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FINAL+6CHC
CHC
27-12
71
TEX
17-21
Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
32,394 attended
Line movement
200 snapshots
TEX spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
TEX no-vig %
44.9%
open 44.9%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
39.4%
ensemble · CHC favored
Elo Static
41.3%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
37.4%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
39.6%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
1.59 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
89% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
Player projections
TEX vs CHC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
122
projections · 63 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jacob deGromTEX6.7± 3.2low
- Shota ImanagaCHC6.6± 4.5low
- Jack LeiterTEX6.1± 3.8low
Hits
- Josh JungTEX1.3± 1.0high
- Seiya SuzukiCHC1.2± 1.1high
- Carson KellyCHC1.1± 1.0high
Total bases
- Seiya SuzukiCHC2.2± 2.4high
- Ian HappCHC1.9± 3.1high
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC1.9± 1.7high
RBIs
- Michael BuschCHC0.8± 1.4high
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC0.7± 1.3high
- Seiya SuzukiCHC0.7± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Jack LeiterTEX3.3± 2.0low
- MacKenzie GoreTEX2.9± 2.2low
- Jameson TaillonCHC2.7± 2.7low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
CHC wins
CHC 7 · TEX 1 (by 6)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked CHC +9pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
