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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3SEA
HOU

HOU

6-8

6
9
SEA

SEA

5-9

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
44,468 attended

Line movement

12 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SEA no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

-1.0-2.0SEA SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL59.1%51.1%SEA NO-VIG %MODEL 55.0%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 9 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

HOU 6 · SEA 9 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0300000306
SEA300020409

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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MLB·Fri, Apr 10·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 4-0/VegasSEA -136

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Houston Astros, 9–6.

SEA -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Yordan Alvarez

Yordan Alvarez

DH

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Randy Arozarena

Randy Arozarena

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU6-8
6
9
SEA5-9
HOU6-8·SEA5-9
HOU

HOU

6-8

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
1-55110001
SPRINT28.483
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
2-33123110
SPRINT24.64
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-44000001
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
1-22110000
SPRINT25.18
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-33100011
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-44110001
SPRINT27.251
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-44000000
J. LoperfidoJ. Loperfido★LF
1-33010011
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
2-33123001
SPRINT22.90
Team8-3131686146
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. ImaiT. Imai★SP
0.1133400
S. OkertS. OkertRP
1.2000020
R. WeissR. WeissRP
2.1422241
J.P. FranceJ.P. FranceSP
2.2344430
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
1.0100010
Team8.099910101
SEA

SEA

5-9

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-33111021
SPRINT25.513
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-33101020
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-55110001
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-44110012
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
2-44123101
SPRINT26.941
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
1-44111002
SPRINT28.175
C. YoungC. Young★2B
1-33110021
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-44111012
SPRINT25.920
L. RivasL. Rivas★3B
1-22110020
Team9-323299711010
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. HancockE. Hancock★SP
5.0433250
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
1.0100000
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
1.0000000
C. WilcoxC. WilcoxRP
0.1333001
M. BrashM. BrashRP
0.2000000
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0000210
Team9.0866461

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • S. Okert
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • SL
      64%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      36%·90.3 mph·0% whiff

SEA

  • A. Munoz
    24 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      54%·87.9 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      33%·98.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·98.4 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Bazardo
    16 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      63%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      38%·82.6 mph·50% whiff
  • M. Brash
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      50%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·91.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      25%·96.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

9

6

Runs

9

0

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 4-0

Apr 11HOUHOU6@SEASEA9today
Apr 12HOUHOU7@SEASEA8
Apr 12HOUHOU1@SEASEA6
Apr 13HOUHOU2@SEASEA6

Season series

SEA leads series 1-0

Apr 11HOUHOU6@SEASEA9today
Apr 12HOUHOU7@SEASEA8
Apr 12HOUHOU1@SEASEA6
Apr 13HOUHOU2@SEASEA6
May 12SEASEA3@HOUHOU1
May 13SEASEA10@HOUHOU2
May 14SEASEA3@HOUHOU4
May 14SEASEA8@HOUHOU3
Aug 15SEASEA@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 15SEASEA@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 16SEASEA@HOUHOUupcoming
Sep 23HOUHOU@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 24HOUHOU@SEASEAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU+11347%
SEASEA-13658%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 2nd Inning

HOUHOU
Y. Alvarez

Y. Alvarez

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

R. Weiss

R. Weiss

RP

Top reliever

2.1 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

SEASEA
R. Arozarena

R. Arozarena

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

E. Hancock

E. Hancock

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SEA beat HOU 9-6. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the top 2nd inning (24pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUTop 2nd Inning · 3-3
+24pp→ 43% WP

Vázquez doubled to left, Correa scored, Paredes scored and Walker scored.

SEABottom 5th Inning · 3-5
+20pp→ 84% WP

Arozarena · homered to left center (426 feet), Naylor scored.

SEABottom 6th Inning · 3-5
+14pp→ 89% WP

Raleigh · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0300000306
SEA30002040—9

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

6

Runs

9

8

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

12

TB

14

1

HR

1

4

BB

10

6

K

10

16

LOB

24

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 8·HOU +113/SEA -136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

SEA vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · SEA won 3

0
3

Inn 1

Naylor 1

3
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Arozarena 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
4

Inn 7

Canzone 1

3
0

Inn 8

Alvarez 3

0

Inn 9

HOU
SEA

Play-by-play · 652 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  2. T9

    Peña grounded into fielder's choice to third, Loperfido out at third.

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  8. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Jeremy Pena

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  9. T9

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  10. T9

    Trammell walked.

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

    −2pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  14. T9

    Loperfido to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  15. T9

    Loperfido to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  18. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Taylor Trammell

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  19. T9

    Trammell hit for Vázquez

    ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  20. T9

    ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  21. T9

    Loperfido walked.

    ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

    −0.6pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 4

    ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  23. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  24. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  25. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

  30. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Joey Loperfido

    ·

    HOU 6·SEA 9

Player projections

SEA vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.0%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    55.6%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.7%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.9%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.86 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 12, 26sim 98
    187
    12(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 98
    308
    23(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 13, 26sim 96
    2810
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 95
    77
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 20, 26sim 95
    66
    2(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 94
    177
    5(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
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