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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6SD
SF

SF

2-4

1
7
SD

SD

2-4

Petco Park · San Diego, California
41,491 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

SD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SD no-vig %

57.7%

open 57.7%

-1.0-2.0SD SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL61.7%53.7%SD NO-VIG %MODEL 54.7%May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 7 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SF 1 · SD 7 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF0000001001
SD100011047

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+126

Close price

+126

Open no-vig

42.3%

Close no-vig

42.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Wed, Apr 1·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1/VegasSD -153

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres held off San Francisco Giants, 7–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

SD -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total pushed exactly on 8.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez

2B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Ramon Laureano

Ramon Laureano

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF2-4
1
7
SD2-4
SF2-4·SD2-4
SF

SF

2-4

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-44000002
SPRINT27.457
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
0-33000012
SPRINT25.716
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
0-44000002
SPRINT27.251
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
3-44130000
SPRINT26.632
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-44000003
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
0-33000011
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
1-33011011
SPRINT27.662
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
0-22000002
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
0-33000001
J. EncarnacionJ. EncarnacionRF
0-11000000
Team4-31311410314
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. HouserA. Houser★SP
5.1631140
C. KilianC. KilianRP
1.2000020
J. ButtoJ. ButtoRP
0.1344411
R. BoruckiR. BoruckiRP
0.2000000
Team8.0975571
SD

SD

2-4

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-44011010
SPRINT28.483
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
0-44001011
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
1-55110001
SPRINT28.688
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT24.32
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
2-44222100
SPRINT2872
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
1-33110011
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
2-33221010
SPRINT26.735
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
0-44000001
B. JohnsonB. Johnson★RF
1-33010012
Team9-3434795157
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. PivettaN. Pivetta★SP
5.0100280
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
1.0000020
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
1.2211110
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.1100030
Team9.04113140

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • A. Houser
    86 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      50%·94.4 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      21%·85.9 mph·23% whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      13%·88.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      2%·81.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Butto
    28 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      50%·91.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      18%·85.1 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      14%·88.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      14%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·80.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Kilian
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      53%·97.3 mph·25% whiff
    • KC
      27%·79.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·84.6 mph·— whiff
  • R. Borucki
    3 pitches·67% CSW
    • SL
      67%·85.7 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      33%·81.3 mph·100% whiff

SD

  • N. Pivetta
    82 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      68%·94.7 mph·24% whiff
    • ST
      12%·82.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      10%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      1%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Morejon
    32 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      63%·98.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      16%·91.5 mph·50% whiff
  • M. Miller
    19 pitches·53% CSW
    • FF
      53%·100.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      42%·87.3 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      5%·93.8 mph·— whiff
  • J. Estrada
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      85%·95.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      8%·82.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·87.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

9

1

Runs

7

2

Errors

0

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

Mar 31SFSF3@SDSD2
Apr 1SFSF9@SDSD3
Apr 1SFSF1@SDSD7today

Season series

SF leads series 2-1

Mar 31SFSF3@SDSD2
Apr 1SFSF9@SDSD3
Apr 1SFSF1@SDSD7today
May 5SDSD2@SFSF3
May 6SDSD10@SFSF5
May 6SDSD5@SFSF1
Jul 31SFSF@SDSDupcoming
Aug 1SFSF@SDSDupcoming
Aug 2SFSF@SDSDupcoming
Aug 2SFSF@SDSDupcoming
Sep 12SDSD@SFSFupcoming
Sep 12SDSD@SFSFupcoming
Sep 13SDSD@SFSFupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SD -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SFSF+12644%
SDSD-15360%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SD -1.5↗SpreadBet SD -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 1st Inning

SFSF
L. Arraez

L. Arraez

2B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

A. Houser

A. Houser

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

SDSD
R. Laureano

R. Laureano

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

N. Pivetta

N. Pivetta

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SD beat SF 7-1.

Win probability

SD vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 69% WP

Merrill · scored on error, Machado safe at first on error by first baseman Schmitt.

SDBottom 5th Inning · 0-2
+9pp→ 85% WP

Sheets · scored on error, Bogaerts safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Chapman, Bogaerts safe at second on error, Tatis Jr. safe at third on error.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF0000001001
SD10001104—7

Period scoring

SF won 1 · SD won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Merrill 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Sheets 1

0
1

Inn 6

Sheets 1

1
0

Inn 7

Bader 1

0
4

Inn 8

Laureano 2

0

Inn 9

SF
SD

Play-by-play · 542 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  2. T9

    Bader struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  5. T9

    Arraez to third on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  6. T9

    Arraez to third on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  8. T9

    Arraez to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  9. T9

    Arraez to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  11. T9

    Mason Miller pitches to Harrison Bader

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  12. T9

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  13. T9

    Lee struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  18. T9

    Mason Miller pitches to Jung Hoo Lee

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  19. T9

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  20. T9

    Chapman struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  25. T9

    Mason Miller pitches to Matt Chapman

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  26. T9

    ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  27. T9

    Arraez singled to right.

    ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 1·SD 7

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

SD

Home

1

Runs

7

4

Hits

9

2

Errors

0

5

TB

16

0

HR

1

3

BB

5

14

K

7

14

LOB

18

Betting line

SD -1.5·O/U 8·SF +126/SD -153

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 31, 26sim 97
    115
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 97
    297
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 96
    111
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 96
    293
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 9, 26sim 96
    297
    21(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 96
    238
    17(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SD vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.4± 2.1high
  • Gavin SheetsSD
    1.8± 3.1high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high
  • Harrison BaderSF
    0.7± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.4± 2.6low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.5%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    55.4%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.4%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.1%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.