• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1SEA
HOU

HOU

6-9

7
8
SEA

SEA

6-9

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
43,294 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SEA no-vig %

59.3%

open 59.3%

-1.0-2.0SEA SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL63.3%55.3%SEA NO-VIG %MODEL 56.5%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

HOU 7 · SEA 8 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0331000007
SEA2000500018

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 11, 26sim 98
    186
    12(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 97
    236
    24(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 13, 26sim 96
    2810
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 95
    308
    23(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 94
    139
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 94
    77
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sat, Apr 11·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 4-0/VegasSEA -163

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Houston Astros, 8–7. It came down to the final possession.

HOU +1.5 cashed (SEA won by 1). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Cam Smith

Cam Smith

RF

1.600OPS

5-4

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Julio Rodriguez

Julio Rodriguez

CF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU6-9
7
8
SEA6-9
HOU6-9·SEA6-9
HOU

HOU

6-9

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
1-33010000
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
3-66131100
SPRINT24.64
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
1-55011001
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
1-44010011
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
3-55230000
SPRINT27.251
J. LoperfidoJ. Loperfido★LF
2-44220012
SPRINT28.688
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
4-55142001
SPRINT29.395
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
0-55000002
T. TrammellT. Trammell★CF
2-44123012
SPRINT2744
N. AllenN. AllenSS
0-11000000
C. WalkerC. Walker1B
0-11000010
Team17-43437177149
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. McCullers Jr.L. McCullers Jr.★SP
4.1566241
S. OkertS. OkertRP
0.2111001
K. TengK. TengRP
0.2000120
B. KingB. KingRP
1.1000110
A. BlubaughA. BlubaughRP
1.0000000
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
0.1111310
Team8.1788782
SEA

SEA

6-9

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
2-33223020
SPRINT25.513
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-33113100
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
2-44122101
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-44000000
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-33000011
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
0-44000003
C. YoungC. Young★2B
1-33210011
SPRINT27.662
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-22110000
SPRINT25.920
L. RivasL. Rivas★3B
0-22100022
R. RefsnyderR. RefsnyderDH
0-11000000
Team7-2929878278
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. CastilloL. Castillo★SP
3.11077131
C. LeguminaC. LeguminaRP
1.2200020
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.0100010
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
1.0200020
M. BrashM. BrashRP
1.0100100
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0100210
Team9.01777491

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • B. Abreu
    27 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      56%·96.4 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      44%·86.9 mph·33% whiff

SEA

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

17

Hits

7

7

Runs

8

1

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 4-0

Apr 11HOUHOU6@SEASEA9
Apr 12HOUHOU7@SEASEA8today
Apr 12HOUHOU1@SEASEA6
Apr 13HOUHOU2@SEASEA6

Season series

SEA leads series 2-0

Apr 11HOUHOU6@SEASEA9
Apr 12HOUHOU7@SEASEA8today
Apr 12HOUHOU1@SEASEA6
Apr 13HOUHOU2@SEASEA6
May 12SEASEA3@HOUHOU1
May 13SEASEA10@HOUHOU2
May 14SEASEA3@HOUHOU4
May 14SEASEA8@HOUHOU3
Aug 15SEASEA@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 15SEASEA@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 16SEASEA@HOUHOUupcoming
Sep 23HOUHOU@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 24HOUHOU@SEASEAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU+13543%
SEASEA-16362%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 31pp · Bottom 9th Inning

HOUHOU
C. Smith

C. Smith

RF

Batter of the game

4-for-5 · 1 R · 1.600 OPS

L. McCullers Jr.

L. McCullers Jr.

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 4 K · 6 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

SEASEA
J. Rodriguez

J. Rodriguez

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

L. Castillo

L. Castillo

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 3 K · 7 ER · 10 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SEA beat HOU 8-7. Rivas's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).

Win probability

SEA vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUTop 2nd Inning · 3-2
+28pp→ 53% WP

Trammell · doubled to left, Correa scored, Smith scored and Loperfido scored.

SEABottom 5th Inning · 7-7
+28pp→ 55% WP

Rodr · íguez homered to center (426 feet), Crawford scored.

SEABottom 9th Inning · 7-7
+31pp→ 100% WP

Rivas · walked, Donovan to second, Young to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0331000007
SEA2000500018

Period scoring

HOU won 3 · SEA won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Raleigh 2

3
0

Inn 2

Trammell 3

3
0

Inn 3

Smith 2

1
0

Inn 4

Paredes 1

0
5

Inn 5

Crawford 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Crawford 1

HOU
SEA

Play-by-play · 666 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 8

  2. B9

    Crawford singled to left, Young scored, Rivas to second, Donovan to third.

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 8

  3. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 8

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

  6. B9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to J.P. Crawford

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 8

  7. B9

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

  8. B9

    Rivas walked, Donovan to second, Young to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

    +31pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

  10. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

  16. B9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Leo Rivas

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

  17. B9

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

  18. B9

    Donovan walked, Young to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

    +6pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

  23. B9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Brendan Donovan

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

  24. B9

    Donovan hit for Refsnyder

    ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

  25. B9

    ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

  26. B9

    Young walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

    +5pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 7·SEA 7

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

7

Runs

8

17

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

26

TB

15

1

HR

2

4

BB

7

9

K

8

30

LOB

6

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 7.5·HOU +135/SEA -163

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

SEA vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.1%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    56.7%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.9%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.0%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.