Park factor
96 total idx
LoanDepot Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins
CHC
CHC
79-62
PregameSat, 4:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
MIA
MIA
71-70
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketloanDepot park · Miami, Florida
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Clay Holmes
SP · #25
6-6
W-L
2.09
ERA
1.07
WHIP
63
K
81.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMILW(6-6)6.0 IP0 ER8 K
@ARI-7.0 IP0 ER5 K
vsCHWL(5-6)5.1 IP1 ER1 K
Home starter
Ryan Gusto
SP · #65
1-3
W-L
3.86
ERA
1.33
WHIP
57
K
67.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@WSH-4.1 IP1 ER4 K
vsBOSW(1-3)5.2 IP0 ER2 K
vsWSH-4.0 IP0 ER2 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob54% / 46%
LeanAway · 4pp
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 9/4
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
MIA vs CHC.
MIA is 4-6 recently; CHC is 4-6.
45.9%
model · MIA win prob
Recent form
- MIA4–6-0.7
- CHC4–6+1.8
Situational
- MIA2d rest
- CHC2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. MIA has 7 straight road games; CHC has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.3pp
Players to watch
- Eury PerezMIA5.7strikeouts · ±2.3
Eury Perez · 5.7 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.8.
- Kevin GausmanCHC5.6strikeouts · ±2.2
Kevin Gausman · 5.6 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.6.
- Shota ImanagaCHC5.6strikeouts · ±2.0
Shota Imanaga · 5.6 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.5.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.2%
ensemble · CHC favored
Elo Static
46.3%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.2%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.4%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.95 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIA vs CHC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
132
projections · 112 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Eury PerezMIA5.7± 2.3high
- Kevin GausmanCHC5.6± 2.2high
- Shota ImanagaCHC5.6± 2.0high
Hits
- Seiya SuzukiCHC1.3± 1.4high
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC1.2± 1.3high
- Tyrone TaylorCHC1.2± 1.4high
Total bases
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC2.8± 4.3high
- Alex BregmanCHC2.5± 3.9high
- Seiya SuzukiCHC2.2± 2.5high
RBIs
- Alex BregmanCHC1.1± 1.7high
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC0.9± 2.0high
- Carson KellyCHC0.8± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Kevin GausmanCHC3.0± 1.8high
- Matthew BoydCHC2.6± 2.4medium
- David PetersonCHC2.2± 1.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CHC
league avg
MIA
.770
OPS
◀
.719
.725
.339
OBP
◀
.319
.326
5.34
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.36
4.18
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.96
1.26
WHIP
1.31
1.25
7.8
K / 9
8.5
▶8.3
The One modelTossup
Sat, Sep 5CHC★
Cubs
92-73
vs54.0%CHC
MIA
Marlins
82-80
CHC 54.0%win prob46.0% MIA
CHC 1551 · MIA 1502Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
