Matchup orbital

PHI

PHI

PHI

13-19

Sat, 4:10 PM EDT

Win prob

47/53

AWAY · HOME

MIA

MIA

MIA

15-17

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Andrew Painter

Andrew Painter

SP · #24

1-2

W-L

5.25

ERA

1.50

WHIP

21

K

24.0

IP

Last 3 starts

@ATLL(1-2)5.2 IP5 ER1 K
vsATLL(1-1)4.0 IP3 ER4 K
vsARI-5.0 IP1 ER7 K

Home starter

Max Meyer

Max Meyer

SP · #23

1-0

W-L

3.30

ERA

1.20

WHIP

33

K

30.0

IP

Last 3 starts

@SF-5.0 IP0 ER5 K
vsSTL-5.1 IP2 ER8 K
@ATL-5.0 IP3 ER5 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8.5
Money+108 / -130

Model edge

Win prob47% / 53%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

SeriesPHI leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Pick a side.

Even matchup per the model — pick a side and we'll send you to the book.

+108Bet PHI ML↗+108Bet PHI ML↗
-130Bet MIA ML↗-130Bet MIA ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗
O/U 8.5Bet the total↗O/U 8.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Projected lineups

Top of the order, top of mind.

Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.

PHI

  1. 1.T. TurnerSS
  2. 2.K. SchwarberDH
  3. 3.B. Harper1B
  4. 4.A. GarciaCF
  5. 5.B. Stott2B
  6. 6.A. Bohm3B
  7. 7.J.T. RealmutoC
  8. 8.G. StubbsLF
  9. 9.F. ReyesRF

MIA

  1. 1.J. MarseeCF
  2. 2.K. StowersRF
  3. 3.O. LopezSS
  4. 4.X. Edwards2B
  5. 5.L. HicksC
  6. 6.A. RamirezDH
  7. 7.C. Norby1B
  8. 8.G. Pauley3B
  9. 9.E. RuizLF
Model vs marketAligned
DraftKings · snapped 10m ago
No edgemodel and market agree on PHIPHI
PHIPHIWin prob axisMIAMIA
Market 54%
Model 53%
0%50%100%
ModelPHI 47%Pre-game prob
MarketPHI 46%No-vig · 4.6% hold
Edge—Within noise
PHIPHI +108/MIAMIA -130Pass · no value
The One modelTossup
Sat, May 2
PHI

PHI

Phillies

13-19

vs53%MIA

MIA★

Marlins

15-17

MIA
PHI 47%win prob53% MIA
MIA 1493 · PHI 1500Box score→
← Back to MLB
MLBGame · Sat, May 25/2 - 4:10 PM EDT
PHI

PHI13-19

PHI

@

15-17MIA

MIA

MIA
SeriesPHI leads series 1-0VegasMIA -130

Preview · MLB

hiladelphia Phillies visit Miami Marlins Saturday at 5/2 - 4:10 PM EDT.

Vegas opened MIA as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 8.5. MIA's moneyline implies a 57% break-even, PHI the inverse. MIA is on a back-to-back.

For bettors: the MIA side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 8.5 total reads near the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedMoneyline ↘ 10 over 6.2hjust now
5/2 - 4:10 PM EDTScheduled
Updated 0s ago
PHI
PHI13-190
5/2 - 4:10 PM EDT
MIA
MIA15-170

Current series

PHI leads series 1-0

May 1PHIPHI6@MIAMIA5
May 2PHIPHI@MIAMIAtoday
May 3PHIPHI@MIAMIAupcoming
May 4PHIPHI@MIAMIAupcoming

Season series

PHI leads series 1-0

May 1PHIPHI6@MIAMIA5
May 2PHIPHI@MIAMIAtoday
May 3PHIPHI@MIAMIAupcoming
May 4PHIPHI@MIAMIAupcoming
Jun 15MIAMIA@PHIPHIupcoming
Jun 16MIAMIA@PHIPHIupcoming
Jun 17MIAMIA@PHIPHIupcoming
Jul 27PHIPHI@MIAMIAupcoming
Jul 28PHIPHI@MIAMIAupcoming
Jul 29PHIPHI@MIAMIAupcoming
Aug 17MIAMIA@PHIPHIupcoming
Aug 18MIAMIA@PHIPHIupcoming
Aug 19MIAMIA@PHIPHIupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI+10848%
MIAMIA-13057%

10· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Line movement · 37 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
PHIPHISP
A. Painter

A. Painter

#24 · 1-2

ERA

5.25

K

21

SV

—

Last 3 starts

4/24@ATLATL5.2 IP · 5 ER · 1 KL(1-2)
4/19vsATLATL4.0 IP · 3 ER · 4 KL(1-1)
4/12vsARIARI5.0 IP · 1 ER · 7 K-
MIAMIASP
M. Meyer

M. Meyer

#23 · 1-0

ERA

3.30

K

33

SV

—

Last 3 starts

4/26@SFSF5.0 IP · 0 ER · 5 K-
4/20vsSTLSTL5.1 IP · 2 ER · 8 K-
4/14@ATLATL5.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
PHIPHI4L · 5R
  1. 1

    T. Turner

    SS

    R
  2. 2

    K. Schwarber

    DH

    L
  3. 3

    B. Harper

    1B

    L
  4. 4

    A. Garcia

    CF

    R
  5. 5

    B. Stott

    2B

    L
  6. 6

    A. Bohm

    3B

    R
  7. 7

    J.T. Realmuto

    C

    R
  8. 8

    G. Stubbs

    LF

    L
  9. 9

    F. Reyes

    RF

    R
MIAMIA4L · 4R · 1S
  1. 1

    J. Marsee

    CF

    L
  2. 2

    K. Stowers

    RF

    L
  3. 3

    O. Lopez

    SS

    R
  4. 4

    X. Edwards

    2B

    B
  5. 5

    L. Hicks

    C

    L
  6. 6

    A. Ramirez

    DH

    R
  7. 7

    C. Norby

    1B

    R
  8. 8

    G. Pauley

    3B

    L
  9. 9

    E. Ruiz

    LF

    R

Scouting report

PHI @ MIA

5/2 - 4:10 PM EDT
StorylinePHI riding a 4-game win streak.

Rest going in

PHIB2B

0 days

last game May 1

MIAB2B

0 days

last game May 1

Model edge vs market

Lean only
Spread

Market

MIA -1.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

8.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

MIA -130

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

PHImetricMIA

13-19

Record

15-17

#13

Conf rank

#10

-1.4

Pt diff

0.0

W4

Streak

L1

5-5

Last 10

5-5

Bullpen used yesterday

PHI

3.0 bullpen IP · heavy

  • O. Kerkering1.0 IP13 P
  • J. Bowlan0.2 IP31 P
  • J. Alvarado0.1 IP10 P
  • B. Keller1.0 IP26 P

W 6-5 · May 1

MIA

4.0 bullpen IP · heavy

  • C. Gibson1.2 IP50 P
  • L. Bachar2.1 IP28 P

L 6-5 · May 1

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

247

Hits

265

18

Errors

23

124

Runs

140

Player box score

PHI

PHI

13-19

0
T. Turner

T. Turner★

SS

OPS

0.598

H-AB

32-127

RBI

11

HR

4

K. Schwarber

K. Schwarber★

LF

OPS

0.716

H-AB

25-116

RBI

20

HR

11

B. Harper

B. Harper★

1B

OPS

0.678

H-AB

31-118

RBI

19

HR

6

A. Garcia

A. Garcia★

RF

OPS

0.560

H-AB

28-116

RBI

11

HR

3

B. Stott

B. Stott★

2B

OPS

0.456

H-AB

19-90

RBI

8

HR

1

A. Bohm

A. Bohm★

3B

OPS

0.355

H-AB

18-110

RBI

14

HR

1

J.T. Realmuto

J.T. Realmuto★

C

OPS

0.574

H-AB

14-54

RBI

4

HR

1

G. Stubbs

G. Stubbs★

C

OPS

0.444

H-AB

2-9

RBI

1

HR

0

F. Reyes

F. Reyes★

LF

OPS

0.429

H-AB

3-21

RBI

1

HR

1

Team total

H-AB

-----

RBI

--

HR

--

A. Painter

A. Painter★

SP

IP

--.--

H

--

ER

--

K

--

Team total

IP

--.--

H

--

ER

--

K

--

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 8.5·PHI +108/MIA -130

DraftKings · via ESPN