Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Sep 5, 2026

BOS

76-65

PregameSat, 7:05 PM EDTMLB.TV

BAL

69-72

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

97 total idx

Oriole Park at Camden Yards run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

6-4

BAL +1.4 vs BOS -2.3 margin

BAL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Sonny Gray

SP · #54

16-4

W-L

2.82

ERA

1.18

WHIP

128

143.2

Last 3 starts

@MIAL(16-4)5.0 IP2 ER5 K

vsSFW(16-3)6.0 IP4 ER6 K

@PITW(15-3)7.0 IP0 ER7 K

Home starter

Chris Bassitt

SP · #40

6-4

W-L

4.97

ERA

1.58

WHIP

79.2

Last 3 starts

@ATHW(6-4)5.2 IP5 ER4 K

@STLW(5-4)6.2 IP1 ER5 K

vsNYY-5.2 IP3 ER6 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob63% / 37%

LeanAway · 13pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesBOS leads series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Scouting report · pre-game

BAL vs BOS.

BAL has dropped 3 straight; BOS is 4-6 over its last 10.

37.4%

model · BAL win prob

Recent form

BAL6–4+1.4
BOS4–6-2.3

Situational

BAL2d rest
BOS2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. BAL has 0 straight road games; BOS has 1.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.3pp

Players to watch

Payton TolleBOS
6.9strikeouts · ±2.7
Payton Tolle · 6.9 K · last-10 7.3 vs season 6.4.
Trevor RogersBAL
6.1strikeouts · ±2.2
Trevor Rogers · 6.1 K · last-10 6.7 vs season 5.1.
Shane BazBAL
5.2strikeouts · ±3.1
Shane Baz · 5.2 K · last-10 5.2 vs season 5.1.

Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1

BAL is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-09-03BOS @ BAL6–5

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

35.4%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
42.2%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
39.6%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
41.8%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 123 high confidence

Strikeouts

Payton TolleBOS
6.9± 2.7high
Trevor RogersBAL
6.1± 2.2high
Shane BazBAL
5.2± 3.1high

Hits

Roman AnthonyBOS
1.3± 1.1high
Trevor StoryBOS
1.1± 0.8high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Mickey GasperBOS
2.2± 2.4high
Roman AnthonyBOS
2.0± 2.1high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
0.7± 1.1high
Coby MayoBAL
0.7± 1.2high
Leody TaverasBAL
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Chris BassittBAL
2.7± 1.6medium
Kyle BradishBAL
2.6± 1.9high
Trevor RogersBAL
2.6± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

BAL

.731

OPS

◀

.719

.713

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.317

4.49

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.54

3.67

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.18

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.34

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

The One modelEdge

Sat, Sep 5

BOS★

Red Sox

86-79

vs62.6%BOS

BAL

Orioles

73-94

BOS 62.6%win prob37.4% BAL

BOS 1555 · BAL 1477Box score→

Team pages

Boston Red SoxBaltimore Orioles

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles

The matchup, end-to-end.

BAL vs BOS.

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league