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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+10ARI
SF

SF

20-28

2
12
ARI

ARI

23-23

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
20,072 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ARI no-vig %

56.3%

open 55.1% · +1.2

-1.0-2.0ARI SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL60.3%51.1%ARI NO-VIG %MODEL 58.8%May 17, 6 PMMay 18, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

SF 2 · ARI 12 (by 10)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF0110000002
ARI4120500012

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 13, 26sim 98
    208
    17(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 95
    2010
    17(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 94
    75
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 93
    236
    24(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 93
    263
    17(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 93
    201
    17(H)15
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+28.6pp

best edge · SF · DraftKings

SF

★ best
+1100DraftKings

edge +28.6pp · implied 12.6%

ARI

no live price

BookSFARIBest edge
DraftKings+1100★-137+28.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.20

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-143

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

MLB·Mon, May 18·Final/SeriesARI wins series 3-0/VegasARI -137

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks held off San Francisco Giants, 12–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ARI -1.5 cashed (won by 10). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Willy Adames

Willy Adames

SS

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Ryan Waldschmidt

Ryan Waldschmidt

CF

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF20-28
2
12
ARI23-23
SF20-28·ARI23-23
SF

SF

20-28

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
1-22010000
SPRINT27.148
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
0-22001000
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-44010001
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
0-44000001
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-11111110
SPRINT27.457
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-44000001
B. EldridgeB. Eldridge★DH
2-44020001
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
2-44120000
SPRINT27.662
E. HaaseE. Haase★C
0-33000002
W. BrennanW. BrennanLF
1-22010000
D. GilbertD. GilbertCF
0-11000001
J. RodríguezJ. RodríguezC
0-22000000
Team8-3333282117
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. RayR. Ray★SP
4.111109212
J. BrubakerJ. BrubakerRP
1.2321010
R. BoruckiR. BoruckiRP
2.0200010
Team8.0161210232
ARI

ARI

23-23

12
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
2-44222000
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
2-44120000
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-44110010
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
1-44114101
SPRINT25.29
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
2-55220000
SPRINT26.941
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
2-55222100
SPRINT26.428
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
1-33110001
T. TawaT. Tawa★LF
1-44012000
R. WaldschmidtR. Waldschmidt★CF
3-33231010
J. BarrosaJ. BarrosaCF
0-11000001
J. McCannJ. McCannC
1-11010000
Team16-3838121611223
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. GallenZ. Gallen★SP
6.0422151
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
1.0100010
B. GarciaB. GarciaRP
1.0200010
J. LoaisigaJ. LoaisigaRP
1.0100000
Team9.0822171

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

ARI

  • J. Loaisiga
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      40%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      30%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·88.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

16

2

Runs

12

3

Errors

0

Current series

ARI wins series 3-0

May 19SFSF2@ARIARI12today
May 20SFSF3@ARIARI5
May 20SFSF3@ARIARI6

Season series

ARI leads series 1-0

May 19SFSF2@ARIARI12today
May 20SFSF3@ARIARI5
May 20SFSF3@ARIARI6
May 25ARIARI6@SFSF2
May 27ARIARI7@SFSF5
May 27ARIARI3@SFSF2
Jun 30SFSF@ARIARIupcoming
Jul 1SFSF@ARIARIupcoming
Jul 2SFSF@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 28ARIARI@SFSFupcoming
Aug 29ARIARI@SFSFupcoming
Aug 30ARIARI@SFSFupcoming
Aug 30ARIARI@SFSFupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ARI -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SFSF+11447%
ARIARI-13758%

↘7· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 1st Inning

SFSF
W. Adames

W. Adames

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

R. Ray

R. Ray

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 1 K · 9 ER · 11 H · 2 BB

ARIARI
J. McCann

J. McCann

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

Z. Gallen

Z. Gallen

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ARI beat SF 12-2.

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARIBottom 1st Inning · 0-4
+16pp→ 88% WP

Arenado · homered to left (403 feet), Marte scored, Carroll scored and Perdomo scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF0110000002
ARI41205000—12

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

2

Runs

12

8

Hits

16

3

Errors

0

13

TB

26

1

HR

2

1

BB

2

7

K

3

10

LOB

14

Betting line

ARI -1.5·O/U 9·SF +114/ARI -137

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

ARI vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

SF won 0 · ARI won 3

0
4

Inn 1

Arenado 4

1
1

Inn 2

Adames 1

Marte 1

1
2

Inn 3

Arraez 1

Tawa 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
5

Inn 5

Moreno 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SF
ARI

Play-by-play · 558 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  2. T9

    Bader flied out to center.

    · ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  9. T9

    Jonathan Loaisiga pitches to Harrison Bader

    · ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  10. T9

    ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  11. T9

    Eldridge singled to left.

    ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  16. T9

    Jonathan Loaisiga pitches to Bryce Eldridge

    ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  17. T9

    ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  18. T9

    Chapman popped out to shortstop.

    ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  23. T9

    Jonathan Loaisiga pitches to Matt Chapman

    ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  24. T9

    ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  25. T9

    J. Rodríguez grounded out to third.

    ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  29. T9

    Jonathan Loaisiga pitches to Jesus Rodriguez

    ·

    SF 2·ARI 12

  30. T9

    Fernandez at first base.

    SF 2·ARI 12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jorge BarrosaARI · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

ARI vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.6%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    58.4%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.8%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.6%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.