• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+5CIN
SF

SF

6-12

3
8
CIN

CIN

11-7

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
13,822 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

CIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

CIN no-vig %

49.6%

open 49.6%

+2.0+1.0CIN SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL53.6%45.6%CIN NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 25, 8 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

SF 3 · CIN 8 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF0200001003
CIN430100008

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 31, 26sim 96
    238
    17(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 96
    75
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 96
    265
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 95
    33
    17(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 95
    186
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 95
    269
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Wed, Apr 15·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 2-1/VegasSF -112

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds held off San Francisco Giants, 8–3.

CIN +1.5 cashed (SF lost outright). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Rafael Devers

Rafael Devers

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Sal Stewart

Sal Stewart

1B

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

6

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF6-12
3
8
CIN11-7
SF6-12·CIN11-7
SF

SF

6-12

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-44000004
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-33010010
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
0-44000000
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
2-44120001
SPRINT25.716
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
1-44110000
SPRINT28.175
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
1-33110010
SPRINT27.148
D. SusacD. Susac★C
2-44022000
W. BrennanW. Brennan★LF
0-22000000
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
0-22000000
H. RamosH. RamosLF
1-22011001
SPRINT27.251
J. EncarnacionJ. EncarnacionRF
1-22010000
Team9-3434393026
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. MahleT. Mahle★SP
4.0888564
B. TidwellB. TidwellRP
1.0000010
R. BoruckiR. BoruckiRP
1.0000010
J. BrubakerJ. BrubakerRP
2.0200120
Team8.010886104
CIN

CIN

11-7

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
1-44110000
SPRINT26.838
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-22200031
SPRINT28.586
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-44211113
SPRINT2872
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
2-44226201
SPRINT26.530
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
3-44131100
SPRINT25.818
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
2-44020002
R. HindsR. Hinds★RF
0-44000002
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
1-33010011
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-33000010
Team10-323281084610
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. LowderR. Lowder★SP
6.2533140
B. BurkeB. BurkeRP
0.1200010
G. AshcraftG. AshcraftRP
1.0100100
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
1.0100010
Team9.0933260

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • T. Mahle
    89 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      25%·92.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      22%·85.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      20%·85.8 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      19%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·92.2 mph·20% whiff
  • J. Brubaker
    28 pitches·39% CSW
    • SI
      61%·95.0 mph·27% whiff
    • SL
      21%·88.2 mph·75% whiff
    • CH
      7%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·83.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      4%·93.8 mph·— whiff
  • B. Tidwell
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • ST
      46%·83.9 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      38%·98.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      8%·97.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·85.1 mph·— whiff
  • R. Borucki
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • FS
      44%·83.9 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      22%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      11%·81.6 mph·100% whiff

CIN

  • R. Lowder
    90 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      29%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·93.5 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      24%·87.1 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.7 mph·60% whiff
  • G. Ashcraft
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • FC
      57%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      43%·89.9 mph·20% whiff
  • P. Johnson
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • CU
      64%·86.0 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      36%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Burke
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      54%·96.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      23%·88.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      23%·88.1 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

10

3

Runs

8

0

Errors

0

Current series

CIN wins series 2-1

Apr 14SFSF1@CINCIN2
Apr 15SFSF3@CINCIN8today
Apr 16SFSF3@CINCIN0

Season series

CIN leads series 2-0

Apr 14SFSF1@CINCIN2
Apr 15SFSF3@CINCIN8today
Apr 16SFSF3@CINCIN0
Aug 25CINCIN@SFSFupcoming
Aug 26CINCIN@SFSFupcoming
Aug 26CINCIN@SFSFupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SF -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SFSF-11253%
CINCIN-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SF -1.5↗SpreadBet SF -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 23pp · Bottom 1st Inning

SFSF
R. Devers

R. Devers

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

T. Mahle

T. Mahle

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 8 ER · 8 H · 5 BB

CINCIN
S. Stewart

S. Stewart

1B

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

R. Lowder

R. Lowder

SP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CIN beat SF 8-3. Stewart's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Win probability

CIN vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+23pp→ 77% WP

Stewart · homered to right center (387 feet), Friedl scored and McLain scored.

SFTop 2nd Inning · 2-4
+15pp→ 35% WP

Susac · doubled to left, Lee scored and Chapman scored.

CINBottom 2nd Inning · 2-7
+18pp→ 90% WP

Stewart · homered to right center (383 feet), McLain scored and De La Cruz scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF0200001003
CIN43010000—8

Period scoring

SF won 1 · CIN won 3

0
4

Inn 1

Stewart 3

2
3

Inn 2

Susac 2

Stewart 3

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Cruz 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Ramos 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SF
CIN

Play-by-play · 559 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  2. T9

    Encarnacion flied out to right.

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  8. T9

    Pierce Johnson pitches to Jerar Encarnacion

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  9. T9

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  10. T9

    Ramos struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

    +0.5pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  15. T9

    Pierce Johnson pitches to Heliot Ramos

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  16. T9

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  17. T9

    Susac fouled out to right, Lee to third.

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

    +0.8pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  20. T9

    Pierce Johnson pitches to Daniel Susac

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  21. T9

    ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  22. T9

    Lee doubled to center.

    ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

    −0.8pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  26. T9

    Pierce Johnson pitches to Jung Hoo Lee

    ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  27. T9

    Johnson relieved Ashcraft

    ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

  28. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SF 3·CIN 8

  29. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SF 3·CIN 8

  30. B8

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 8

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

3

Runs

8

9

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

11

TB

22

0

HR

4

2

BB

6

6

K

10

14

LOB

13

Betting line

SF -1.5·O/U 9·SF -112/CIN -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

CIN vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.3low
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.4± 2.1high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    1.9± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Tyler StephensonCIN
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.4± 3.6low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.4± 2.6low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.2%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    58.4%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.2%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.5%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.35 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872