Matchup orbital
CHW
CHW
15-17
Sat, 8:40 PM EDT
Win prob
AWAY · HOME
SD
SD
19-12
Place your bet
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Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Sean Burke
SP · #59
1-2
W-L
3.21
ERA
1.04
WHIP
24
K
33.2
IP
Last 3 starts
Home starter
Michael King
SP · #34
3-1
W-L
2.41
ERA
1.04
WHIP
34
K
33.2
IP
Last 3 starts
Vegas line
Model edge
Head to head
Place a bet
Take SD on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
CHWCHWWin prob axisSDCHW +153/SD -186Pass · no valueCHW
White Sox
15-17
SD★
Padres
19-12
CHW15-17
CHW
19-12SD
SD
Preview · MLB
hicago White Sox visit San Diego Padres Saturday at 5/2 - 8:40 PM EDT. CHW arrives on a 4-game win streak (8-4 in their last 12).
Vegas opened SD as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 8.0. SD's moneyline implies a 65% break-even, CHW the inverse.
For bettors: the SD side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 8.0 total reads defensive vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Current series
CHW lead series 1-0
CHW8@SD2CHW@SDtodayCHW@SDupcomingSeason series
CHW lead series 1-0
CHW8@SD2CHW@SDtodayCHW@SDupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SD -1.5
Total
8.0
Defensive · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
CHW+15340%SD-18665%8· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 50 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
+1.5 since open
Total
8.0
+0.5 since open
Pitching matchup · today
ESPN · season statsCHWSPS. Burke
#59 · 1-2
ERA
3.21
K
24
SV
—
Last 3 starts
WSH7.1 IP · 0 ER · 4 K-
ARI6.0 IP · 2 ER · 3 KW(1-2)
TB5.1 IP · 4 ER · 2 KL(0-2)SDSPM. King
#34 · 3-1
ERA
2.41
K
34
SV
—
Last 3 starts
ARI6.0 IP · 2 ER · 8 K-
LAA5.0 IP · 0 ER · 6 KW(3-1)
SEA6.0 IP · 1 ER · 5 KW(2-1)Scouting report
CHW @ SD
Rest going in
1 day
last game May 1
1 day
last game May 1
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
SD -1.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
8.0
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
SD -186
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
15-17
Record
19-12
#8
Conf rank
#5
-0.5
Pt diff
0.0
W4
Streak
L3
7-3
Last 10
5-5
Bullpen used yesterday
CHW
3.0 bullpen IP · heavy
- T. Davis1.0 IP9 P
- O. Bido1.0 IP31 P
- J. Hicks1.0 IP12 P
W 8-2 · May 1
SD
4.0 bullpen IP · heavy
- W. Peralta2.0 IP34 P
- R. Marinaccio2.0 IP41 P
L 8-2 · May 1
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
CHW
Away
Stat
SD
Home
238
Hits
240
17
Errors
8
137
Runs
141
Player box score
CHW
15-17
| Player | H-AB | RBI | HR |
|---|
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|
SD
19-12
| Player | H-AB | RBI | HR |
|---|
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|
Betting line
SD -1.5·O/U 8·CHW +153/SD -186