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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2ARI
SF

SF

20-29

3
5
ARI

ARI

24-23

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
19,548 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

ARI no-vig %

53.1%

open 52.2% · +1.0

+2.0+1.0ARI SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL57.1%48.2%ARI NO-VIG %May 18, 5 PMMay 19, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

SF 3 · ARI 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF0300000003
ARI1000000045

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+25.6pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

SF

no live price

ARI

★ best
+180DraftKings

edge +25.6pp · implied 33.7%

BookSFARIBest edge
DraftKings-237+180★+25.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 21, 26sim 98
    236
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 96
    263
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 96
    115
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 96
    72
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 96
    186
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 95
    72
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, May 19·Final/SeriesARI wins series 3-0/VegasARI -126

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks held off San Francisco Giants, 5–3.

ARI -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Willy Adames

Willy Adames

SS

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Nolan Arenado

Nolan Arenado

3B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF20-29
3
5
ARI24-23
SF20-29·ARI24-23
SF

SF

20-29

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-55000001
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-55010000
SPRINT26.632
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-44010000
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
2-44121101
SPRINT25.716
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-33111111
SPRINT27.457
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
1-33110011
SPRINT28.175
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
0-44000001
D. SusacD. Susac★C
2-33021011
W. BrennanW. Brennan★LF
0-44000000
Team8-3535383236
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. RouppL. Roupp★SP
6.0711030
K. WinnK. WinnRP
1.0000110
E. MillerE. MillerRP
0.1000300
C. KilianC. KilianRP
1.1232010
Team8.21054451
ARI

ARI

24-23

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
1-55113100
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-33110011
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-33000010
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
2-44020000
SPRINT25.29
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
2-44120000
SPRINT26.941
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
2-44020001
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
0-33000011
AA. Del Castillo★DH
2-44021001
SPRINT26.326
R. WaldschmidtR. Waldschmidt★CF
0-22100011
Team10-32325104145
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. NelsonR. Nelson★SP
7.0833232
K. GinkelK. GinkelRP
1.0000130
J. LoaisigaJ. LoaisigaRP
1.0000000
Team9.0833362

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • K. Winn
    11 pitches·64% CSW
    • FS
      45%·90.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      27%·97.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      18%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·88.7 mph·0% whiff

ARI

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

10

3

Runs

5

2

Errors

0

Current series

ARI wins series 3-0

May 19SFSF2@ARIARI12
May 20SFSF3@ARIARI5today
May 20SFSF3@ARIARI6

Season series

ARI leads series 2-0

May 19SFSF2@ARIARI12
May 20SFSF3@ARIARI5today
May 20SFSF3@ARIARI6
May 25ARIARI6@SFSF2
May 27ARIARI7@SFSF5
May 27ARIARI3@SFSF2
Jun 30SFSF@ARIARIupcoming
Jul 1SFSF@ARIARIupcoming
Jul 2SFSF@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 28ARIARI@SFSFupcoming
Aug 29ARIARI@SFSFupcoming
Aug 30ARIARI@SFSFupcoming
Aug 30ARIARI@SFSFupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ARI -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SFSF+10549%
ARIARI-12656%

↘5· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 83pp · Bottom 9th Inning

SFSF
W. Adames

W. Adames

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

L. Roupp

L. Roupp

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 7 H

ARIARI
K. Marte

K. Marte

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.000 OPS

R. Nelson

R. Nelson

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ARI beat SF 5-3. Marte's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (83pp).

Win probability

ARI vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 8th Inning · 3-1
+27pp→ 87% WP

Adames · walked.

SFTop 9th Inning · 3-1
+31pp→ 92% WP

Brennan · lined out to center.

ARIBottom 9th Inning · 3-5
+83pp→ 100% WP

Marte · homered to left (391 feet), Fernandez scored and Waldschmidt scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF0300000003
ARI1000000045

Period scoring

SF won 1 · ARI won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Carroll 1

3
0

Inn 2

Devers 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
4

Inn 9

Marte 3

SF
ARI

Play-by-play · 543 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    SF 3·ARI 5

  2. B9

    Marte homered to left (391 feet), Fernandez scored and Waldschmidt scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 5

    +83pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 5

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 2

  5. B9

    Matt Gage pitches to Ketel Marte

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 5

  6. B9

    Gage relieved Kilian

    ·

    SF 3·ARI 2

  7. B9

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 2

  8. B9

    Giants challenged (catcher interference), call on the field was upheld: Ryan Waldschmidt reaches on catcher interference by Daniel Susac. Jose Fernandez to 2nd. Ryan Waldschmidt to 1st.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 2

    +8pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 2

  11. B9

    Caleb Kilian pitches to Ryan Waldschmidt

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 2

  12. B9

    Fernandez ran for Del Castillo

    ·

    SF 3·ARI 2

  13. B9

    ·

    SF 3·ARI 2

  14. B9

    Del Castillo singled to center, Vargas scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 2

    +5pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 1

  17. B9

    Vargas to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SF 3·ARI 1

  18. B9

    Vargas to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SF 3·ARI 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 1

  22. B9

    Caleb Kilian pitches to Adrian Del Castillo

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 2

  23. B9

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 1

  24. B9

    Moreno struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 1

    −6pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 3·ARI 1

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

3

Runs

5

8

Hits

10

2

Errors

0

16

TB

17

2

HR

1

3

BB

4

6

K

5

17

LOB

16

Betting line

ARI -1.5·O/U 8.5·SF +105/ARI -126

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.95

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

53.1%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Player projections

ARI vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low
  • Logan WebbSF
    5.3± 1.7low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.8± 1.0high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Tommy TroyARI
    1.3± 0.7low

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.1± 1.9high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.6± 2.9high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.4± 2.6low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.6%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    58.8%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.2%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.0%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.80 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872