MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7NYM

ATL

46-25

NYM

32-39

Citi Field · Queens, New York

40,106 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYM spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

NYM no-vig %

51.7%

open 51.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.4%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
40.5%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
39.6%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
41.2%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.65

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.9pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

ATL

★ best

-107DraftKings

edge +10.9pp · implied 48.6%

NYM

no live price

Book	ATL	NYM	Best edge
DraftKings	-107★	-121	+10.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYM vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.1low
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.1± 2.7low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
5.5± 3.2low

Hits

Matt OlsonATL
1.2± 0.9high
Michael Harris IIATL
1.2± 0.9high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.4± 2.7high
Bo BichetteNYM
2.3± 2.6high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.9± 2.1high

RBIs

Bo BichetteNYM
0.9± 2.0high
Matt OlsonATL
0.7± 1.0high
Mauricio DubonATL
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Nolan McLeanNYM
2.7± 2.9low
David PetersonNYM
2.6± 3.7low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

NYM

.744

OPS

◀

.716

.666

.320

OBP

◀

.319

.295

5.06

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.06

3.31

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.85

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.27

8.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

ATL 1 · NYM 8 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
NYM	4	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. Harris IICF	.303	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
M. DubonSS	.259	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Olson1B	.270	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
O. Albies2B	.279	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SmithDH	.282	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
A. Riley3B	.203	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. WhiteCF	.238	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. YastrzemskiLF	.232	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. LeonC	.095	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
R. Tellez1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MateoSS	.287	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	1	4	1	0	3	4

Player

AVG

RBI

.303

.259

.270

.279

.282

.203

.238

.232

.095

.000

.287

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. ElderSP	4.0	10	6	6	2	2	75
D. DoddRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	16
J. KarinchakRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	19
R. LopezRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	24
A. MolinaRP	1.0	3	2	1	0	2	29
Team	8.0	13	8	7	7	8	163

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

163

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. BengeRF	.257	4	1	2	0	0	1	1
B. Bichette3B	.239	5	2	2	0	0	0	2
J. SotoLF	.293	3	1	2	2	0	2	0
J. Young1B	.263	5	1	1	1	0	0	1
A.J. EwingCF	.267	5	2	3	2	1	0	1
M. Semien2B	.218	5	1	1	1	1	0	2
B. Baty3B	.231	2	0	2	1	0	2	0
M. MelendezDH	.204	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
L. TorrensC	.218	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	8	13	7	2	7	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
F. PeraltaSP	5.0	4	1	1	1	2	90
C. PerezRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	20
D. DuarteRP	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	15
A.J. MinterRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	4
H. BrazobanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
Team	9.0	4	1	1	3	4	140

Team

ATL

NYM

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

NYM vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

NYM vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.