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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5ARI
ARI

ARI

6-6

7
2
NYM

NYM

7-5

Citi Field · Queens, New York
33,422 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

NYM no-vig %

55.9%

open 55.9%

-1.0-2.0NYM SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL59.9%51.9%NYM NO-VIG %MODEL 54.3%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 7 · NYM 2 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI1400000207
NYM0000010102

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 1, 26sim 97
    261
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 96
    73
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 96
    111
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 96
    293
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 9, 26sim 96
    297
    21(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 96
    303
    23(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Apr 8·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1/VegasNYM -141

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks went into New York Mets and beat them, 7–2.

ARI +1.5 cashed (NYM lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Ildemaro Vargas

Ildemaro Vargas

1B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Bo Bichette

Bo Bichette

3B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI6-6
7
2
NYM7-5
ARI6-6·NYM7-5
ARI

ARI

6-6

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
1-55111002
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
3-55132000
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-22011020
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
0-44001003
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
0-55000002
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
3-44230000
SPRINT26.941
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
2-44220001
SPRINT29.597
T. TawaT. Tawa★LF
0-22000010
J. BarrosaJ. Barrosa★CF
1-33112010
SPRINT28.688
Team11-34347117048
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. NelsonR. Nelson★SP
5.2511050
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
0.1000000
A. HoffmannA. HoffmannRP
2.0110120
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.0100000
Team9.0721170
NYM

NYM

7-5

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
0-55000001
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
2-44120001
SPRINT25.716
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-44000000
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
1-44110002
SPRINT2993
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
2-44021000
SPRINT26.735
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
0-33001002
SPRINT25.513
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-44000000
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.586
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
1-33010010
Team7-3535272017
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. PetersonD. Peterson★SP
5.0655260
S. ManaeaS. ManaeaRP
4.0522220
Team9.01177480

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • R. Nelson
    86 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      76%·94.8 mph·21% whiff
    • SL
      19%·86.8 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      5%·79.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      1%·90.9 mph·— whiff
  • A. Hoffmann
    33 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      61%·93.7 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      24%·86.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      15%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Clarke
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • CH
      31%·89.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      31%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      19%·92.4 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      13%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Thompson
    3 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      67%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·76.3 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • D. Peterson
    85 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      29%·91.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      22%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·84.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      15%·79.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      15%·84.5 mph·25% whiff
  • S. Manaea
    70 pitches·19% CSW
    • ST
      31%·75.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      30%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·88.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      16%·82.7 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      3%·85.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

7

7

Runs

2

3

Errors

1

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Apr 7ARIARI3@NYMNYM4
Apr 8ARIARI7@NYMNYM2today
Apr 9ARIARI7@NYMNYM1

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 7ARIARI3@NYMNYM4
Apr 8ARIARI7@NYMNYM2today
Apr 9ARIARI7@NYMNYM1
May 9NYMNYM3@ARIARI1
May 9NYMNYM1@ARIARI2
May 10NYMNYM1@ARIARI5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ARIARI+11746%
NYMNYM-14159%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 2nd Inning

ARIARI
I. Vargas

I. Vargas

1B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 2 R · 1.500 OPS

R. Nelson

R. Nelson

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 5 H

NYMNYM
B. Bichette

B. Bichette

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

D. Peterson

D. Peterson

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ARI beat NYM 7-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYM vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 2nd Inning · 4-0
+14pp→ 85% WP

Carroll · doubled to center, Fernandez scored and Barrosa scored, Marte to third.

NYMBottom 6th Inning · 5-1
+6pp→ 16% WP

Baty · singled to center, Bichette scored, Robert Jr. to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI1400000207
NYM0000010102

Period scoring

ARI won 3 · NYM won 1

1
0

Inn 1

Moreno 1

4
0

Inn 2

Carroll 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Baty 1

0
0

Inn 7

2
1

Inn 8

Barrosa 2

Vientos 1

0
0

Inn 9

ARI
NYM

Play-by-play · 570 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  2. B9

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  3. B9

    Lindor grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  12. B9

    Taylor Clarke pitches to Francisco Lindor

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  13. B9

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  14. B9

    Alvarez grounded into double play, third to second to first, Benge out at second.

    · ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

    −2pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  21. B9

    Taylor Clarke pitches to Francisco Alvarez

    · ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  22. B9

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  23. B9

    Benge singled to right.

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

    +1pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  26. B9

    Taylor Clarke pitches to Carson Benge

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  27. B9

    Clarke relieved Hoffmann

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ARI 7·NYM 2

  30. T9

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 2

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

7

Runs

2

11

Hits

7

3

Errors

1

16

TB

8

0

HR

0

4

BB

1

8

K

7

15

LOB

17

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 7.5·ARI +117/NYM -141

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYM vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.9%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    55.1%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.0%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.2%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.