
SF
2-4

SD
2-4
Line movement
8 snapshots
SD spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
SD no-vig %
57.7%
open 57.7%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
SD wins
SF 1 · SD 7 (by 6)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked SD +5pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| SD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+126
Close price
+126
Open no-vig
42.3%
Close no-vig
42.3%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Recap · MLB
an Diego Padres held off San Francisco Giants, 7–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
SD -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total pushed exactly on 8.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SF · top performer

Luis Arraez
2B
4-3
AB-H
1
R
0
RBI
SD · top performer

Ramon Laureano
LF
4-2
AB-H
2
R
2
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


SF
2-4
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT27.457 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
SPRINT25.716 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT27.251 | ||||||||
| 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT26.632 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT27.662 | ||||||||
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 4-31 | 31 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 5.1 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 0.1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 8.0 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
SD
2-4
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT28.483 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.688 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT24.32 | ||||||||
| 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT2872 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT26.735 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Team | 9-34 | 34 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 5.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantSF
SD
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
4
Hits
9
1
Runs
7
2
Errors
0
Current series
SF wins series 2-1
Season series
SF leads series 2-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SD -1.5
Total
8.0
Defensive · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 8 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.0
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 1st Inning
L. Arraez
2BBatter of the game
3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS
A. Houser
SPStarting pitcher
5.1 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 1 BB
R. Laureano
LFBatter of the game
2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS
N. Pivetta
SPStarting pitcher
5.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 2 BB
How it ended
SD beat SF 7-1.
Win probability
SD vs SF
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMerrill · scored on error, Machado safe at first on error by first baseman Schmitt.
Sheets · scored on error, Bogaerts safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Chapman, Bogaerts safe at second on error, Tatis Jr. safe at third on error.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| SD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | — | 7 |
Period scoring
SF won 1 · SD won 4
Inn 1
Merrill 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Sheets 1
Inn 6
Sheets 1
Inn 7
Bader 1
Inn 8
Laureano 2
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 542 plays
· ·
SF 1·SD 7
Bader struck out swinging.
· ·
SF 1·SD 7
Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
SF 1·SD 7
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
SF 1·SD 7
Arraez to third on fielder's indifference.
·
SF 1·SD 7
Arraez to third on fielder's indifference.
·
SF 1·SD 7
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking
· ·
SF 1·SD 7
Arraez to second on fielder's indifference.
·
SF 1·SD 7
Arraez to second on fielder's indifference.
·
SF 1·SD 7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
SF 1·SD 7
Mason Miller pitches to Harrison Bader
· ·
SF 1·SD 7
· ·
SF 1·SD 7
Lee struck out swinging.
· ·
SF 1·SD 7
Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
SF 1·SD 7
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
SF 1·SD 7
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
SF 1·SD 7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
SF 1·SD 7
Mason Miller pitches to Jung Hoo Lee
· ·
SF 1·SD 7
· ·
SF 1·SD 7
Chapman struck out swinging.
· ·
SF 1·SD 7
Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
SF 1·SD 7
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
SF 1·SD 7
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
SF 1·SD 7
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
SF 1·SD 7
Mason Miller pitches to Matt Chapman
· ·
SF 1·SD 7
·
SF 1·SD 7
Arraez singled to right.
·
SF 1·SD 7
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
·
SF 1·SD 7
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
SF 1·SD 7
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
·
SF 1·SD 7
Team stats
SF
Away
Stat
SD
Home
1
Runs
7
4
Hits
9
2
Errors
0
5
TB
16
0
HR
1
3
BB
5
14
K
7
14
LOB
18
Betting line
SD -1.5·O/U 8·SF +126/SD -153
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohortPlayer projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 74 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
54.5%
ensemble · SD favored
Elo Static
55.4%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.4%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.1%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.94 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.