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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3ATH
ATH

ATH

27-26

5
2
SD

SD

31-21

Petco Park · San Diego, California
41,799 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SD spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SD no-vig %

60.3%

open 60.0% · +0.4

+0.5-2.0SD SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL64.3%56.0%SD NO-VIG %MODEL 60.1%May 23, 4 PMMay 24, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 5 · SD 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH1201000015
SD0000011002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+34.7pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

ATH

no live price

SD

★ best
+270DraftKings

edge +34.7pp · implied 25.4%

BookATHSDBest edge
DraftKings-385+270★+34.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sun, May 24·Final/SeriesSD wins series 2-1/VegasSD -175

Recap · MLB

Athletics went into San Diego Padres and beat them, 5–2.

ATH +1.5 cashed (SD lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Carlos Cortes

Carlos Cortes

RF

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Ty France

Ty France

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Athletics at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH27-26
5
2
SD31-21
ATH27-26·SD31-21
ATH

ATH

27-26

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
2-44121110
SPRINT25.716
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
2-44020012
SPRINT26.632
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
0-55000002
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
2-55021000
SPRINT26.735
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
2-44120012
SPRINT25.18
Z. GelofZ. Gelof★3B
0-44100012
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-33000021
H. BolteH. Bolte★CF
1-33111011
A. WilliamsA. Williams★2B
1-44011001
Team10-363651041711
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. MedinaL. Medina★RP
1.1200010
J. LopezJ. LopezSP
4.2611130
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
1.0111011
M. Leiter Jr.M. Leiter Jr.RP
1.0000100
H. HarrisH. HarrisRP
0.1000210
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
0.2000010
Team9.0922471
SD

SD

31-21

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
3-55030000
SPRINT28.483
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
1-44110000
SPRINT26.530
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.735
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-22001010
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
2-33020010
SPRINT27.148
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
0-33000010
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
0-33000012
T. FranceT. France★1B
2-44121101
SPRINT24.74
R. DuranR. Duran★C
0-33000002
N. CastellanosN. CastellanosRF
0-11000001
Team9-3232292147
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KingM. King★SP
3.2544441
R. MarinaccioR. MarinaccioRP
3.0100120
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
1.1100120
B. RodriguezB. RodriguezRP
1.0311130
Team9.010557111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • J. Lopez
    91 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      32%·91.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      29%·77.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      22%·85.8 mph·27% whiff
    • CH
      15%·84.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      2%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Sterner
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • ST
      47%·82.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      26%·89.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      26%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Medina
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      33%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      28%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·86.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      11%·89.4 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      6%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Harris
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      73%·95.2 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      7%·85.8 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      7%·75.5 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      7%·92.5 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      7%·87.6 mph·— whiff
  • M. Leiter Jr.
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FC
      31%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      31%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·73.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      15%·84.3 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      8%·91.7 mph·— whiff
  • S. Barlow
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • ST
      75%·78.1 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      25%·88.6 mph·50% whiff

SD

  • M. King
    81 pitches·26% CSW
    • CH
      31%·85.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      28%·92.7 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      19%·94.0 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      14%·82.6 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      9%·85.6 mph·20% whiff
  • R. Marinaccio
    38 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      53%·94.3 mph·10% whiff
    • FC
      24%·87.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      21%·82.1 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      3%·82.1 mph·— whiff
  • W. Peralta
    30 pitches·27% CSW
    • CH
      43%·90.0 mph·57% whiff
    • SI
      40%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·90.0 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      3%·97.1 mph·— whiff
  • B. Rodriguez
    27 pitches·41% CSW
    • CH
      41%·88.7 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      33%·97.1 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      22%·97.2 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      4%·88.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

9

5

Runs

2

1

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 2-1

May 23ATHATH3@SDSD7
May 24ATHATH0@SDSD2
May 24ATHATH5@SDSD2today

Season series

SD wins series 2-1

May 23ATHATH3@SDSD7
May 24ATHATH0@SDSD2
May 24ATHATH5@SDSD2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SD -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ATHATH+14441%
SDSD-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SD -1.5↗SpreadBet SD -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 2nd Inning

ATHATH
C. Cortes

C. Cortes

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

J. Lopez

J. Lopez

SP

Top reliever

4.2 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

SDSD
T. France

T. France

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

M. King

M. King

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

How it ended

ATH beat SD 5-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SD vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 53% WP

Bolte · doubled to left, Gelof scored.

SDBottom 7th Inning · 4-2
+9pp→ 20% WP

France · homered to right (361 feet).

SDBottom 9th Inning · 5-2
+9pp→ 17% WP

Laureano · walked, Merrill to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH1201000015
SD0000011002

Period scoring

ATH won 4 · SD won 2

1
0

Inn 1

2
0

Inn 2

Bolte 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Cortes 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Machado 1

0
1

Inn 7

France 1

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Soderstrom 1

ATH
SD

Play-by-play · 635 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATH 5·SD 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  3. B9

    Tatis Jr. flied out to right.

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  7. B9

    Scott Barlow pitches to Fernando Tatis Jr.

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  8. B9

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  9. B9

    Castellanos struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

    −5pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  15. B9

    Scott Barlow pitches to Nick Castellanos

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  16. B9

    Barlow relieved Harris

    ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  17. B9

    Castellanos hit for Durán

    ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  18. B9

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  19. B9

    France struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

    −8pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  24. B9

    Hogan Harris pitches to Ty France

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  25. B9

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  26. B9

    Laureano walked, Merrill to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

    +9pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 5·SD 2

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

SD

Home

5

Runs

2

10

Hits

9

1

Errors

0

15

TB

14

1

HR

1

7

BB

4

11

K

7

24

LOB

16

Betting line

SD -1.5·O/U 7.5·ATH +144/SD -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 19, 26sim 96
    263
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 96
    236
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 96
    237
    24(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 94
    72
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 94
    44
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 93
    181
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Zack GelofATH · 3B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SD vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    5.5± 3.7low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    4.8± 2.0low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.7± 2.0high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.6± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Ty FranceSD
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.1%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    59.3%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.8%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.0%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.