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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1MIA
MIA

MIA

14-16

2
1
LAD

LAD

20-10

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
51,909 attended

Line movement

35 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

LAD no-vig %

70.5%

open 70.5%

-1.0-2.0LAD SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL74.5%66.5%LAD NO-VIG %MODEL 68.3%May 3, 7 PMMay 24, 11 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 2 · LAD 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0100100002
LAD0000000101

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+224

Close price

+224

Open no-vig

29.5%

Close no-vig

29.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 5, 26sim 96
    172
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 95
    283
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 95
    290
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 95
    202
    15(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 93
    210
    19(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 93
    23
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Apr 28·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 2-1/VegasLAD -280

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins went into Los Angeles Dodgers and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

MIA +1.5 cashed (LAD lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Otto Lopez

Otto Lopez

SS

1.200OPS

5-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Will Smith

Will Smith

C

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA14-16
2
1
LAD20-10
MIA14-16·LAD20-10
MIA

MIA

14-16

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-44000004
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
2-55021002
SPRINT2622
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
3-55030001
SPRINT28.381
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-33010010
SPRINT2872
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
0-22100011
SPRINT27.354
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
1-44010002
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
1-33011001
SPRINT28.586
C. MorelC. Morel★1B
0-33100011
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
0-44000001
Team8-33332820313
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. JunkJ. Junk★SP
6.0300140
A. BenderA. BenderRP
1.0000000
M. PetersenM. PetersenRP
0.1311000
J. KingJ. KingRP
0.2000000
T. PhillipsT. PhillipsRP
1.0100000
Team9.0711140
LAD

LAD

20-10

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
0-44100001
SPRINT27.867
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT24.74
W. SmithW. Smith★C
3-44031000
SPRINT2744
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-33010011
SPRINT26.123
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-44000000
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-44000000
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.175
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-44000000
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
1-44010001
Team7-3535171014
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
6.0521390
SPRINT2744
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.0100010
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
1.0100010
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
1.0100020
Team9.08213130

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • J. King
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      33%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·83.1 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      13%·81.5 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      7%·79.7 mph·— whiff

LAD

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

7

2

Runs

1

1

Errors

1

Current series

MIA wins series 2-1

Apr 28MIAMIA4@LADLAD5
Apr 29MIAMIA2@LADLAD1today
Apr 29MIAMIA3@LADLAD2

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 28MIAMIA4@LADLAD5
Apr 29MIAMIA2@LADLAD1today
Apr 29MIAMIA3@LADLAD2
Sep 11LADLAD@MIAMIAupcoming
Sep 12LADLAD@MIAMIAupcoming
Sep 13LADLAD@MIAMIAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIAMIA+22431%
LADLAD-28074%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 35 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 8th Inning

MIAMIA
O. Lopez

O. Lopez

SS

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1.200 OPS

J. Junk

J. Junk

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

LADLAD
W. Smith

W. Smith

C

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

MIA beat LAD 2-1. Tucker's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAD vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 5th Inning · 2-0
+14pp→ 63% WP

Stowers · singled to right, Morel scored.

MIABottom 8th Inning · 2-1
+20pp→ 65% WP

Tucker · popped out to shortstop.

MIABottom 9th Inning · 2-1
+13pp→ 90% WP

Kim · flied out to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0100100002
LAD0000000101

Period scoring

MIA won 2 · LAD won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Caissie 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Stowers 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Smith 1

0
0

Inn 9

MIA
LAD

Play-by-play · 551 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  3. B9

    Freeland grounded out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

    −10pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  6. B9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to Alex Freeland

    · ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  7. B9

    · ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  8. B9

    Kim flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

    −13pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  13. B9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to Hyeseong Kim

    · ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  14. B9

    ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  15. B9

    Pages reached on infield single to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

    +9pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  20. B9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to Andy Pages

    ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  21. B9

    ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  22. B9

    T. Hernández flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

    −8pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  29. B9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to Teoscar Hernandez

    ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

  30. B9

    Phillips relieved King

    ·

    MIA 2·LAD 1

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

2

Runs

1

8

Hits

7

1

Errors

1

9

TB

7

0

HR

0

3

BB

1

13

K

4

16

LOB

16

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIA +224/LAD -280

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Hyeseong KimLAD · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

LAD vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.3± 2.2low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.1± 2.7high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

70.1%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    65.5%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    70.0%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    65.3%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.