Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at MIA?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — May 2, 2026

FINAL+4MIA

PHI

13-20

MIA

16-17

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

15,126 attended

Line movement

88 snapshots

MIA spread

-1.5

open +1.5 · -3.0

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIA no-vig %

54.0%

open 52.2% · +1.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
49.7%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.2%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.1%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.86

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+100

Close price

+108

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

46.0%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at MIA?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

MIA vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.7± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.4± 2.8medium
Zack WheelerPHI
6.3± 2.6low

Hits

Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.3± 1.2high
Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 0.7high
Alec BohmPHI
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.9± 3.8high
Bryce HarperPHI
2.2± 3.8high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.9± 3.5high

RBIs

Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.0± 2.0high
Kyle StowersMIA
0.9± 1.7high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 2.2medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.2± 3.1medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
2.2± 2.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

MIA

.694

OPS

.719

▶

.708

.299

OBP

.319

▶

.322

4.22

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.28

4.07

Team ERA

4.18

4.07

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

9.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

PHI 0 · MIA 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
MIA	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.244	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. SchwarberDH	.210	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. Harper1B	.256	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. GarciaRF	.235	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Stott2B	.204	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Bohm3B	.161	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J.T. RealmutoC	.246	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. StubbsC	.273	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
F. ReyesLF	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Sosa2B	.277	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		27	0	1	0	0	1	10

Player

.244

.210

.256

.235

.204

.161

.246

.273

.125

.277

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. PainterSP	5.0	7	3	3	3	7	99
T. BanksRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	20
T. RichardsRP	2.0	1	0	0	2	2	24
Team	8.0	10	4	4	6	10	143

Player

A. PainterSP

5.0

T. BanksRP

1.0

T. RichardsRP

2.0

Team

8.0

143

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MarseeCF	.175	3	0	0	0	0	2	0
K. StowersLF	.205	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
O. LopezSS	.336	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
X. Edwards2B	.336	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
L. HicksC	.309	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
A. RamirezC	.239	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
C. Norby1B	.247	3	0	2	1	0	1	1
G. Pauley3B	.188	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. RuizRF	.300	4	1	1	0	0	0	3
C. Morel1B	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Sanoja3B	.303	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	4	10	4	1	6	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. MeyerSP	7.0	1	0	0	1	7	83
A. BenderRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	18
A. NardiRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
Team	9.0	1	0	0	1	10	111

Team

PHI

MIA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

MIA vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.