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FINAL+4ATL
ATH

ATH

1-5

1
5
ATL

ATL

4-2

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
27,568 attended

Line movement

6 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

ATL no-vig %

66.9%

open 66.9%

-1.0-2.0ATL SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL70.9%62.9%ATL NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATH 1 · ATL 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH0001000001
ATL020300005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+189

Close price

+189

Open no-vig

33.1%

Close no-vig

33.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Wed, Apr 1·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1/VegasATL -232

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves held off Athletics, 5–1.

ATL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Shea Langeliers

Shea Langeliers

C

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Drake Baldwin

Drake Baldwin

C

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH1-5
1
5
ATL4-2
ATH1-5·ATL4-2
ATH

ATH

1-5

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT27.148
A. IbanezA. Ibanez★2B
0-22000000
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
2-44121100
SPRINT28.586
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-33000001
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-33000002
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
0-33000001
A. WynnsA. Wynns★C
1-33010000
SPRINT24.96
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
0-33000000
D. ClarkeD. Clarke★CF
0-22000000
J. McNeilJ. McNeil2B
0-22000002
SPRINT25.920
L. ButlerL. ButlerRF
0-11000000
Team4-3030141106
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. SeverinoL. Severino★SP
3.1444570
E. AlvaradoE. AlvaradoRP
0.2211000
H. HarrisH. HarrisRP
2.0000020
L. MedinaL. MedinaRP
2.0100010
Team8.07555100
ATL

ATL

4-2

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
0-22000020
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
2-33124010
SPRINT26.632
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-44011002
SPRINT25.513
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
1-33010011
SPRINT27.765
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
0-44000002
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-33100011
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-44000002
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
2-44220002
SPRINT25.716
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
1-33110000
SPRINT26.428
Team7-30305750510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SaleC. Sale★SP
6.0111031
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0100010
D. LeeD. LeeRP
1.0100010
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0100010
Team9.0411061

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • L. Severino
    91 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      41%·96.4 mph·24% whiff
    • FC
      26%·94.7 mph·43% whiff
    • ST
      22%·85.9 mph·10% whiff
    • FF
      5%·97.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      3%·87.7 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      2%·88.9 mph·100% whiff
  • L. Medina
    27 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      44%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      26%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·89.7 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      7%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Alvarado
    20 pitches·10% CSW
    • SI
      60%·96.9 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      20%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
  • H. Harris
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      47%·94.1 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      42%·74.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      5%·84.1 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      5%·84.6 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • C. Sale
    79 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      41%·75.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      38%·92.5 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      16%·84.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      5%·91.9 mph·33% whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      65%·93.5 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      29%·87.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      6%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lee
    15 pitches·47% CSW
    • SL
      73%·83.8 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      20%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·83.9 mph·— whiff
  • R. Suarez
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      50%·98.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      33%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·97.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

7

1

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

Mar 30ATHATH0@ATLATL4
Mar 31ATHATH5@ATLATL2
Apr 1ATHATH1@ATLATL5today

Season series

ATL wins series 2-1

Mar 30ATHATH0@ATLATL4
Mar 31ATHATH5@ATLATL2
Apr 1ATHATH1@ATLATL5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ATHATH+18935%
ATLATL-23270%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

ATHATH
S. Langeliers

S. Langeliers

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

L. Severino

L. Severino

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 5 BB

ATLATL
D. Baldwin

D. Baldwin

C

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

C. Sale

C. Sale

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 1 H

How it ended

ATL beat ATH 5-1.

Win probability

ATL vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+13pp→ 87% WP

Baldwin · singled to left, Albies scored and Smith scored, Acuña Jr. to second.

ATHTop 4th Inning · 1-2
+7pp→ 21% WP

Langeliers · homered to left (355 feet).

ATLBottom 4th Inning · 1-4
+11pp→ 91% WP

Baldwin · doubled to center, Dubón scored and Smith scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH0001000001
ATL02030000—5

Period scoring

ATH won 0 · ATL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Baldwin 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
3

Inn 4

Langeliers 1

Baldwin 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

ATH
ATL

Play-by-play · 513 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  2. T9

    Langeliers popped out to shortstop.

    · ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

    +0.6pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  6. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Shea Langeliers

    · ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  7. T9

    · ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  8. T9

    McNeil struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

    +1pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  15. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Jeff McNeil

    · ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  16. T9

    ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  17. T9

    Wilson doubled to left.

    ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

    −0.9pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  19. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Jacob Wilson

    ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  20. T9

    ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  21. T9

    Butler grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

    +0.7pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  23. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  24. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  29. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Lawrence Butler

    ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

  30. T9

    Iglesias relieved Lee

    ·

    ATH 1·ATL 5

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

1

Runs

5

4

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

8

TB

8

1

HR

0

0

BB

5

6

K

10

4

LOB

12

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 7.5·ATH +189/ATL -232

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

ATL vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    6.0± 3.1low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.6± 3.2high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.6± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Brent RookerATH
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    2.7± 2.2low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.4%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    54.9%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.5%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.2%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 30, 26sim 97
    110
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 97
    293
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 96
    261
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 96
    115
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    297
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 96
    301
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 15 players in cohort
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586