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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2DET
MIA

MIA

8-6

0
2
DET

DET

5-9

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
20,285 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

DET spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

DET no-vig %

54.2%

open 54.2%

-1.0-2.0DET SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL58.2%50.2%DET NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 8 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

MIA 0 · DET 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0000000000
DET010010002

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

45.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 968 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 18, 26sim 96
    172
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 96
    111
    21(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 95
    221
    28(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 95
    210
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 94
    24
    6(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 93
    152
    29(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Apr 10·Final/SeriesDET wins series 3-0/VegasDET -131

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off Miami Marlins, 2–0.

DET -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Connor Norby

Connor Norby

1B

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Javier Baez

Javier Baez

SS

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA8-6
0
2
DET5-9
MIA8-6·DET5-9
MIA

MIA

8-6

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-44000002
SPRINT27.765
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-44010002
SPRINT2872
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
0-44000001
SPRINT27.354
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
0-33000000
SPRINT25.614
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
0-33000000
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
0-22000012
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
1-22010011
SPRINT2872
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
0-33000000
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
0-33000001
Team2-2828020029
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PaddackC. Paddack★SP
6.0722141
L. BacharL. BacharRP
2.0100030
Team8.0822171
DET

DET

5-9

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
1-33010011
SPRINT28.278
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-44000001
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
2-44020000
SPRINT28.381
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-44010001
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
1-33110000
SPRINT27.765
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
1-44010002
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-33011001
SPRINT26.123
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-33000000
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
1-33111101
SPRINT27.251
Team8-3131282117
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. MonteroK. Montero★SP
6.0200170
B. HurterB. HurterRP
1.0000010
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.0000100
K. JansenK. JansenRP
1.0000010
Team9.0200290

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • C. Paddack
    96 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      30%·92.7 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      19%·85.1 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      18%·79.1 mph·22% whiff
    • FC
      15%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·77.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      7%·91.9 mph·25% whiff
  • L. Bachar
    34 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      32%·93.0 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      26%·84.6 mph·40% whiff
    • FS
      18%·81.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      15%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·84.7 mph·— whiff

DET

  • K. Montero
    80 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      34%·94.2 mph·8% whiff
    • KC
      20%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·87.3 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      19%·94.4 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      9%·85.3 mph·33% whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      58%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      25%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·85.7 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Jansen
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      92%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·83.0 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hurter
    10 pitches·60% CSW
    • SI
      70%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      30%·81.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

8

0

Runs

2

1

Errors

0

Current series

DET wins series 3-0

Apr 10MIAMIA0@DETDET2today
Apr 11MIAMIA1@DETDET6
Apr 12MIAMIA2@DETDET8

Season series

DET leads series 1-0

Apr 10MIAMIA0@DETDET2today
Apr 11MIAMIA1@DETDET6
Apr 12MIAMIA2@DETDET8

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIAMIA+10948%
DETDET-13157%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 5th Inning

MIAMIA
C. Norby

C. Norby

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

C. Paddack

C. Paddack

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

DETDET
J. Baez

J. Baez

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

K. Montero

K. Montero

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

DET beat MIA 2-0.

Win probability

DET vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETBottom 2nd Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 72% WP

Carpenter · singled to right, Dingler to third.

DETBottom 5th Inning · 0-2
+14pp→ 84% WP

Báez homered to left (354 feet).

DETTop 8th Inning · 0-2
+11pp→ 93% WP

Pauley · lined into double play, to first, Norby doubled off first.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0000000000
DET01001000—2

Period scoring

MIA won 0 · DET won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Torkelson 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIA
DET

Play-by-play · 474 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

  2. T9

    Ramírez flied out to right.

    ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

  7. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Agustin Ramirez

    ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

  8. T9

    ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

  9. T9

    Edwards flied out to center.

    ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

    +3pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

  13. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Xavier Edwards

    ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

  14. T9

    ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

  15. T9

    Marsee struck out looking.

    ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

    +4pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

  21. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Jakob Marsee

    ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

  22. T9

    Jansen relieved Finnegan

    ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

  23. T9

    McKinstry at third base.

    MIA 0·DET 2

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIA 0·DET 2

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIA 0·DET 2

  26. B8

    · ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

  27. B8

    Carpenter struck out looking.

    · ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

    −1pp

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 0·DET 2

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

DET

Home

0

Runs

2

2

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

5

TB

11

0

HR

1

2

BB

1

9

K

7

7

LOB

15

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 8.5·MIA +109/DET -131

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

DET vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.3± 2.2low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    4.5± 3.1low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.6± 1.6high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    1.6± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Liam HicksMIA
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    48.3%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.7%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.3%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.88 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.