• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+3STL
PIT

PIT

24-24

6
9
STL

STL

28-19

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
22,958 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

STL no-vig %

50.0%

open 49.6% · +0.4

+2.0+1.0STL SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL54.0%45.6%STL NO-VIG %May 18, 5 PMMay 19, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

PIT 6 · STL 9 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked STL +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
PIT00004000206
STL00210201039

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.0pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

PIT

no live price

STL

★ best
-123DraftKings

edge +5.0pp · implied 51.7%

BookPITSTLBest edge
DraftKings-106-123★+5.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 12, 26sim 97
    187
    12(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 96
    92
    4(H)15
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 96
    177
    5(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 94
    186
    12(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 94
    208
    17(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 93
    262
    29(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, May 19·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 2-1/VegasSTL -110

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals held off Pittsburgh Pirates, 9–6.

STL +1.5 cashed (PIT lost outright). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Spencer Horwitz

Spencer Horwitz

1B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Alec Burleson

Alec Burleson

1B

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

3

R

1

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
PIT24-24
6
9
STL28-19
PIT24-24·STL28-19
PIT

PIT

24-24

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-55210011
SPRINT28.586
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
1-44110002
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
1-44112001
SPRINT27.969
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-33000022
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
2-44021012
SPRINT28.483
J. GarciaJ. Garcia★RF
1-44010001
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
2-55120002
SPRINT27.148
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
3-44130000
SPRINT28.483
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-33000001
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz1B
1-11011000
J. MangumJ. MangumLF
0-11000001
E. RodriguezE. RodriguezC
0-22000000
Team12-404061240413
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KellerM. Keller★SP
5.2444131
E. SiskE. SiskRP
1.0211201
B. BidoisB. BidoisRP
1.1111111
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.0000030
Team9.0998474
STL

STL

28-19

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
2-44222111
SPRINT27.560
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-55113102
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
2-33321100
SPRINT25.513
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
1-44010000
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
1-33112110
SPRINT257
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
1-44010001
C. PrietoC. Prieto★3B
0-22000000
P. PagesP. Pages★C
1-33110011
SPRINT25.716
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
0-33100001
T. SaggeseT. SaggeseLF
0-11000011
Team9-3232998447
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. LiberatoreM. Liberatore★SP
4.2744290
G. GraceffoG. GraceffoRP
1.1100010
R. StanekR. StanekRP
0.2100100
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
1.1100020
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
1.0222100
G. SorianoG. SorianoRP
1.0000010
Team10.012664130

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • M. Keller
    83 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      28%·93.1 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      22%·89.0 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      12%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·78.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      11%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·89.7 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      8%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Bidois
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      47%·97.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      47%·86.6 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      5%·91.4 mph·— whiff
  • E. Sisk
    18 pitches·11% CSW
    • SI
      50%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·76.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·79.8 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      11%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·90.2 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Soto
    13 pitches·54% CSW
    • FF
      46%·97.2 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      23%·85.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      15%·98.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      15%·84.8 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • CU
      60%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·98.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      20%·88.4 mph·0% whiff

STL

  • M. Liberatore
    77 pitches·32% CSW
    • CU
      23%·81.0 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      19%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·87.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      17%·89.5 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      16%·91.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      6%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Romero
    29 pitches·31% CSW
    • ST
      55%·83.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      31%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·87.6 mph·— whiff
  • R. O'Brien
    22 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      55%·98.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      45%·83.3 mph·67% whiff
  • G. Graceffo
    20 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      35%·95.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      30%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·94.6 mph·— whiff
  • G. Soriano
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • CH
      58%·89.9 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      17%·96.5 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      17%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Stanek
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      44%·97.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      22%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      11%·90.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

9

6

Runs

9

0

Errors

2

Current series

PIT wins series 2-1

May 19PITPIT6@STLSTL9today
May 20PITPIT7@STLSTL0
May 21PITPIT6@STLSTL2

Season series

STL leads series 5-0

Apr 27STLSTL4@PITPIT2
Apr 28STLSTL11@PITPIT7
Apr 29STLSTL5@PITPIT4
Apr 30STLSTL10@PITPIT5
May 19PITPIT6@STLSTL9today
May 20PITPIT7@STLSTL0
May 21PITPIT6@STLSTL2
Aug 29PITPIT@STLSTLupcoming
Aug 29PITPIT@STLSTLupcoming
Aug 30PITPIT@STLSTLupcoming
Sep 22STLSTL@PITPITupcoming
Sep 23STLSTL@PITPITupcoming
Sep 24STLSTL@PITPITupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT-11052%
STLSTL-11052%

↘2· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 37pp · Bottom 6th Inning

PITPIT
S. Horwitz

S. Horwitz

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

M. Keller

M. Keller

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

STLSTL
A. Burleson

A. Burleson

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

M. Liberatore

M. Liberatore

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 9 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

STL beat PIT 9-6. Gorman's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (37pp).

Win probability

STL vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 5th Inning · 3-3
+23pp→ 47% WP

Reynolds · doubled to left, Gonzales scored and Triolo scored.

STLBottom 6th Inning · 4-5
+37pp→ 71% WP

Gorman · homered to center (437 feet), Burleson scored.

PITTop 9th Inning · 6-6
+33pp→ 48% WP

Horwitz · singled to left, Griffin scored, Cruz to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
PIT00004000206
STL00210201039

Period scoring

PIT won 2 · STL won 5

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Wetherholt 2

0
1

Inn 4

Gorman 1

4
0

Inn 5

Reynolds 2

0
2

Inn 6

Gorman 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Burleson 1

2
0

Inn 9

Ozuna 1

0
3

Inn 10

Herrera 3

PIT
STL

Play-by-play · 624 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 9

  2. B10

    Herrera homered to left center (410 feet), Scott II scored and Wetherholt scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 9

    +7pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 9

  4. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  5. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  6. B10

    Mason Montgomery pitches to Ivan Herrera

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 9

  7. B10

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  8. B10

    Wetherholt singled to right, Scott II to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

    +12pp

  9. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  10. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  11. B10

    Mason Montgomery pitches to JJ Wetherholt

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  12. B10

    Montgomery relieved Soto

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  13. B10

    Mangum in right field.

    PIT 6·STL 6

  14. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    PIT 6·STL 6

  15. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    PIT 6·STL 6

  16. T10

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  17. T10

    Gonzales grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

    +9pp

  18. T10

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  19. T10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  20. T10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  21. T10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  22. T10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  23. T10

    George Soriano pitches to Nick Gonzales

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  24. T10

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  25. T10

    Rodríguez flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

    +7pp

  26. T10

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  27. T10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  28. T10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  29. T10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  30. T10

    George Soriano pitches to Endy Rodriguez

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

STL

Home

6

Runs

9

12

Hits

9

0

Errors

2

13

TB

21

0

HR

4

4

BB

4

13

K

7

27

LOB

6

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 8·PIT -110/STL -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.43

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Konnor GriffinPIT · SS
    SPRINT29.899
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nathan ChurchSTL · LF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

STL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Andre PallanteSTL
    2.6± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.9%

ensemble · STL favored

  • Elo Static

    56.9%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.5%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.4%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.58 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.