• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+2HOU
HOU

HOU

10-16

2
0
CLE

CLE

14-12

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
15,722 attended

Line movement

29 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

CLE no-vig %

60.0%

open 60.0%

-1.0-2.0CLE SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL64.0%56.0%CLE NO-VIG %MODEL 63.4%May 3, 7 PMMay 24, 8 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 2 · CLE 0 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU2000000002
CLE0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 1, 26sim 96
    260
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 96
    211
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 95
    261
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 95
    212
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 95
    261
    30(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 94
    44
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-168

Close price

-168

Open no-vig

60.0%

Close no-vig

60.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Wed, Apr 22·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 2-1/VegasCLE -168

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros went into Cleveland Guardians and beat them, 2–0.

HOU +1.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 6.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Yordan Alvarez

Yordan Alvarez

DH

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Chase DeLauter

Chase DeLauter

RF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU10-16
2
0
CLE14-12
HOU10-16·CLE14-12
HOU

HOU

10-16

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-44110001
SPRINT27.251
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
3-44132100
SPRINT24.64
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-44000000
SPRINT27.867
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
1-33010010
SPRINT25.920
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.18
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-44000002
D. JohnsonD. Johnson★CF
0-44000001
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
0-33000011
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
0-22000010
Team6-3232262136
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. LambertP. Lambert★SP
6.0300380
A. BlubaughA. BlubaughRP
1.0000010
S. OkertS. OkertRP
0.2100000
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
1.1100110
Team9.05004100
CLE

CLE

14-12

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-33010010
SPRINT26.530
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
2-44020000
SPRINT26.941
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-44010002
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
0-22000012
SPRINT25.411
G. ValeraG. Valera★LF
0-44000000
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
1-33010012
SPRINT27.457
J. BritoJ. Brito★2B
0-33000002
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
0-33000011
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-44000000
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins1B
0-11000001
A. MartinezA. MartinezLF
0-11000000
Team5-32320500410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BibeeT. Bibee★SP
6.0522231
M. FestaM. FestaRP
1.0000120
H. GaddisH. GaddisRP
1.0000000
E. SabrowskiE. SabrowskiRP
1.0100010
Team9.0622361

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • P. Lambert
    96 pitches·30% CSW
    • CH
      27%·88.8 mph·23% whiff
    • FF
      26%·95.1 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      21%·93.3 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.2 mph·36% whiff
    • SV
      6%·82.9 mph·33% whiff
  • E. De Los Santos
    24 pitches·42% CSW
    • SL
      54%·86.3 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      33%·86.2 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      13%·94.9 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Blubaugh
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • FF
      41%·96.1 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      35%·86.8 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      18%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·78.6 mph·— whiff
  • S. Okert
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • SL
      63%·81.1 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      38%·91.4 mph·0% whiff

CLE

  • T. Bibee
    95 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      27%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      21%·85.9 mph·44% whiff
    • CH
      20%·80.5 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      17%·76.6 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      15%·94.0 mph·25% whiff
  • M. Festa
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      50%·82.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      39%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·92.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·92.9 mph·— whiff
  • E. Sabrowski
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • CU
      53%·81.4 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      29%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·87.6 mph·50% whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    5 pitches·0% CSW
    • SL
      100%·90.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

5

2

Runs

0

1

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 2-1

Apr 20HOUHOU9@CLECLE2
Apr 21HOUHOU5@CLECLE8
Apr 22HOUHOU2@CLECLE0today

Season series

HOU leads series 2-1

Apr 20HOUHOU9@CLECLE2
Apr 21HOUHOU5@CLECLE8
Apr 22HOUHOU2@CLECLE0today
Jun 20CLECLE@HOUHOUupcoming
Jun 20CLECLE@HOUHOUupcoming
Jun 21CLECLE@HOUHOUupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU+13942%
CLECLE-16863%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Line movement · 29 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 1st Inning

HOUHOU
Y. Alvarez

Y. Alvarez

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

P. Lambert

P. Lambert

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

CLECLE
C. DeLauter

C. DeLauter

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

T. Bibee

T. Bibee

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

HOU beat CLE 2-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CLE vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 60% WP

Alvarez · homered to right center (422 feet), Correa scored.

HOUTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+10pp→ 68% WP

Matthews · walked.

HOUTop 6th Inning · 2-0
+8pp→ 79% WP

Alvarez · singled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU2000000002
CLE0000000000

Period scoring

HOU won 1 · CLE won 0

2
0

Inn 1

Alvarez 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

HOU
CLE

Play-by-play · 549 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  3. B9

    Rocchio flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

    −7pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  10. B9

    Enyel De Los Santos pitches to Brayan Rocchio

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  11. B9

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  12. B9

    Naylor walked.

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

    +4pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  15. B9

    Schneemann to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  16. B9

    Schneemann to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  20. B9

    Enyel De Los Santos pitches to Bo Naylor

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  21. B9

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  22. B9

    Martínez flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

    −6pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  27. B9

    Enyel De Los Santos pitches to Angel Martinez

    · ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  28. B9

    Martínez hit for Brito

    ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  29. B9

    ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

  30. B9

    Schneemann reached on infield single to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    HOU 2·CLE 0

    +6pp

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

2

Runs

0

6

Hits

5

1

Errors

0

10

TB

5

1

HR

0

3

BB

4

6

K

10

15

LOB

18

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 8·HOU +139/CLE -168

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

CLE vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.2± 0.8low
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    2.8± 2.8low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.7%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    61.8%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.9%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.1%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 15 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395