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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1NYM
ARI

ARI

5-6

3
4
NYM

NYM

7-4

Citi Field · Queens, New York
34,753 attended

Line movement

22 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

NYM no-vig %

58.3%

open 58.3%

-1.0-2.0NYM SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL62.3%54.3%NYM NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

ARI 3 · NYM 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYM +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
ARI00003000003
NYM11000001014

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+129

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Tue, Apr 7·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1/VegasNYM -156

Recap · MLB

New York Mets held off Arizona Diamondbacks, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ARI +1.5 cashed (NYM won by 1). Total pushed exactly on 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Gabriel Moreno

Gabriel Moreno

C

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Ronny Mauricio

Ronny Mauricio

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
ARI5-6
3
4
NYM7-4
ARI5-6·NYM7-4
ARI

ARI

5-6

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
2-55020002
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-55110002
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-44100010
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
2-33120010
SPRINT26.428
AA. Del Castillo★DH
1-55012002
SPRINT26.326
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
2-55021000
SPRINT25.29
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
1-55010000
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
0-22000010
J. BarrosaJ. Barrosa★CF
0-33000002
L. BakerL. Baker1B
0-11000001
T. TawaT. TawaLF
0-11000001
Team9-39393930310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. GallenZ. Gallen★SP
5.0521450
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
1.0000000
J. MorilloJ. MorilloRP
1.0000000
J. LoaisigaJ. LoaisigaRP
1.0211010
K. GinkelK. GinkelRP
1.0000010
P. SewaldP. SewaldRP
0.1110000
Team9.1842470
NYM

NYM

7-4

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
2-55220001
SPRINT26.941
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-55010001
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
2-44020001
SPRINT25.310
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
0-22000022
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-33011001
SPRINT26.735
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
0-33000001
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-44000000
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
0-33000010
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
1-33110010
SPRINT25.716
R. MauricioR. MauricioSS
1-11011000
Team8-3333483047
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. PeraltaF. Peralta★SP
4.2333350
H. BrazobanH. BrazobanRP
0.1200000
L. GarciaL. GarciaRP
2.0100000
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
1.0100020
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0200020
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
1.0000010
Team10.09333100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • Z. Gallen
    95 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      35%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·88.8 mph·44% whiff
    • CH
      19%·86.7 mph·30% whiff
    • KC
      12%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Loaisiga
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      38%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·88.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      14%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Ginkel
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      42%·84.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      8%·89.0 mph·— whiff
  • J. Morillo
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      40%·98.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      40%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·79.1 mph·— whiff
  • R. Thompson
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • SI
      100%·88.3 mph·17% whiff
  • P. Sewald
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      100%·89.8 mph·17% whiff

NYM

  • F. Peralta
    101 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      48%·92.5 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      26%·78.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      20%·86.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      6%·83.3 mph·100% whiff
    • CS
      1%·74.7 mph·— whiff
  • L. Garcia
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      52%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      30%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·79.8 mph·67% whiff
  • B. Raley
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • ST
      40%·79.7 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      30%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Williams
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • CH
      56%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      44%·93.5 mph·60% whiff
  • H. Brazoban
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      64%·90.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      29%·95.8 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      7%·97.4 mph·— whiff
  • L. Weaver
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      46%·93.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      38%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·89.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

8

3

Runs

4

1

Errors

1

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Apr 7ARIARI3@NYMNYM4today
Apr 8ARIARI7@NYMNYM2
Apr 9ARIARI7@NYMNYM1

Season series

NYM lead series 1-0

Apr 7ARIARI3@NYMNYM4today
Apr 8ARIARI7@NYMNYM2
Apr 9ARIARI7@NYMNYM1
May 9NYMNYM3@ARIARI1
May 9NYMNYM1@ARIARI2
May 10NYMNYM1@ARIARI5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ARIARI+12944%
NYMNYM-15661%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 5th Inning

ARIARI
G. Moreno

G. Moreno

C

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

Z. Gallen

Z. Gallen

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

NYMNYM
R. Mauricio

R. Mauricio

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

F. Peralta

F. Peralta

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

NYM beat ARI 4-3. Del Castillo's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

NYM vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 5th Inning · 2-2
+18pp→ 37% WP

Del Castillo · singled to right, Carroll and Perdomo scored, Moreno to third.

NYMBottom 8th Inning · 3-2
+15pp→ 52% WP

Baty · singled to center, Taylor to third.

ARITop 9th Inning · 3-3
+16pp→ 57% WP

Marte · singled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
ARI00003000003
NYM11000001014

Period scoring

ARI won 1 · NYM won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Baty 1

0
1

Inn 2

Lindor 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

3
0

Inn 5

Castillo 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Young 1

0
0

Inn 9

0
1

Inn 10

Mauricio 1

ARI
NYM

Play-by-play · 647 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    ·

    ARI 3·NYM 4

  2. B10

    Mauricio singled to right, Lindor scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 3·NYM 4

    +13pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 3·NYM 4

  4. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 3·NYM 3

  5. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ARI 3·NYM 3

  6. B10

    Paul Sewald pitches to Ronny Mauricio

    · ·

    ARI 3·NYM 4

  7. B10

    Mauricio hit for Taylor

    ·

    ARI 3·NYM 3

  8. B10

    · ·

    ARI 3·NYM 3

  9. B10

    Bichette grounded out to second, Lindor to third.

    · ·

    ARI 3·NYM 3

    +2pp

  10. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 3·NYM 3

  11. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 3·NYM 3

  12. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ARI 3·NYM 3

  13. B10

    Paul Sewald pitches to Bo Bichette

    ·

    ARI 3·NYM 3

  14. B10

    Sewald relieved Ginkel

    ·

    ARI 3·NYM 3

  15. B10

    Fernandez as designated hitter.

    ARI 3·NYM 3

  16. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    ARI 3·NYM 3

  17. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    ARI 3·NYM 3

  18. T10

    · ·

    ARI 3·NYM 3

  19. T10

    Tawa struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 3·NYM 3

    +8pp

  20. T10

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ARI 3·NYM 3

  21. T10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ARI 3·NYM 3

  22. T10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 3·NYM 3

  23. T10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ARI 3·NYM 3

  24. T10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ARI 3·NYM 3

  25. T10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 3·NYM 3

  26. T10

    Luke Weaver pitches to Tim Tawa

    · ·

    ARI 3·NYM 3

  27. T10

    · ·

    ARI 3·NYM 3

  28. T10

    Vargas lined out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 3·NYM 3

    +8pp

  29. T10

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 3·NYM 3

  30. T10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 3·NYM 3

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

3

Runs

4

9

Hits

8

1

Errors

1

11

TB

9

0

HR

0

3

BB

4

10

K

7

20

LOB

13

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 7·ARI +129/NYM -156

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

NYM vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.7± 3.3low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.8± 1.0high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Tommy TroyARI
    1.3± 0.7low

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.1± 1.9high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.8± 2.6high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.6± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.9%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    54.1%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.0%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.4%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.47 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 9, 26sim 98
    297
    21(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 97
    111
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 96
    294
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 96
    301
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 96
    261
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    297
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs