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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6ARI
ARI

ARI

7-6

7
1
NYM

NYM

7-6

Citi Field · Queens, New York
35,783 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 6.5

open O/U 6.5

NYM no-vig %

62.2%

open 62.2%

-1.0-2.0NYM SPREADO/U 7.0O/U 6.0TOTAL66.2%58.2%NYM NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 7 · NYM 1 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0000004307
NYM1000000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+153

Close price

+153

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Thu, Apr 9·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1/VegasNYM -186

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks went into New York Mets and beat them, 7–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ARI +1.5 cashed (NYM lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Gabriel Moreno

Gabriel Moreno

C

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Luis Robert Jr.

Luis Robert Jr.

CF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI7-6
7
1
NYM7-6
ARI7-6·NYM7-6
ARI

ARI

7-6

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
0-55000001
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
1-44110011
SPRINT26.941
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-22200020
SPRINT26.838
AA. Del Castillo★DH
1-44111002
SPRINT26.326
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
2-44121000
SPRINT29.597
J. McCannJ. McCann★C
0-22000002
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
0-44101001
T. TawaT. Tawa★LF
1-33011001
J. BarrosaJ. Barrosa★CF
1-44011001
G. MorenoG. MorenoC
2-22122000
SPRINT26.428
Team8-3434787039
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. RodriguezE. Rodriguez★SP
6.0511231
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.0100000
T. RashiT. RashiRP
2.0000030
Team9.0611261
NYM

NYM

7-6

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT26.941
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-33010010
SPRINT25.716
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
1-33111112
SPRINT2993
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
0-44000001
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT28.175
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
0-44000001
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.735
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
0-44000000
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
1-22010000
J. YoungJ. Young1B
0-11000000
Team6-3333161126
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. McLeanN. McLean★SP
6.1322280
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
0.2222000
L. GarciaL. GarciaRP
0.1333100
R. LoveladyR. LoveladyRP
1.2000010
Team9.0877390

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • E. Rodriguez
    102 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      41%·91.0 mph·28% whiff
    • CH
      32%·85.0 mph·21% whiff
    • FC
      16%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·77.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      2%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rashi
    21 pitches·52% CSW
    • SL
      43%·83.8 mph·63% whiff
    • FF
      29%·90.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      14%·86.3 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      10%·79.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      5%·75.0 mph·— whiff
  • T. Clarke
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SL
      50%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.7 mph·— whiff

NYM

  • N. McLean
    100 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      48%·94.6 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      16%·84.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      10%·81.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      10%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Garcia
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      52%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      33%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·80.7 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Lovelady
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      44%·82.2 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      22%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·91.5 mph·— whiff
  • L. Weaver
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • CH
      44%·86.2 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      31%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·92.0 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

6

7

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Apr 7ARIARI3@NYMNYM4
Apr 8ARIARI7@NYMNYM2
Apr 9ARIARI7@NYMNYM1today

Season series

ARI leads series 2-1

Apr 7ARIARI3@NYMNYM4
Apr 8ARIARI7@NYMNYM2
Apr 9ARIARI7@NYMNYM1today
May 9NYMNYM3@ARIARI1
May 9NYMNYM1@ARIARI2
May 10NYMNYM1@ARIARI5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ARIARI+15340%
NYMNYM-18665%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 26pp · Top 7th Inning

ARIARI
G. Moreno

G. Moreno

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

E. Rodriguez

E. Rodriguez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

NYMNYM
L. Robert Jr.

L. Robert Jr.

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

N. McLean

N. McLean

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ARI beat NYM 7-1. Moreno's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYM vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 6th Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 29% WP

Tawa · singled to center.

ARITop 7th Inning · 1-1
+26pp→ 56% WP

Moreno · doubled to right, Perdomo scored, Fernandez to third.

ARITop 7th Inning · 4-1
+12pp→ 87% WP

Barrosa · tripled to right, Thomas scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0000004307
NYM1000000001

Period scoring

ARI won 2 · NYM won 1

0
1

Inn 1

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

4
0

Inn 7

Moreno 1

3
0

Inn 8

Castillo 1

0
0

Inn 9

ARI
NYM

Play-by-play · 554 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  2. B9

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  3. B9

    Torrens grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  6. B9

    Taylor Rashi pitches to Luis Torrens

    · ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  7. B9

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  8. B9

    Baty struck out swinging.

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  13. B9

    Taylor Rashi pitches to Brett Baty

    · ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  14. B9

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  15. B9

    Alvarez grounded out to third.

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  18. B9

    Taylor Rashi pitches to Francisco Alvarez

    · ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  19. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  20. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  21. T9

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  22. T9

    Vargas grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  26. T9

    Richard Lovelady pitches to Ildemaro Vargas

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  27. T9

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  28. T9

    Marte flied out to right.

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 7·NYM 1

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

7

Runs

1

8

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

15

TB

10

0

HR

1

3

BB

2

9

K

6

12

LOB

12

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 6.5·ARI +153/NYM -186

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 7, 26sim 98
    293
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 96
    294
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 96
    303
    23(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 96
    245
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 96
    72
    15(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 20, 26sim 96
    243
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

NYM vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.7± 3.3low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.8± 1.0high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Tommy TroyARI
    1.3± 0.7low

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.1± 1.9high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.8± 2.6high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.6± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    53.6%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.1%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.9%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.04 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.