
ATH
27-26

SD
31-21
Line movement
200 snapshots
SD spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
SD no-vig %
60.3%
open 60.0% · +0.4
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
ATH wins
ATH 5 · SD 2 (by 3)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked SD +9pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATH | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Line shopping · 1 book
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+34.7pp
best edge · SD · DraftKings
ATH
no live price
SD
★ bestedge +34.7pp · implied 25.4%
| Book | ATH | SD | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -385 | +270★ | +34.7 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Recap · MLB
thletics went into San Diego Padres and beat them, 5–2.
ATH +1.5 cashed (SD lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ATH · top performer

Carlos Cortes
RF
4-2
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
SD · top performer

Ty France
1B
4-2
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


ATH
27-26
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.716 | ||||||||
| 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
SPRINT26.632 | ||||||||
| 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT26.735 | ||||||||
| 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
SPRINT25.18 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 10-36 | 36 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4.2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
SD
31-21
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 3-5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT28.483 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT26.530 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.735 | ||||||||
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.148 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT24.74 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 9-32 | 32 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 3.2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 1 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantATH
SD
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
10
Hits
9
5
Runs
2
1
Errors
0
Current series
SD wins series 2-1
Season series
SD wins series 2-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SD -1.5
Total
7.5
Defensive · -1.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
+1.5 since open
Total
7.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 2nd Inning
C. Cortes
RFBatter of the game
2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS
J. Lopez
SPTop reliever
4.2 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 1 BB
T. France
1BBatter of the game
2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS
M. King
SPStarting pitcher
3.2 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 4 BB
How it ended
ATH beat SD 5-2.
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
SD vs ATH
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactBolte · doubled to left, Gelof scored.
France · homered to right (361 feet).
Laureano · walked, Merrill to second.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATH | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Period scoring
ATH won 4 · SD won 2
Inn 1
Inn 2
Bolte 1
Inn 3
Inn 4
Cortes 1
Inn 5
Inn 6
Machado 1
Inn 7
France 1
Inn 8
Inn 9
Soderstrom 1
Play-by-play · 635 plays
End of the 9th inning
ATH 5·SD 2
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
Tatis Jr. flied out to right.
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
−4pp
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
Scott Barlow pitches to Fernando Tatis Jr.
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
Castellanos struck out swinging.
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
−5pp
Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
Scott Barlow pitches to Nick Castellanos
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
Barlow relieved Harris
·
ATH 5·SD 2
Castellanos hit for Durán
·
ATH 5·SD 2
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
France struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
−8pp
Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
Hogan Harris pitches to Ty France
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
Laureano walked, Merrill to second.BIG MOMENT
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
+9pp
Pitch 4 : Ball 4
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
Pitch 3 : Ball 3
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
ATH 5·SD 2
Team stats
ATH
Away
Stat
SD
Home
5
Runs
2
10
Hits
9
1
Errors
0
15
TB
14
1
HR
1
7
BB
4
11
K
7
24
LOB
16
Betting line
SD -1.5·O/U 7.5·ATH +144/SD -175
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohortPlayer projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 82 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
60.1%
ensemble · SD favored
Elo Static
59.3%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.8%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.33 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.