HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
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THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1ATH
ATH

ATH

4-7

3
2
NYY

NYY

8-3

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
38,147 attended

Line movement

16 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

NYY no-vig %

64.5%

open 64.5%

-1.0-2.0NYY SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL68.5%60.5%NYY NO-VIG %MODEL 66.7%May 4, 10 AMJun 14, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

ATH

league avg

NYY

NYY

.747

OPS

.717

▶

.763

.330

OBP

.319

.330

4.51

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.11

4.85

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.32

1.44

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.19

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 3 · NYY 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH0002000013
NYY2000000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Apr 8·Final/SeriesATH wins series 2-1/VegasNYY -207

Recap · MLB

Athletics went into New York Yankees and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ATH +1.5 cashed (NYY lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1N. KurtzATH+30.7pp
  2. 2D. BednarNYY−29.3pp
  3. 3T. SoderstromATH−24.0pp

ATH · top performer

ATH
Darell Hernaiz

Darell Hernaiz

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Trent Grisham

Trent Grisham

CF

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Athletics at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
N. Kurtz1B
.1895120002
S. LangeliersC
.2895020001
T. SoderstromLF
.2145000002
B. RookerDH
.1503001010
J. WilsonSS
.1915000002
L. ButlerRF
.2003110011
M. Muncy3B
.3024110001
J. McNeil2B
.2674021000
C. CortesRF
.4001000010
- D. HernaizSS
.2221010000
- D. ClarkeCF
.1671000000
Team37392039

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
L. SeverinoSP
5.042257100
S. BarlowRP
1.20000417
H. HarrisRP
0.20002220
E. AlvaradoRP
0.20000111
J. KuhnelRP
1.00000112
Team9.0422715160

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamCF
.1672110021
A. JudgeRF
.2443110011
C. BellingerLF
.2634011001
B. Rice1B
.3334000004
G. StantonDH
.3414000001
J. Chisholm Jr.2B
.1902000022
J.C. EscarraC
.0003001011
A. Rosario3B
.2864010002
R. McMahon3B
.0773000012
Team292420715

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
W. WarrenSP
4.25223585
T. HillRP
1.11000017
C. DovalRP
1.00000112
B. HeadrickRP
1.01000114
D. BednarRP
1.02110221
Team9.093339149

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • L. Severino
    100 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      33%·83.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      26%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·97.0 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      13%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·86.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      4%·86.1 mph·— whiff
  • H. Harris
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      60%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·73.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      15%·84.7 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      10%·84.0 mph·— whiff
  • S. Barlow
    17 pitches·65% CSW
    • CU
      47%·75.6 mph·86% whiff
    • SI
      35%·88.5 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      18%·78.0 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Kuhnel
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • SI
      50%·94.5 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      33%·91.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      8%·89.3 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      8%·95.6 mph·— whiff
  • E. Alvarado
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      82%·98.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      18%·87.4 mph·0% whiff

NYY

  • W. Warren
    85 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      39%·93.0 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      29%·83.8 mph·15% whiff
    • SI
      24%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·81.5 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      4%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Bednar
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • CU
      48%·76.1 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      29%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      24%·90.2 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Hill
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      88%·88.0 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      6%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·75.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Headrick
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      43%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Doval
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FC
      42%·96.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      33%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·95.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

4

3

Runs

2

0

Errors

2

Current series

ATH wins series 2-1

Apr 7ATHATH3@NYYNYY5
Apr 8ATHATH3@NYYNYY2today
Apr 9ATHATH1@NYYNYY0

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 7ATHATH3@NYYNYY5
Apr 8ATHATH3@NYYNYY2today
Apr 9ATHATH1@NYYNYY0
May 30NYYNYY8@ATHATH2
May 31NYYNYY4@ATHATH6
May 31NYYNYY13@ATHATH8

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATHATH+16937%
NYYNYY-20767%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 16 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 9th Inning

ATHATH
D. Hernaiz

D. Hernaiz

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

L. Severino

L. Severino

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 5 BB

NYYNYY
T. Grisham

T. Grisham

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.250 OPS

W. Warren

W. Warren

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ATH beat NYY 3-2. Langeliers's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYY vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHTop 4th Inning · 1-2
+8pp→ 26% WP

McNeil · singled to left, Butler scored, Muncy to second.

ATHTop 9th Inning · 2-2
+24pp→ 81% WP

Langeliers · doubled to left, Kurtz to third.

ATHBottom 9th Inning · 3-2
+10pp→ 86% WP

Escarra · grounded out to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH0002000013
NYY2000000002

Period scoring

ATH won 2 · NYY won 1

0
2

Inn 1

Bellinger 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

McNeil 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Rooker 1

ATH
NYY

Play-by-play · 592 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  2. B9

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  3. B9

    McMahon struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

    −6pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  10. B9

    Joel Kuhnel pitches to Ryan McMahon

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  11. B9

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  12. B9

    Rosario grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

    −8pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  14. B9

    Joel Kuhnel pitches to Amed Rosario

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  15. B9

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  16. B9

    Escarra grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

    −10pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  22. B9

    Joel Kuhnel pitches to J.C. Escarra

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  23. B9

    Kuhnel relieved Alvarado

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  26. T9

    · ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  27. T9

    Wilson struck out looking.

    · ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

    +4pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 3·NYY 2

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

3

Runs

2

9

Hits

4

0

Errors

2

11

TB

4

0

HR

0

3

BB

7

9

K

15

18

LOB

17

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 8·ATH +169/NYY -207

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

NYY vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.3± 3.9low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.2± 2.1medium
  • Carlos RodonNYY
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Shea LangeliersATH
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Paul GoldschmidtNYY
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Henry BolteATH
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Shea LangeliersATH
    2.5± 2.5high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    2.3± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Paul GoldschmidtNYY
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    3.2± 1.8medium
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    3.0± 3.1low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.3%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    64.6%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.4%

    P(NYY win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.1%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.96 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.