Recent form
6-4
WSH +0.4 vs LAD 0.0 margin
WSH brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers
WSH
WSH
67-75
PregameSat, 9:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
LAD
LAD
83-57
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketDodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Cade Cavalli
SP · #24
12-5
W-L
3.12
ERA
1.20
WHIP
177
K
152.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMIA-4.0 IP0 ER8 K
vsCOLW(12-5)6.0 IP2 ER7 K
@TEXW(11-5)6.0 IP0 ER11 K
Home starter
Tyler Glasnow
SP · #31
4-0
W-L
2.79
ERA
0.81
WHIP
62
K
51.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@DETW(4-0)7.0 IP1 ER6 K
@ATL-5.0 IP3 ER7 K
@HOU-1.0 IP1 ER2 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob39% / 61%
LeanHome · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesLAD lead series 3-0
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
LAD vs WSH.
LAD is 4-6 recently; WSH is 6-4.
61.4%
model · LAD win prob
Recent form
- LAD4–6+0.0
- WSH6–4+0.4
Situational
- LAD2d rest
- WSH3d rest
- -1.0d differential
WSH has 1 more rest day. LAD has 0 straight road games; WSH has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Tarik SkubalLAD7.6strikeouts · ±2.4
Tarik Skubal · 7.6 K · last-10 7.8 vs season 7.3.
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD6.8strikeouts · ±2.1
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 6.8 K · last-10 7.1 vs season 6.4.
- Cade CavalliWSH6.8strikeouts · ±2.7
Cade Cavalli · 6.8 K · last-10 7.2 vs season 6.1.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.5%
ensemble · LAD favored
Elo Static
63.6%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.0%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.7%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.17 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LAD vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
133
projections · 115 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Tarik SkubalLAD7.6± 2.4high
- Blake SnellLAD7.2± 3.5low
- Tyler GlasnowLAD6.9± 3.0low
Hits
- Freddie FreemanLAD1.2± 0.8high
- Daylen LileWSH1.2± 1.3high
- Mookie BettsLAD1.1± 0.6high
Total bases
- Daylen LileWSH2.6± 3.3high
- Mookie BettsLAD1.9± 1.8high
- Freddie FreemanLAD1.8± 1.6high
RBIs
- Daylen LileWSH1.1± 1.8high
- Brady HouseWSH0.8± 1.3high
- Dalton RushingLAD0.6± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Jackson KentWSH3.0± 2.2low
- Jake IrvinWSH3.0± 2.1medium
- Justin WrobleskiLAD2.7± 2.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
WSH
league avg
LAD
.754
OPS
.719
.757
.325
OBP
.319
▶.336
5.18
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.91
4.69
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.70
1.39
WHIP
1.31
▶1.16
7.9
K / 9
8.5
▶9.3
The One modelEdge
Sat, Sep 5WSH
Nationals
78-82
vs61.4%LAD
LAD★
Dodgers
98-71
WSH 38.6%win prob61.4% LAD
LAD 1544 · WSH 1471Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- CubsMarlins9/5 - 4:10 PM EDT
- GiantsMets9/5 - 4:10 PM EDT
- BravesPhillies9/5 - 6:05 PM EDT
- TigersGuardians9/5 - 6:10 PM EDT
- AngelsPirates9/5 - 6:40 PM EDT
- BrewersReds9/5 - 6:40 PM EDT
- Red SoxOrioles9/5 - 7:05 PM EDT
- RaysRangers9/5 - 7:05 PM EDT
- TwinsWhite Sox9/5 - 7:10 PM EDT
- Blue JaysRoyals9/5 - 7:10 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksAstros9/5 - 7:15 PM EDT
- YankeesPadres9/5 - 7:15 PM EDT
- CardinalsRockies9/5 - 8:10 PM EDT
- AthleticsMariners9/5 - 9:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
