
HOU
6-9

SEA
6-9
Line movement
8 snapshots
SEA spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 7.5
SEA no-vig %
59.3%
open 59.3%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
SEA wins
HOU 7 · SEA 8 (by 1)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked SEA +7pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| SEA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+135
Close price
+135
Open no-vig
40.7%
Close no-vig
40.7%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Recap · MLB
eattle Mariners held off Houston Astros, 8–7. It came down to the final possession.
HOU +1.5 cashed (SEA won by 1). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 7.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
HOU · top performer

Cam Smith
RF
5-4
AB-H
1
R
2
RBI
SEA · top performer

Julio Rodriguez
CF
4-2
AB-H
1
R
2
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


HOU
6-9
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3-6 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT24.64 | ||||||||
| 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 3-5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.251 | ||||||||
| 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
SPRINT28.688 | ||||||||
| 4-5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT29.395 | ||||||||
| 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
SPRINT2744 | ||||||||
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 17-43 | 43 | 7 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 4.1 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 8.1 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 2 |
SEA
6-9
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.513 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.716 | ||||||||
| 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.688 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT27.662 | ||||||||
| 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.920 | ||||||||
| 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 7-29 | 29 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 3.1 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantHOU
SEA
No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
17
Hits
7
7
Runs
8
1
Errors
0
Current series
SEA wins series 4-0
Season series
SEA leads series 2-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SEA -1.5
Total
7.5
Defensive · -1.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 8 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
7.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 31pp · Bottom 9th Inning
C. Smith
RFBatter of the game
4-for-5 · 1 R · 1.600 OPS
L. McCullers Jr.
SPStarting pitcher
4.1 IP · 4 K · 6 ER · 5 H · 2 BB
J. Rodriguez
CFBatter of the game
2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS
L. Castillo
SPStarting pitcher
3.1 IP · 3 K · 7 ER · 10 H · 1 BB
How it ended
SEA beat HOU 8-7. Rivas's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).
Win probability
SEA vs HOU
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactTrammell · doubled to left, Correa scored, Smith scored and Loperfido scored.
Rodr · íguez homered to center (426 feet), Crawford scored.
Rivas · walked, Donovan to second, Young to third.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| SEA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
Period scoring
HOU won 3 · SEA won 3
Inn 1
Raleigh 2
Inn 2
Trammell 3
Inn 3
Smith 2
Inn 4
Paredes 1
Inn 5
Crawford 2
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Crawford 1
Play-by-play · 666 plays
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 8
Crawford singled to left, Young scored, Rivas to second, Donovan to third.
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 8
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 8
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 7
Bryan Abreu pitches to J.P. Crawford
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 8
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 7
Rivas walked, Donovan to second, Young to third.BIG MOMENT
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 7
+31pp
Pitch 7 : Ball 4
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 7
Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 7
Pitch 5 : Ball 3
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 7
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 7
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 7
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 7
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 7
Bryan Abreu pitches to Leo Rivas
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 7
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 7
Donovan walked, Young to second.BIG MOMENT
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 7
+6pp
Pitch 4 : Ball 4
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 7
Pitch 3 : Ball 3
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 7
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 7
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 7
Bryan Abreu pitches to Brendan Donovan
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 7
Donovan hit for Refsnyder
·
HOU 7·SEA 7
·
HOU 7·SEA 7
Young walked.BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 7·SEA 7
+5pp
Pitch 5 : Ball 4
·
HOU 7·SEA 7
Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
HOU 7·SEA 7
Pitch 3 : Ball 3
·
HOU 7·SEA 7
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
·
HOU 7·SEA 7
Team stats
HOU
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
7
Runs
8
17
Hits
7
1
Errors
0
26
TB
15
1
HR
2
4
BB
7
9
K
8
30
LOB
6
Betting line
SEA -1.5·O/U 7.5·HOU +135/SEA -163
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
4 of 16 players in cohortPlayer projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 72 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
57.1%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
56.7%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.9%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.51 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.