Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Sep 19, 2026

PHI

45-36

PregameSat, 4:10 PM EDT

NYM

34-47

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Park factor

96 total idx

Citi Field run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Citi Field · Queens, New York

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesPHI leads series 2-1

TypeRegular Season Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.9± 3.6medium
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.3medium

Hits

Bo BichetteNYM
1.3± 1.1high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.3± 1.1high
Juan SotoNYM
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.5± 4.0high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.4± 2.3high
Bryce HarperPHI
2.3± 3.5high

RBIs

J.T. RealmutoPHI
1.0± 1.4high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.9± 2.0high
Brandon MarshPHI
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.4± 3.0low
Aaron NolaPHI
3.0± 2.0medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.9± 3.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

NYM

.704

OPS

◀

.719

.674

.302

OBP

◀

.319

.298

4.39

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.07

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.16

1.29

WHIP

1.31

1.29

9.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

9.2

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

NYM vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

3 sub-models, blended.