.273	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
C. PérezC	.118	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. TrammellCF	.242	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Biggers2B	.091	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Nelson3B	.188	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. LytleOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Biggio1B	.333	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. Walker2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. VazquezC	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. AllenSS	.214	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		36	2	8	2	0	2	13

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. LambertSP	3.1	3	3	3	1	1	54
S. OkertRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	16
R. WeissRP	0.2	2	3	3	4	0	42
T. McLoughlinRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. AbreuRP	1.0	1	0	0	2	3	27
B. KingRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	23
W. SanchezRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	26
Team	9.0	7	6	6	9	10	190

Team

NYM

HOU

3 sub-models, blended.

HOU vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs NYM.